Short-Range Prediction Experiments with Operational Data Assimilation System for the Kuroshio South of Japan

The short-range (one month) variability of the Kuroshio path was predicted in 84 experiments (90-day predictions) using a model in an operational data assimilation system based on data from 1993 to 1999. The predictions started from an initial condition or members of a set of initial conditions, obtained in a reanalysis experiment. The predictions represent the transition from straight to meander of the Kuroshio path, and the results have been analyzed according to previously proposed mechanisms of the transition with eddy propagation and interaction acting as a trigger of the meander and self-sustained oscillation. The reanalysis shows that the meander evolves due to eddy activity. Simulation (no assimilation) shows no meander state, even with the same atmospheric forcing as the prediction. It is suggested therefore that the initial condition contains information on the meander and the system can represent the evolution. Mean (standard deviation) values of the axis error for all 84 cases are 13, 17, and 20 (10, 10, and 12) km, in 138.5°E, in the 30-, 60-, and 90-day predictions respectively. The observed mean deviation from seasonal variation is 30 km. The predictive limit of the system is thus about 80 days. The time scale of the limit depends on which stage in the transition is adopted as the initial condition. The gradual decrease of the amplitude in a stage from meander to straight paths is also predicted. The predictive limit is about 20 days, which is shorter than the prediction of the opposite transition. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Occurrence characteristics of chaetognath species along the PM transect in the Japan sea during 1972–2002

A long-term variation in dominant species of chaetognaths in the Tsushima Warm Current was analyzed using samples collected four times a year from 1972 to 2002 by the Maizuru Marine Observatory along the PM transect in the Japan Sea. Of 19 occurring species, 13 subtropical species formed a major portion of the standing stock. Species richness in the study area was similar to that in the East China Sea and the South China Sea. Four species, Sagitta minima, S. nagae, S. enflata, S. elegans dominated in the upper 150 m water column. The most dominant species per season were S. minima in both winter and autumn, S. elegans in spring and S. nagae in summer. Water temperature and salinity ranges of the most frequent occurrence for three dominant species revealed a common tendency in the order of S. nagae > S. minima > S. enflata towards colder temperature and higher salinity. Inter-annual abundance of chaetognath species fluctuated proportionally in response to the warm or cool phases in water temperature. Water temperature was a fundamental factor in regulating distributional occurrence, being more decisive than salinity. Changes of both dominant species and species numbers in relation to the reduced abundance during winter to spring and the subsequent increase during summer to autumn might be caused by specific differences in optimum temperature. Chaetognath species are important as an indicator of water masses and significant for our understanding of changes and evaluations of the Japan Sea ecosystem.     

Estimation of field irrigation water demand based on lumped kinematic wave model considering soil moisture balance

An estimation model of farm field irrigation water demand is developed. The model is based on the lumped kinematic wave model considering soil water balance. The lumped model approach reduces the computational load in rainfall-runoff analysis and allows application to large river basins. Evapotranspiration is estimated on hourly basis by the improvement of FAO’s method. Not only water volume necessary for farm field irrigation but also the number of the water charge and its interval can be estimated by the combined use of the lumped runoff model and the hourly evapotranspiration model.     

Study of crop coefficient and the ratio of soil evaporation to evapotranspiration in an irrigated maize field in an arid area of Yellow River Basin in China

A field experiment was conducted in a maize field in 2006 in an arid area of the Yellow River Basin in China. The daytime evapotranspiration (ET_c) and soil evaporation beneath the maize canopy (E _g) were measured by Bowen ratio energy balance method and micro-lysimeters, respectively. The results showed that the total ET_c during maize growth season was 696 mm, and the maximum values occurred at about 90–140 days after sowing. The crop coefficient (K _c), which was calculated from the ratio of ET_c to reference evapotranspiration (ET₀), was quite different from the values reported by other researchers in similar climate areas, with average values of 0.34, 0.47, 1.0 and 0.9 for initial, development, mid-season and late-season stages, respectively. High correlations between leaf area index (LAI) and average K _c for every 4 days were obtained. The total E _g was 201.4 mm with average values ranged from 0.92 to 2.05 for four growth stages of maize; and accounted for around 28.9 % of ET_c. The ratio E _g/ET_c showed high negative relationship with LAI. These results were very important in precise management of irrigation for maize in Yellow River Basin areas.     

Spectroscopic properties of Cr-doped and Cr,Li-doped synthetic forsterite crystals

Cr-droped and Cr,Li-doped forsterite crystals were grown and their optical properties were investigated. It was shown that when only Cr is doped, Cr³⁺ is substituted at the site of low crystal field, and the energy level ²E lie above the ⁴T₂ level, while ⁴T₂ is just above ²E when Cr and Li are codoped. The difference was rationalized by a deformation of the Cr substituted site with the introduction of Li.     

Comparison of different methods for estimating soil surface evaporation in a bare field

In this paper, three methods for estimating soil evaporation in a bare field were evaluated: evaporation ratio method (k ratio), complementary relationship and bulk equation. Micro-lysimeters were used to measure the actual evaporation for validation of the three methods. For the k ratio method, pan evaporation was used as the reference evaporation instead of the value obtained from the Penman–Monteith equation. This result is important for areas where meteorological data are unavailable. The results showed that, for daytime evaporation, the k ratio and bulk equation produced a good fit with the observation data, while the complementary relationship generated a larger deviation from the measured data. We recommend that the k ratio method and bulk equation could be used to calculate daytime soil evaporation with high accuracy when soil water content and pan evaporation data or meteorological data are available, while the complementary relationship could be used for a rough estimation when pan evaporation is available. All the methods could be applied to calculate cumulative evaporation.     

A Human Damage Prediction Method for Tsunami Disasters Incorporating Evacuation Activities

This study presents a tsunami human damage prediction method employing numerical calculation and GIS (Geographical Information System) for Usa town, Tosa City, Shikoku Island, Japan. Sometime near the end of the first half of the twenty-first century, a huge earthquake is predicted to occur along the Nankai trough and costal areas facing the Pacific ocean of Shikoku Island. Much damage due to the resultant tsunamis will be caused, therefore, it is necessary to predict the extent of human damage for every town in high-risk areas.The number of tsunami victims was estimated by population in areas of maximum inundation. The number of deaths as a result of tsunami was estimated by a method which employed accumulated death toll of every area in terms of time and space, taking into account consideration of time necessary to begin to seek refuge after an earthquake, tsunami inundation depth on land, flow velocity and evacuation speed. As a result of this study a rapid decrease in death toll by early evacuation was shown quantitatively for the first time.Thus, with the method presented here, it is possible to estimate the extent of tsunami human damage on coastal regions, and may be useful as a tsunami human damage countermeasure.