Flood susceptibility mapping using frequency ratio and weights-of-evidence models in the Golastan Province,Iran

Flood is one of the most devastating natural disasters with socio-economic and environmental consequences. Thus, comprehensive flood management is essential to reduce the flood effects on human lives and livelihoods. The main goal of this study was to investigate the application of the frequency ratio (FR) and weights-of-evidence (WofE) models for flood susceptibility mapping in the Golestan Province, Iran. At first, a flood inventory map was prepared using Iranian Water Resources Department and extensive field surveys. In total, 144 flood locations were identified in the study area. Of these, 101 (70%) floods were randomly selected as training data and the remaining 43 (30%) cases were used for the validation purposes. In the next step, flood conditioning factors such as lithology, land-use, distance from rivers, soil texture, slope angle, slope aspect, plan curvature, topographic wetness index (TWI) and altitude were prepared from the spatial database. Subsequently, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were drawn for produced flood susceptibility maps and the area under the curves (AUCs) was computed. The final results indicated that the FR (AUC = 76.47%) and WofE (AUC = 74.74%) models have almost similar and reasonable results. Therefore, these flood susceptibility maps can be useful for researchers and planner in flood mitigation strategies.     

The effects of variable speeds of a submarine block slide on near-field tsunami amplitudes

In this study, the motion of a submarine block slide, with variable velocities, and its effects on the near-field tsunami amplitudes are investigated. The numerical results show that the amplitudes generated by the slide are almost the same as those created by its average velocity when , where is average velocity of the slide and is the long period tsunami velocity in ocean of constant depth h. In contrast, the kinematic model of the slide must take into account time variations in the moving velocity, if , especially when .     

A late Precambrian (∼ 710 Ma) high volcanicity rift in the southern Eastern Desert of Egypt

The late Precambrian Shadli Metavolcanics of SE Egypt constitute a slightly metamorphosed bimodal sequence that has been previously interpreted as manifesting volcanic activity at an island arc. We report the first Rb-Sr geochronologic, trace element (including REE), and Nd isotopic data for these rocks. Two types of basalt are recognized, the stratigraphically lower suite having compositions like N-MORB ferrobasalt while the overlying basalt is similar to slightly fractionated E-MORB. The two basalt types were derived from melting of a strongly depleted source, most likely within the upper 60–75 km of the upper mantle. The origin of the felsic melts is problematic, and these could either have fractionated from a mafic melt or resulted from melting of juvenile crust. The mafic and felsic lavas yield a Rb-Sr isochron age of 712±24 Ma that probably represents the time of volcanic eruption. The trace element characteristics of both mafic and felsic members of the Shadli Metavolcanics show few of the hallmarks of subduction-related melts, and we reject the hypothesis that these formed at an island arc. Instead, the field and geochemical data are most consistent with the hypothesis that these rocks originated in a magmatic rift, where the eruption of large volumes of lava accompanied large-scale lithospheric extension. This inference suggests that the tectonic setting of the important 700–715 Ma crust-forming event in NE Africa and Arabia needs to be critically reexamined.

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Zusammenfassung Die spätpräkambrischen Shadli-Metavulkanite in der südöstlichen Eastern Desert von Ägypten sind eine schwach metamorphe bimodale Basalt-Rhyodazit-Abfolge, die bisher als Ausdruck eines Inselbogen-Vulkanismus gedeutet wurde. Zwei Basalt-Typen können aufgrund ihrer unterschiedlichen chemischen Zusammensetzung unterschieden werden: der stratigraphisch untere Typ ist ein N-MORB ähnlicher Ferrobasalt, während der überlagernde Typ Charakteristika eines leicht fraktionierten E-MORB aufweist. Die beiden Basaltvarietäten werden von stark an inkompatiblen Elementen verarmten Schmelzen aus den oberen 60–75 km des Mantels abgeleitet. Die Entstehung der sauren Metavulkanite ist nicht eindeutig geklärt; sowohl Fraktionierung aus einer mafischen Schmelze als auch Aufschmelzung juveniler Kruste vom Inselbogen-Typ sind denkbar. Die mafischen und felsischen Gesteine definieren zusammen ein Rb-Sr-Isochronenalter von 712 ± 24 Ma, das wir als den Zeitraum der Eruption deuten. Die Spurenelement-Verteilung der Shadli-Metavulkanite weist keine der charakteristischen Merkmale von Subduktionsmagmatismus auf, und wir sehen daher keinen direkten Zusammenhang mit einer Inselbogen-Entwicklung. Wir interpretieren den Shadli-Vulkanismus als Resultat eines Riftprozesses in junger kontinentaler Kruste, ähnlich dem Rio Grande-Rift oder dem Afar-Dreieck, wo starke Lithosphärendehnung die Förderung großer Lavamengen ermöglichte. Diese Interpretation stellt das einfache Schema einer panafrikanischen Krustenbildung durch Inselbogen-Addition im arabisch-nubischen Schild in Frage und erfordert eine Neubewertung bisheriger Modellvorstellungen.

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Résumé Les roches volcaniques faiblement métamorphisées du Précambrien tardif de Shadli dans le Sud-Est de l'Egypte se caractérisent par une séquence bimodale qui était jusqu'ici interprétée comme résultant d'un volcanisme d'arc insulaire. Nous présentons ici les premières données isotopiques (Rb-Sr, Nd) obtenues pour ces roches ainsi que des données d'éléments en trace (y compris les Terres Rares). Deux types principaux de basaltes peuvent être distingués: les basaltes qui se trouvent dans la partie inférieure de la colonne stratigraphique, ont une composition comparable aux ferrobasaltes de type N-MORB, tandis que les roches se trouvant dans la partie supérieure de la séquence s'apparentent plutôt aux E-MORB légèrement fractionnés. Les deux types de basalte proviennent de la fusion partielle d'un manteau fortement appauvri, et ce à une profondeur probable de 60 à 75 km dans le manteau supérieur. L'origine des laves acides pose, quant à elle, quelques problèmes: elles peuvent s'être formées par cristallisation fractionnée à partir d'un liquide basique, ou alors elles sont le produit de la fusion partielle d'une croûte juvénile. La combinaison des données Rb-Sr obtenues pour les roches acides et basiques permet l'obtention d'une isochrone définissant un âge de 712 ± 24 Ma. Cet âge est interprété comme datant les éruptions volcaniques. Les données d'éléments en traces obtenues pour les laves basiques et acides ne présentent aucune des caractéristiques associées au volcanisme d'arc insulaire. Par conséquent, nous rejetons l'hypothèse selon laquelle les roches volcaniques de Shadli se seraient formées dans un contexte d'arc insulaire. Les données géochimiques et de terrain seraient plutôt en accord avec une hypothèse selon laquelle les roches volcaniques métamorphiques de Shadli se seraient formées dans une zone de rift où de très volumineux épanchements de laves auraient succédé à une extension à grande échelle de la lithosphère. Cette interprétation des données nous conduit à suggérer un réexamen critique du contexte tectonique entourant la période de formation crustale se situant entre 700 a 715 Ma, dans le nord-est de l'Afrique ainsi qu'en Arabie.

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Shadli, - , — , . : , N — MORB MORB, . , , 60–75 . ; , . , Rb/Sr, 712 ± 24 . , . Shadli ; , Shadli, , , , . - ; .

     

Probabilistic analyses of soil consolidation by prefabricated vertical drains for single‐drain and multi‐drain systems

Natural soils are one of the most inherently variables in the ground. Although the significance of inherent soil variability in relation to reliable predictions of consolidation rates of soil deposits has long been realized, there have been few studies that addressed the issue of soil variability for the problem of ground improvement by prefabricated vertical drains. Despite showing valuable insights into the impact of soil spatial variability on soil consolidation by prefabricated vertical drains, available stochastic works on this subject are based on a single‐drain (or unit cell) analyses. However, how the idealized unit cell solution can be a supplement to the complex multi‐drain systems for spatially variable soils has never been addressed in the literature. In this study, a rigorous stochastic finite elements modeling approach that allows the true nature of soil spatial variability to be considered in a reliable and quantifiable manner, both for the single‐drain and multi‐drain systems, is presented. The feasibility of performing an analysis based on the unit cell concept as compared with the multi‐drain analysis is assessed in a probabilistic context. It is shown that with proper input statistics representative of a particular domain of interest, both the single‐drain and multi‐drain analyses yield almost identical results. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Conceptualization of the hydrogeological system of some sedimentary aquifers in Savelugu–Nanton and surrounding areas,Northern Ghana

Groundwater resources play a pivotal role in the rural water delivery system in Ghana. The hydrogeological system of Middle Voltaian terrain was simulated using available data on hydraulic heads and boundary conditions. The objective was to characterize the general groundwater flow pattern and provide local estimates of the distribution of hydraulic conductivity and recharge fields. The results suggest a predominant NE–SW flow direction, which ties in with the general regional structural trend and indicates that the hydrogeological conditions of the rocks are controlled by structural entities created in the wake of fracturing and/or weathering of the rocks whose primary permeabilities are considerably reduced because of high compaction and low‐grade metamorphism. Calibrated hydraulic conductivities range between 1.90 and 10.81 m/d. The spatial distribution appears to reflect the intensity of fracturing and/or weathering of the rock and the proportion of the clay fraction of the weathered zone. Vertical groundwater recharge has been estimated to range between 0.3% and 4.1% of the annual rainfall. This recharge rate is quite low and reflects the imperviousness of the thick overburden because of high clay content in some places and high compaction in others. Despite this apparently low recharge rate, groundwater resources potential in the area appear to be high, and increased abstraction from existing abstraction wells by up to 50% does not appear to register significant effects on groundwater budgets at the simulated recharge rates. This suggests that the well yields are much lower than the potential of the aquifer system. The apparently low yields might be associated with poor well development and the choice of inappropriate well completion materials. This study recommends a monitoring system to be developed for a much more regional groundwater flow simulation under transient conditions. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Socioeconomic impacts of environmental risks in the western Makran zone (Chabahar,Iran)

Natural Hazards - The western Makran subduction zone is capable of producing considerable tsunami run-up heights that penetrate up to 5 km inland. In this study, we show how climate change...