天津滨海新区地面沉降趋势预测

地面沉降是我国主要的地质灾害之一,评价和预测地面沉降的发展趋势十分必要。本文引入实测沉降数学模型中的双曲线型沉降模型、指数型沉降模型和成长曲线型沉降模型,结合钻孔全断面分布式精细化监测系统获取地表以下不同层位连续的变形情况,建立了基于分布式光纤监测地层变形数据的地面沉降预测模型,可精细化实现地面沉降潜力评价。以天津市滨海新区G06光纤监测钻孔结果为例,对比了3种沉降模型的预测效果,结果表明：天津滨海地区地面沉降曲线呈现非线性衰减特征,2017年10月至2019年12月,累计沉降量已达52.4 mm,预计极限沉降量约为92.6 mm,仍有约43.4%的沉降潜力,沉降空间较大,并预计将于2050年进入沉降稳定阶段。该地区3.4~18.4 m的黏土质粉砂和粉细砂层当前沉降量较大,是目前地面沉降的主要层位,即“优势层”;18.4~38.4 m的粉质黏土和黏土质粉砂层虽当前沉降量较小但其剩余沉降量较大且沉降持续时间较长,需长期重点关注其沉降变形情况,是后期监测的“优先层”。     

The radular morphology of Nassariidae (Gastropoda: Caenogastropoda) from China

The family Nassariidae includes a number of species that are distributed throughout the world. Each species has a characteristic shell shape, tooth shape, and behavior. However, the classification of species in this family of the Rhachiglossa is controversial. We describe the radulae of 22 species from China in detail using optical and scanning electron microscopy. These species are considered to be representatives of two subfamilies, two genera, and 10 subgenera. Our results suggest that the morphology of the central tooth and the pair of lateral teeth and the presence or absence of a pair of intermediate accessory lateral teeth could be used to distinguish among species. We found no support for the subgeneric differentiation of the species. However, the presence or absence of the intermediate lateral accessory plate was characteristic of species divisions. We noted sexual dimorphism in the shape of the teeth in some species, and considerable variability of the shape of teeth within a single species. Based on our results, the genus Nassarius cannot be split into subgenera using radula morphology.     

北太平洋海温异常对我国降水影响的数值试验

利用全球大气环流模式 (OSU- AGCM) ,作中纬度北太平洋热源异常强迫的数值试验 ,分析中纬度北太平洋海温异常对降水的影响。结果表明 ,中纬度北太平洋大范围海温降低 ,将造成东北地区季内降水偏多 ,而我国 40°N以南大部分地区降水偏少 ;同时 ,北太平洋中低纬度地区降水将发生显著的变化。通过分析海温异常所造成的大气物理量场的变化 ,就海温异常对降水的影响机制进行了探讨 ,得出一些有益的结果。     

地下工程软弱岩体围岩结构的地震探测技术

控制地下工程软弱岩体特征的一个重要前提是围岩工程地质条件评价以及围岩的地质结构的定量认识,而目前软岩巷道支护难的主要原因是对巷道工程地质条件和围岩结构认识不清、支护对象不明确。基于以上分析,本文以显德汪矿主运输巷道为试验研究对象,采用地震技术对软弱岩体围岩结构进行了全断面探测,实现了岩体结构的空间定位和精确探测,进而为支护形式和支护参数的选择提供了直观可靠的工程地质依据。     

Relationships between Interannual and Intraseasonal Variations of the Asian-Western Pacific Summer Monsoon Hindcasted by BCC_CSM1.1（m）

Using hindcasts of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model, the relationships between interannual variability （IAV） and intraseasonal variability （ISV） of the Asian-western Pacific summer monsoon are diagnosed. Predictions show reasonable skill with respect to some basic characteristics of the ISV and IAV of the western North Pacific summer monsoon （WNPSM） and the Indian summer monsoon （ISM）. However, the links between the seasonally averaged ISV （SAISV） and seasonal mean of ISM are overestimated by the model. This deficiency may be partially attributable to the overestimated frequency of long breaks and underestimated frequency of long active spells of ISV in normal ISM years, although the model is capable of capturing the impact of ISV on the seasonal mean by its shift in the probability of phases. Furthermore, the interannual relationships of seasonal mean, SAISV, and seasonally averaged long-wave variability （SALWV; i.e., the part with periods longer than the intraseasonal scale） of the WNPSM and ISM with SST and low-level circulation are examined. The observed seasonal mean, SAISV, and SALWV show similar correlation patterns with SST and atmospheric circulation, but with different details. However, the model presents these correlation distributions with unrealistically small differences among different scales, and it somewhat overestimates the teleconnection between monsoon and tropical central-eastern Pacific SST for the ISM, but underestimates it for the WNPSM, the latter of which is partially related to the too-rapid decrease in the impact of E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation with forecast time in the model.     

Comparison of CloudSat cloud liquid water paths in arctic summer using ground-based microwave radiometer

Arctic clouds strongly influence the regional radiation balance, temperature, melting of sea ice, and freezing of sea water. Despite their importance, there is a lack of systematic and reliable observations of Arctic clouds. The CloudSat satellite launched in 2006 with a 94 GHz Cloud Profiling Radar (CPR) may contribute to close this gap. Here we compare one of the key parameters, the cloud liquid water path (LWP) retrieved from CloudSat observations and from microwave radiometer (MWR) data taken during the ASCOS (Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study) cruise of the research vessel Oden from August to September 2008. Over the 45 days of the ASCOS cruise, collocations closer than 3 h and 100 km were found in only 9 d, and collocations closer than 1 h and 30 km in only 2 d. The poor correlations in the scatter plots of the two LWP retrievals can be explained by the patchiness of the cloud cover in these two days (August 5th and September 7th), as confirmed by coincident MODIS (Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) images. The averages of Oden-observed LWP values are systematically higher (40–70 g m⁻²) than the corresponding CloudSat observations (0–50 g m⁻²). These are cases of generally low LWP with presumably small droplets, and may be explained by the little sensitivity of the CPR to small droplets or by the surface clutter.     

Performance of the seasonal forecasting of the Asian summer monsoon by BCC_CSM1.1(m)

This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of Asian summer monsoon prediction skill as a function of lead time and its relationship to sea surface temperature prediction using the seasonal hindcasts of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model, BCC_CSM1.1(m). For the South and Southeast Asian summer monsoon, reasonable skill is found in the model's forecasting of certain aspects of monsoon climatology and spatiotemporal variability. Nevertheless, deficiencies such as significant forecast errors over the tropical western North Pacific and the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean are also found. In particular, overestimation of the connections of some dynamical monsoon indices with large-scale circulation and precipitation patterns exists in most ensemble mean forecasts, even for short lead-time forecasts. Variations of SST, measured by the first mode over the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans, as well as the spatiotemporal features over the Niño3.4 region, are overall well predicted. However, this does not necessarily translate into successful forecasts of the Asian summer monsoon by the model. Diagnostics of the relationships between monsoon and SST show that difficulties in predicting the South Asian monsoon can be mainly attributed to the limited regional response of monsoon in observations but the extensive and exaggerated response in predictions due partially to the application of ensemble average forecasting methods. In contrast, in spite of a similar deficiency, the Southeast Asian monsoon can still be forecasted reasonably, probably because of its closer relationship with large-scale circulation patterns and El Niño-Southern Oscillation.     

复杂地形区陆面资料对WRF模式模拟性能的影响

本文利用WRF（Weather Research and Forecasting）模式耦合Noah陆面过程模式,对比研究了使用不同精度陆面资料:WRF默认陆面资料、中国1 km分辨率数字高程模型数据集、2006年MODIS（MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer）土地利用和植被覆盖度资料,WRF模式对兰州地区冬季气象场模拟结果的差异。结果表明,近地面气温对陆面资料的精度非常敏感,而风场对陆面资料的精度不敏感,WRF模式对气温的模拟效果好于对风场模拟。采用高精度且时效性好的陆面资料后,WRF模拟的近地面气温准确率提高了15.8%,模拟的夜间气温改进幅度较白天大。陆面资料可影响整个边界层温度场分布,准确的陆面资料对提高WRF模式模拟近地面乃至整个边界层气象场至关重要。尽管风速模拟误差较大,但总体上WRF模式能较准确地模拟出研究区的风场演变特征。使用新的陆面资料后WRF模拟的风速误差略有减小,风向误差略有增加。干旱半干旱区冬季数值模拟需要注意土壤湿度初值和模式初始积分时刻对模拟结果的影响。     

几种海水贝类甲醛浸渍标本DNA的提取及rRNA基因ITS序列的扩增

从中国科学院海洋生物标本馆收藏的8种甲醛浸渍的海水贝类标本中提取DNA并对其rRNA编码基因的ITS序列进行特异性扩增,在牡蛎Crassostrea sp．、长肋日月贝Amussium pleurondectes (Linnaeus)、扇贝Volachlamys ringaporinug(Sowerby)与华贵栉孔扇贝Chlamys nobilis(Reeve)等4个物种的标本中成功获得扩增产物。利用图片分析软什得出牡蛎标本的ITS-1和ITS-2扩增片段分别为408bp和524bp,长肋日月贝标本分别521bp和537bp,而扇贝Volachlamys ringaporinug(Sowerby)与华贵栉孔扇贝标本只获得ITS-1扩增片段,长度均为545bp。     

A new species of Nassarius (Gastropoda: Nassariidae) from the western Pacific Ocean

This paper describes a new species of Nassarius from the South China Sea,which was recognized when re-sorting the collection of Nassariidae in the Marine Biological Museum,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Qingdao,China.The shells were collected during several investigations,including the National Comprehensive Oceanic Survey in 1958-1959,and the China-Vietnam Co-Investigation on Marine Resource of the Beibu Gulf during 1959-1962.The morphology of the shell and the radula places the new species of Nassarius within the subgenus Zeuxis.It is named Nassarius(Zeuxis) nanhaiensis sp.nov.