Population,urbanization and economic scenarios over the Belt and Road region under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

The countries throughout the Belt and Road region account for more than 60% of the world's population and half of the global economy. Future changes in this area will have significant influences on the global economic growth, industrial structure and resource allocation. In this study, the proportion of the urban population to the total population and the gross domestic product were used to represent the levels of urbanization and economic development, respectively. The population, urbanization and economic levels of the Belt and Road countries for 2020–2050 were projected under the framework of the IPCC's shared socioeconomic pathways(SSPs), and the following conclusions are drawn.(1) The population, urbanization and economic levels in the Belt and Road region will likely increase under all five pathways. The population will increase by 2%–8%/10 a during 2020–2050 and reach 5.0–6.0 billion in 2050. Meanwhile, the urbanization rate will increase by 1.4%–7.5%/10 a and reach 49%–75%. The GDP will increase by 17%–34%/10 a and reach 134–243 trillion USD.(2) Large differences will appear under different scenarios. The SSP1 and SSP5 pathways demonstrate relatively high urbanization and economic levels, but the population size is comparatively smaller; SSP3 shows the opposite trend. Meanwhile, the economy develops slowly under SSP4, but it has a relatively high urbanization level, while SSP2 exhibits an intermediate trend.(3) In 2050, the population will increase relative to 2016 in most countries, and population size in the fastest growing country in Central Asia and the Middle East countries will be more than double. Urbanization will develop rapidly in South Asia, West Asia and Central Asia, and will increase by more than 150% in the fastest growing countries. The economy will grow fastest in South Asia, Southeast Asia and West Asia, and increase by more than 10 times in some counties with rapid economic development.     

资源环境系列制图研究的现实基础与发展

本文侧重于全国性资源环境及有关自然条件等专题制图工作的现实基础和成就,作简要总结和回顾。针对提高和重新认识制图效益和重点进行讨论,提出科学效益是基础,社会效益是目的,经济效益是根本,为资源环境的合理开发利用提供依据,并提出今后发展设想。     

城市投资环境的评价模型及应用

本文在对投资单元的量化,评价指标的选择及量化进行探讨的基础上,提出了专家得分和模糊评价二种投资评价模型,并以宁波市为例进行了应用.     

农谚在河南冬小麦种植及气候适应中的应用

农谚是反映人地关系的地方性知识,研究其在农业生产中的应用及适用性,有助于理解人地关系的变迁及地域特点。收集整理河南冬小麦种植的农谚,归纳总结了冬小麦生育期的农谚时序表。进而利用洛阳、开封、信阳1951—2003年的气象观测数据,分析农谚与气候适应的关系。结果显示,随着气候的变化,农谚中的冬小麦适宜播种期比气象实测的适宜播种期略微早。农谚指出冬小麦越冬期怕冬暖,拔节孕穗期间怕春寒及灌浆需晴暖天气,均与实际观测的气象数据相符合。农谚指出了冬小麦缺水及容易出现旱情的生育阶段,并以此进行旱灾适应。     

广州白云山常绿阔叶林的结构特征

在线路调查和样方调查的基础上分析了广州白云山常绿阔叶林的结构特征.群落主要由亚热带科属组成,优势科为芸香科、五加科、茜草科、山茶科、壳斗科、鼠刺科、樟科等.优势树种也以相应的优势科属树种为主.群落中胸径≥3cm的个体密度较小,只有1964株/hm2;群落较为低矮,平均高度只有6m;乔木垂直分化不明显,树种水平分布不均.白云山的植被是次生植被和人工造林改造的结果,只在山谷少数植被没受人类干扰.其现状植被是天然次生植被和人工植被的混合体.在一些由马尾松发展起来的群落,天然侵入的阔叶树种已在主要层中居优势;群落中可见马尾松衰退的痕迹.     

3-D BAROCLINIC NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA I. UPPER CIRCULATION

A three-dimensional baroclinic shelf sea model was employed to simulate the seasonal characteristics of the South China Sea (SCS) upper circulation. The results showed that: in summer, an anticyclonic eddy, after its formation between the Bashi Channel and Dongsha Islands in the northeastern SCS, moves southwestward until it disperses slowly. There exists a northward western boundary current along the east shore of the Indo-China Peninsula in the western SCS and an anticyclonic gyre in the southern SCS. But at the end of summer and beginning of autumn, a weak local cyclonic eddy forms in the Nansha Trough, then grows slowly and moves westward till it becomes a cyclonic gyre in the southern SCS in autumn. At the beginning of winter, there exists a cyclonic gyre in the northern and southern SCS, and there is a southward western boundary current along the east shore of the Indo-China Peninsula. But at the end of winter, an anticyclonic eddy grows and moves toward the western boundary after forming in the Nansha Trough. The eddy‘s movement induces a new opposite sign eddy on its eastern side, while the strength of the southward western boundary current gets weakened. This phenomenon continues till spring and causes eddies in the southern SCS.     

关于大陆动力学几个问题的思考

本文对大陆动力学研究中密切关注的问题，如大陆裂解和碰撞的经典、非经典、非威尔逊旋回；盆─山转换的多类型多阶段；大陆垂向增生与侧向增生──是拆沉还是抽拉？造山带结构的复杂性和多样性以及大陆岩石圈发展与演化的“力源”等问题进行了归纳分析和讨论，同时提出了笔者对上述问题的看法。     

The effect of biological soil crusts of different successional stages and conditions on the germination of seeds of three desert plants

Biological soil crusts greatly affect soil surface properties, which, in turn, may alter seed germination of vascular plants. We investigated the effects of two types of biological soil crusts (moss crust and algal crust) at different ages on the seed germination of Bassia dasyphylla and Artemisia ordosica. We also investigated the effects of crust conditions (living crust and dead crust) on seed germination of B. dasyphylla, A. ordosica and Eragrostis poaeoides. The presence of both algal and moss crusts significantly enhanced the germination of B. dasyphylla and A. ordosica compared with uncrusted soil. Crust age had no significant effect on the germination of either B. dasyphylla or A. ordosica for both moss and algal crusts. Germination of B. dasyphylla differed significantly between moss and algal crusts, but germination of both A. ordosica and E. poaeoides did not. Germination of A. ordosica, E. poaeoides and B. dasyphylla was significantly higher on living algal crust than on dead crust and uncrusted soil, while living moss crust enhanced the germination of both A. ordosica and B. dasyphylla but had no significant effect on E. poaeoides.     

Statistical Properties of the Highest Pulses in Gamma-Ray Bursts

We study the statistical properties of the highest pulses within individual gamma-ray bursts (GRBs). A wavelet package analysis technique and a developed pulse-finding algorithm have been applied to identify the highest pulses from burst profiles observed by BATSE on board CGRO from 1991 April 21 to 1999 January 26. The statistical light curves of the highest pulses in four energy channels have been derived by an aligning method, which illustrate the temporal evolution of the pulse emission. Our result that narrower pulses go with higher energies is consistent with previous findings. By normalizing both the pulse durations and counts to unity, “characteristic” profiles of the highest pulses in the four channels are also derived. The four characteristic profiles are turned out to be almost the same, thus strongly support the previous conclusion that the temporal profiles in different energy channels are self-similar and the previous conjecture on GRB pulses, implying that the emission process is similar at different energies. The cosmological time dilation effect is examined by investigating the relationship between the pulse flux and pulse duration. An anti-correlation between the two was found, which agrees with the expectation of the cosmological time dilation effect. Also, the evolution of the pulse duration with the observational epoch is studied. The result shows that the pulse duration tends to be shorter in later epochs. This trend cannot be explained by the present theoretical models, and may represent a great challenge to current theories.     

The coupled rotation of the inner core

The rotation of the inner core (IC) is influenced by the rest of the Earth through a number of coupling mechanisms. Among four possible coupling mechanisms, gravitational, pressure, viscous and electromagnetic, the first two torques are dominant. Numerous existing IC gravitational torque estimates have been shown to agree very well with one another Xu & Szeto 1996 ). It is shown in this paper that different estimates of the IC pressure torque are also in good agreement.
The coupled rotation of the IC has been investigated in the frequency domain by several research groups (Mathews et al. 1991a,b; De Vries & Wahr 1991 ; Dehant et al. 1993; Jiang 1993 ). Not all of these efforts obtained two IC-related rotational modes, the inner-core wobble (ICW) and the free-inner-core nutation (FICN). We investigate this problem in the time domain and confirm the existence of the two modes. The periods of ICW and FICN are in good agreement with those obtained by other researchers. In studying the effects of coupling torques on the IC rotational modes we have found that depending on whether the IC net torque is 'restoring' or otherwise, an increased torque magnitude will respectively shorten or lengthen the ICW period. We have also found that the sense of FICN is determined by the orientation of the net coupling torque on the IC.