Early Detection of Terrorism Outbreaks Using Prospective Space–Time Scan Statistics

Terrorism is a complex phenomenon with high uncertainty involving a myriad of dynamic known and unknown factors. It is and will remain a challenge to predict or detect terrorism outbreaks at an early stage. This research presents an alternative approach for modeling terrorism activity, one that monitors and detects space–time clusters of terrorist incidents using prospective space–time scan statistics. Such clusters provide indicators of potential outbreaks of terrorist incidents. To evaluate the effectiveness of the approach, we analyze the terrorist incidents in the Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism's (START) Global Terrorism Database (GTD) from 1998 to 2004. Clusters of terrorist events are detected at each time stamp and life trajectories of these clusters are constructed based on their space–time relationship to each other. Through the life trajectories and trends of clusters, we demonstrate how space–time scan statistics detect terrorism outbreaks at an early stage.     

Gender,Place, and Social Contacts: Understanding Awareness of Vulnerability to Terrorism

Abstract

Creating resiliency, accomplished in part by individuals preparing for disaster, is the primary strategy outside of law enforcement for responding to the threat of urban terrorism. Individuals prepare when they perceive a need to do so, yet little is known about what shapes a person's awareness of vulnerability to terrorism. Because evidence indicates that social contacts act as conduits of information and affect perception of risk to natural hazards, it is possible that such contacts also affect terrorism vulnerability awareness. Because social contacts are also known to be systematically segmented by gender and location, we hypothesized that conversations about terrorism vary by gender and place, specifically the home and work place. Drawing on data from 93 interviews with householders in Boston, the study demonstrates that: (1) family networks generated discussions of home preparedness, whereas workplace networks engaged a wider variety of topics; (2) women discussed terrorism more frequently and in greater depth than did men; and (3) women heard more preparedness messages for the home than did men, whereas men undertook preparedness activities external to the home. The findings bridge geography and terrorism studies by theorizing emplaced and subjective human experiences that prompt conversations about terrorism. These conversations, in turn, help urban emergency managers and risk-hazards geographers promote rational dialogue and action vis-à-vis terrorism. Hazards researchers have shown that the more people discuss terrorism, the less they seek extreme and unwarranted responses.     

Geodynamic evolution of a forearc rift in the southernmost Mariana Arc

The southernmost Mariana forearc stretched to accommodate opening of the Mariana Trough backarc basin in late Neogene time, erupting basalts at 3.7–2.7 Ma that are now exposed in the Southeast Mariana Forearc Rift (SEMFR). Today, SEMFR is a broad zone of extension that formed on hydrated, forearc lithosphere and overlies the shallow subducting slab (slab depth ≤ 30–50 km). It comprises NW–SE trending subparallel deeps, 3–16 km wide, that can be traced ≥ ∼30 km from the trench almost to the backarc spreading center, the Malaguana‐Gadao Ridge (MGR). While forearcs are usually underlain by serpentinized harzburgites too cold to melt, SEMFR crust is mostly composed of Pliocene, low‐K basaltic to basaltic andesite lavas that are compositionally similar to arc lavas and backarc basin (BAB) lavas, and thus defines a forearc region that recently witnessed abundant igneous activity in the form of seafloor spreading. SEMFR igneous rocks have low Na₈, Ti₈, and Fe₈, consistent with extensive melting, at ∼23 ± 6.6 km depth and 1239 ± 40°C, by adiabatic decompression of depleted asthenospheric mantle metasomatized by slab‐derived fluids. Stretching of pre‐existing forearc lithosphere allowed BAB‐like mantle to flow along the SEMFR and melt, forming new oceanic crust. Melts interacted with pre‐existing forearc lithosphere during ascent. The SEMFR is no longer magmatically active and post‐magmatic tectonic activity dominates the rift.     

Stability of the subseismic wave equation for the Earth's fluid core

Abstract

The effects of compressibility on the stability of internal oscillations in the Earth's fluid core are examined in the context of the subseismic approximation for the equations of motion describing a rotating, stratified, self-gravitating, compressible fluid in a thick shell. It is shown that in the case of a bounded fluid the results are closely analogous to those derived under the Boussinesq approximation.     

Mafic magmas from Mount Baker in the northern Cascade arc,Washington: probes into mantle and crustal processes

Five mafic lava flows located on the southern flank of Mount Baker are among the most primitive in the volcanic field. A comprehensive dataset of whole rock and mineral chemistry reveals the diversity of these mafic lavas that come from distinct sources and have been variably affected by ascent through the crust. Disequilibrium textures present in all of the lavas indicate that crustal processes have affected the magmas. Despite this evidence, mantle source characteristics have been retained and three primitive endmember lava types are represented. These include (1) modified low-K tholeiitic basalt (LKOT-like), (2) typical calc-alkaline (CA) lavas, and (3) high-Mg basaltic andesite and andesite (HMBA and HMA). The Type 1 endmember, the basalt of Park Butte (49.3–50.3 wt% SiO₂, Mg# 64–65), has major element chemistry similar to LKOT found elsewhere in the Cascades. Park Butte also has the lowest overall abundances of trace elements (with the exception of the HREE), indicating it is either derived from the most depleted mantle source or has undergone the largest degree of partial melting. The Type 2 endmember is represented by the basalts of Lake Shannon (50.7–52.6 wt% SiO₂, Mg# 58–62) and Sulphur Creek (51.2–54.6 wt% SiO₂, Mg# 56–57). These two lavas are comparable to calc-alkaline rocks found in arcs worldwide and have similar trace element patterns; however, they differ from each other in abundances of REE, indicating variation in degree of partial melting or fractionation. The Type 3 endmember is represented by the HMBA of Tarn Plateau (51.8–54.0 wt% SiO₂, Mg# 68–70) and the HMA of Glacier Creek (58.3–58.7 wt% SiO₂, Mg# 63–64). The strongly depleted HREE nature of these Type 3 units and their decreasing Mg# with increasing SiO₂ suggests fractionation from a high-Mg basaltic parent derived from a source with residual garnet. Another basaltic andesite unit, Cathedral Crag (52.2–52.6 wt% SiO₂, Mg# 55–58), is an Mg-poor differentiate of the Type 3 endmember. The calc-alkaline lavas are least enriched in a subduction component (lowest H₂O, Sr/P_N, and Ba/Nb), the LKOT-like lavas are intermediate (moderate Sr/P_N and Ba/Nb), and the HMBA are most enriched (highest H₂O, Sr/P_N and Ba/Nb). The generation of the LKOT-like and calc-alkaline lavas can be successfully modeled by partial melting of a spinel lherzolite with variability in composition of slab flux and/or mantle source depletion. The HMBA lavas can be successfully modeled by partial melting of a garnet lherzolite with slab flux compositionally similar to the other lava types, or less likely by partial melting of a spinel lherzolite with a distinctly different, HREE-depleted slab flux.     

The Effects of Integrated Marsh Management (IMM) on Salt Marsh Vegetation,Nekton, and Birds

An integrated marsh management (IMM) project in an urbanized watershed on Long Island, New York, USA, aimed to mitigate salt marsh degradation and to reduce mosquito production by an innovative combination of restoration and open marsh water management methods. The grid ditch network at two treatment marshes was replaced with naturalized tidal channels and ponds. Effects of the hydrologic alterations were monitored utilizing a before–after–control–impact approach. The treatment marshes experienced a number of beneficial outcomes including a fourfold reduction in the invasive Phragmites australis and increased native vegetation cover in the most degraded portions of the marsh, increased abundance and diversity of marsh killifish and estuarine nekton species, higher shorebird and waterfowl densities, and increased avian species diversity. The successful implementation of IMM concept led to improved marsh health and diminished mosquito production. Therefore, this study may serve as a template for similar large-scale integrated salt marsh restoration projects.     

Sub-Saharan African urbanisation and global environmental change

Scientific evidence for global environmental change in Africa presents a prima facia case for increased human migration and displacement. Closer scrutiny of the evidence on demographic change, however, suggests that migration and displacement are less important variables in explaining the human dimensions of global environmental change on the continent than is commonly projected. Natural population growth in cities is a more important dynamic in the evolving system of human settlement in Africa and this significant shift in where people live, both now and in the future is overlooked by the emphasis on the potential impact of environmentally induced migration. Even without any movement from the countryside, cities represent the fastest growing sector of the sub-Saharan African population. The existing vulnerability of African cities, with their fast growing populations and weak management means any environmental change is likely to have significant consequences for cities. Taking the sub-Saharan African demographic evidence seriously means that the scholarly and policy emphasis currently directed to GEC migration and displacement might be more effectively redirected to questions of the interface between global environmental change and urban areas.     

The long term operation of a biologically based treatment system that removes As, S and Zn from industrial (smelter operation) landfill seepage

Passive treatment systems have a long history in the remediation of mining impacted water. The functioning of these systems is poorly understood, in particular the microbial processes that underpin metal removal. A biologically based engineered wetland treatment system that has operated in Trail, B.C. to treat seepage from a historic Pb and Zn smelter landfill, was investigated. The system has functioned for more than a decade, an unusually long life span for a passive bioreactor design. The study focuses on the 5a of operation from 2003 until 2007. Arsenic is a major contaminant in the ore that is processed in Trail, which has caused high As concentrations in the seepage. In addition to As, Zn and Cd removal were investigated. During the 5-a period, the system sequestered 2990 kg of As, 7700 kg of Zn and 85 kg of Cd. Nearly 90% of these elements were removed in two biochemical reactors (BCRs) that comprise the first two components of the six cell system, with the remainder removed in plant-based polishing cells. Average input concentrations over the 5-a period were 2.3 and 4.1 mM for As and Zn, respectively and 0.45 μM for Cd. Final output concentrations were reduced to 0.01 mM for As, 0.05 mM for Zn and 0.18 μM for Cd. Sulfur removal averaged 34% of input concentration. Analysis of mineral formation in the system using X-ray diffraction and scanning electron microscopy indicated kottigite (Zn₃(AsO₄)₂⋅8H₂O) and sphalerite (ZnS) as the major mineral phases controlling As and Zn sequestration; Cd appears to be immobilized as CdS. Evidence for orpiment was obtained from X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XANES) studies, and arsenopyrite was not detected. Although microbial activity dominates the removal of Zn, As and Cd from the soluble phase, abiotic removal mechanisms contribute including sorption of As and Zn to biosolids and filtration of metal precipitates by the solid matrix. The removal of toxic elements over the period appeared to be relatively consistent. Seasonal fluctuations, a large spike in input element concentrations over a 2-month period, and removal of the two biochemical reactors during a period of reconstruction appeared to have relatively little impact on the system as a whole.     

Solubility and near-equilibrium dissolution rates of quartz in dilute NaCl solutions at 398-473 K under alkaline conditions

The dissolution-precipitation of quartz controls porosity and permeability in many lithologies and may be the best studied mineral-water reaction. However, the rate of quartz-water reaction is relatively well characterized far from equilibrium but relatively unexplored near equilibrium. We present kinetic data for quartz as equilibrium is approached from undersaturation and more limited data on the approach from supersaturated conditions in 0.1 molal NaCl + NaOH + NaSiO(OH)₃ solutions with pH 8.2-9.7 at 398, 423, 448, and 473 K. We employed a potentiometric technique that allows precise determination of solution speciation within 2 kJ mol⁻¹ of equilibrium without the need for to perturb the system through physical sampling and chemical analysis. Slightly higher equilibrium solubilities between 423 and 473 K were found than reported in recent compilations. Apparent activation energies of 29 and 37 kJ mol⁻¹ are inferred for rates of dissolution at two surface sites with different values of connectedness: dissolution at Q¹ or Q² silicon sites, respectively. The dissolution mechanism varies with ΔG such that reactions at both sites control dissolution up until a critical free energy value above which only reactions at Q¹ sites are important. When our near-equilibrium dissolution rates are extrapolated far from equilibrium, they agree within propagated uncertainty at 398 K with a recently published model by Bickmore et al. (2008). However, our extrapolated rates become progressively slower than model predictions with increasing temperature. Furthermore, we see no dependence of the postulated Q¹ reaction rate on pH, and a poorly-constrained pH dependence of the postulated Q² rate. Our slow extrapolated rates are presumably related to the increasing contribution of dissolution at Q³ sites far from equilibrium. The use of the potentiometric technique for rate measurement will yield both rate data and insights into the mechanisms of dissolution over a range of chemical affinity. Such measurements are needed to model the evolution of many natural systems quantitatively.     

The formation of metastable aluminosilicates in the Al-Si-H2O system: Results from solution chemistry and solid-state NMR spectroscopy

We present the results of a series of experiments designed to probe the interactions between Al and the amorphous silica surface as a function of thermodynamic driving forces. The results from ²⁷Al single pulse magic angle spinning (SP/MAS) and ²⁷Al{¹H} rotational echo double resonance (REDOR) allow us to identify the reaction products and constrain their structure. In all cases, despite low Al and Si concentrations we observe the formation of metastable aluminosilicates. Results from low temperature experiments indicate that despite thermodynamic driving forces for the formation of gibbsite we observe the precipitation of separate octahedrally coordinated Al (Al^[6]) and tetrahedrally coordinated Al (Al^[4]) silicate phases. At higher temperatures the Al^[4] silicate phase dominates the speciation. Structural models derived from the NMR data are also proposed, and the results are discussed as they relate to previous work on Al/Si cycling.