Modelling tropical cyclone risks for present and future climate change scenarios using geospatial techniques

Tropical cyclones and their devastating impacts are of great concern to coastal communities globally. An appropriate approach integrating climate change scenarios at local scales is essential for producing detailed risk models to support cyclone mitigation measures. This study developed a simple cyclone risk-modelling approach under present and future climate change scenarios using geospatial techniques at local scales, and tested using a case study in Sarankhola Upazila from coastal Bangladesh. Linear storm-surge models were developed up to 100-year return periods. A local sea level rise scenario of 0.34?m for the year 2050 was integrated with surge models to assess the climate change impact. The resultant storm-surge models were used in the risk-modelling procedures. The developed risk models successfully identified the spatial extent and levels of risk that match with actual extent and levels within an acceptable limit of deviation. The result showed that cyclone risk areas increased with the increase of return period. The study also revealed that climate change scenario intensified the cyclone risk area by 5–10% in every return period. The findings indicate this approach has the potential to model cyclone risk in other similar coastal environments for developing mitigation plans and strategies.     

Introduction: Interaction between environment and fisheries—The role of stakeholder participation

This paper is an introduction to the special issue on a role of participation in dealing with the interactions between environment and fisheries. In this introduction, we explore the recent discussion on the ecosystem-based approach to fisheries management (EBAFM) and extract important points for implementation of EBAFM from the social science literature on participation and participatory processes in environmental management. The introduction finishes by describing the analytical framework for studying participatory processes.     

A complicated relationship: Stakeholder participation and the ecosystem-based approach to fisheries management

The relationship between stakeholder participation (SP) and the ecosystem-based approach to fisheries management (EBAFM) is often taken for granted, but is actually very complicated. The literature reveals five possible interpretations of this relationship: that they are (1) logically linked; (2) ethically linked; (3) instrumentally linked; (4) complementarily linked and (5) antagonistically linked. We examine these five formulations in the light of recent research on interactions between fisheries and their environment and conclude that the SP/EBAFM relationship manifests itself as predominantly instrumental in character.     

Discrete element modelling of extensional,growth, fault‐propagation folds

Extensional fault‐propagation folds are now recognised as being an important part of basin structure and development. They have a very distinctive expression, often presenting an upward‐widening monocline, which is subsequently breached by an underlying, propagating fault. Growth strata, if present, are thought to provide a crucial insight into the manner in which such structures grow in space and time. However, interpreting their stratigraphic signal is neither straightforward nor unique. Both analogue and numerical models can provide some insight into fold growth. In particular, the trishear kinematic model has been widely adopted to explain many aspects of the evolution and geometry of such fault‐propagation folds. However, in some cases the materials/rheologies used to represent the cover do not reproduce the key geometric/stratigraphic features of such folds seen in nature. This appears to arise from such studies not addressing adequately the very heterogenous mechanical stratigraphy seen in many sedimentary covers. In particular, flexural slip between beds/layers is often not explicitly modelled but, paradoxically, it appears to be an important deformation mechanism operative in such settings. Here, I present a 2D discrete element model of extensional fault‐propagation folding which explicitly includes flexural slip between predefined sedimentary units or layers in the cover. The model also includes growth strata and shows how they may reflect the various evolutionary stages of fold and fault growth. When flexural slip is included in the modelling scheme, the resultant breached monoclines and their growth strata are strikingly similar to some of those seen in nature. Results are also compared with those obtained using simple, homogeneous, frictional‐cohesive and elastic cover materials. Both un‐lithified and lithified growth strata are considered and clearly show that, rather than just being passive recorders of structural evolution, growth strata can themselves have an important effect on fault‐related fold growth. Implications for the evolution of and strain within, the resultant growth structures are discussed. A final focus of this study is the relationship that trishear might have with the upward‐widening zone of flexural slip activation away from a fault tip singularity.     

Measuring impact crater depth throughout the solar system

One important, almost ubiquitous, tool for understanding the surfaces of solid bodies throughout the solar system is the study of impact craters. While measuring a distribution of crater diameters and locations is an important tool for a wide variety of studies, so too is measuring a crater's “depth.” Depth can inform numerous studies including the strength of a surface and modification rates in the local environment. There is, however, no standard data set, definition, or technique to perform this data-gathering task, and the abundance of different definitions of “depth” and methods for estimating that quantity can lead to misunderstandings in and of the literature. In this review, we describe a wide variety of data sets and methods to analyze those data sets that have been, are currently, or could be used to derive different types of crater depth measurements. We also recommend certain nomenclature in doing so to help standardize practice in the field. We present a review section of all crater depths that have been published on different solar system bodies which shows how the field has evolved through time and how some common assumptions might not be wholly accurate. We conclude with several recommendations for researchers which could help different data sets to be more easily understood and compared.     

Revised recommended methods for analyzing crater size-frequency distributions

Impact crater populations help us to understand solar system dynamics, planetary surface histories, and surface modification processes. A single previous effort to standardize how crater data are displayed in graphs, tables, and archives was in a 1978 NASA report by the Crater Analysis Techniques Working Group, published in 1979 in Icarus. The report had a significant lasting effect, but later decades brought major advances in statistical and computer sciences while the crater field has remained fairly stagnant. In this new work, we revisit the fundamental techniques for displaying and analyzing crater population data and demonstrate better statistical methods that can be used. Specifically, we address (1) how crater size-frequency distributions (SFDs) are constructed, (2) how error bars are assigned to SFDs, and (3) how SFDs are fit to power-laws and other models. We show how the new methods yield results similar to those of previous techniques in that the SFDs have familiar shapes but better account for multiple sources of uncertainty. We also recommend graphic, display, and archiving methods that reflect computers’ capabilities and fulfill NASA's current requirements for Data Management Plans.     

Pockmarks in the inner Oslofjord,Norway

Multibeam bathymetric surveys of the Inner Oslofjord, Norway have revealed a high density of pockmarks in the 179-km² inner fjord area, which contains over 500 pockmarks of varying size, typically 20–50 m in diameter and 2–10 m deep. These pockmarks have been investigated with a variety of techniques, including acoustic subbottom profiling, sedimentological and geochemical analyses of cores, remotely operated vehicle observation, and morphometry. Both the distribution and shapes of the pockmarks suggest that they are related to structures in the bedrock underlying relatively thin (<50 m) unconsolidated glacial and postglacial sediments. The data provide no direct indication of a particular mode of pockmark formation, but release of large amounts of biogenic, shallow methane seems unlikely. Several lines of evidence point to a continuous process of pockmark formation followed by inactivity, with some pockmarks recently active whereas others have been inactive for a considerable time. Some pockmarks are characterised by coarse sediment in their centres. The density, variety and easy access make this pockmark field an ideal model area for pockmark research. John S. Gray is deceased.     

The impact of artisanal fishing on coral reef fish health in Hat Thai Mueang,Phang-nga Province,Southern Thailand

This study investigates whether there has been a decline in fish stocks of a coral reef in Thailand, and if so, whether that decline is due to small-scale fishing. The research methods used included fish sampling by UVC, interviews and questionnaires with key informants and artisanal fishers. The results confirmed that there has been a decline in piscivores and carnivores (though not herbivores), and the main perceived threat came not from artisanal but from commercial fishing. Recommendations are to replace the largely unrestricted fishery with a more regulated regime backed by effective enforcement.     

Sampling the vertical particle flux in the upper water column using a large diameter free-drifting NetTrap adapted to an Indented Rotating Sphere sediment trap

Further development of the large, surface-tethered sediment trap (NetTrap) employed as part of the MedFlux program is described whereby the large collection capacity of the NetTrap is combined with an Indented Rotating Sphere/Sample Carousel (IRSC) sediment trap (IRSC–NT). This trap is capable of collecting particle flux either in a time series or settling velocity mode; settling velocity mode allows the collection of particles that fall within discrete settling velocity intervals. During short field deployments in the Mediterranean Sea the IRSC–NT configured in the settling velocity mode successfully collected unpoisoned samples for chemical and microbiological experiments. In addition to the development of the IRSC–NT, particle-settling behavior above and below the swimmer-excluding IRS valve was tested during on-deck experiments using a specially constructed water-tight trap. Chemical analyses of settling materials (published elsewhere) suggested that separation of particles by settling velocity was achieved. However, due to the motion of the ship, it was not possible to directly measure particle-settling velocities within the trap. Particle release from the IRS did not bias the apparent settling velocity spectrum. Rotation of the IRS did not engender turbulence at the surface of the sphere or within the skewed funnel below. Tests of different ball designs over the course of the MedFlux program showed that a “ridge and saddle” pattern was optimal for efficiently transferring particles under the IRS seal while still reducing swimmer entrance to the collection funnel. The large size of the IRSC–NT did not prevent it from drifting effectively with the current. Several modifications of the present design are proposed that should improve the accuracy of the settling velocity measurements.     

MedFlux: Investigations of particle flux in the Twilight Zone

The MedFlux project was devised to determine and model relationships between organic matter and mineral ballasts of sinking particulate matter in the ocean. Specifically we investigated the ballast ratio hypothesis, tested various commonly used sampling and modeling techniques, and developed new technologies that would allow better characterization of particle biogeochemistry. Here we describe the rationale for the project, the biogeochemical provenance of the DYFAMED site, the international support structure, and highlights from the papers published here. Additional MedFlux papers can be accessed at the MedFlux web site (http://msrc.sunysb.edu/MedFlux/).