The drying up of Britain? A national estimate of changes in seasonal river flows from 11 Regional Climate Model simulations

As climate change may modify the hydrological cycle significantly, understanding the impact on river flow is important because it affects long‐term water resources planning. Here, we describe a high‐resolution British assessment of changes in river flows in the 2050s under 11 different realisations of HadRM3. In winter, river flows may either increase or decrease, with a wide range of possible decreases in summer flow. These results should encourage adaptation that copes with a broad range of future hydrological conditions. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessment of rainfall‐runoff models based upon wavelet analysis

A basic hypothesis is proposed: given that wavelet‐based analysis has been used to interpret runoff time‐series, it may be extended to evaluation of rainfall‐runoff model results. Conventional objective functions make certain assumptions about the data series to which they are applied (e.g. uncorrelated error, homoscedasticity). The difficulty that objective functions have in distinguishing between different realizations of the same model, or different models of the same system, is that they may have contributed in part to the occurrence of model equifinality. Of particular concern is the fact that the error present in a rainfall‐runoff model may be time dependent, requiring some form of time localization in both identification of error and derivation of global objective functions. We explore the use of a complex Gaussian (order 2) wavelet to describe: (1) a measured hydrograph; (2) the same hydrograph with different simulated errors introduced; and (3) model predictions of the same hydrograph based upon a modified form of TOPMODEL. The analysis of results was based upon: (a) differences in wavelet power (the wavelet power error) between the measured hydrograph and both the simulated error and modelled hydrographs; and (b) the wavelet phase. Power difference and wavelet phase were used to develop two objective functions, RMSE(power) and RMS(phase), which were shown to distinguish between simulated errors and model predictions with similar values of the commonly adopted Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency index. These objective functions suffer because they do not retain time, frequency or time‐frequency localization. Consideration of wavelet power spectra and time‐ and frequency‐integrated power spectra shows that the impacts of different types of simulated error can be seen through retention of some localization, especially in relation to when and the scale over which error was manifest. Theoretical objections to the use of wavelet analysis for this type of application are noted, especially in relation to the dependence of findings upon the wavelet chosen. However, it is argued that the benefits of localization and the qualitatively low sensitivity of wavelet power and phase to wavelet choice are sufficient to warrant further exploration of wavelet‐based approaches to rainfall‐runoff model evaluation. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Development of guidelines for ammonia in estuarine and marine water systems

The water quality guideline trigger value for ammonia in estuarine and marine waters has been revised with the addition of 38 new results to the data set of 21 used in earlier guideline derivations. Using species sensitivity distributions, a new trigger value of 460 μg total NH₃-N/L was derived for slightly to moderately disturbed systems (95% protection concentration, PC95), with a value of 160 μg total NH₃-N/L applying to waters of high conservation value (PC99). For sediment pore waters, a guideline trigger value of 3.9 mg total NH₃-N/L, derived from the 80th percentile of background data from Sydney Harbour, is recommended. This value is likely to be exceeded in degraded sediments subject to dredging; however, ocean disposal of such sediments results in rapid decreases in porewater ammonia and a guideline trigger value for dissolved ammonia during disposal of dredged sediments of 1550 μg total NH₃-N/L is proposed.     

Suspended sediment transport and deposition over a dune: Río Paraná, Argentina

Field data from the Rio Paraná, Argentina, are used to examine patterns of suspended sediment transport over a sand dune. Measurements of three‐dimensional velocity are made with an acoustic Doppler current profiler whilst suspended sediment concentration and particle size have been quantified using a laser in situ sediment scattering transmissometer. Suspended sediment concentration and streamwise and vertical sediment flux are highest close to the bed, with an upward vertical flux over the stoss side of the dune and downward flux over the lee side. Suspended sediment concentrations are higher over the crest compared with the trough and suspended sediment is coarsest near the bed. About 17% of the suspended‐load transported over the crest is deposited in the lee side before it reaches the trough. Most of this deposited sand is coarser sediment that originates close to the bed over the crest, a result consistent with simulations based on the model of Mohrig and Smith (Water Resources Research 1996; 32: 3207–3217) for the excursion lengths of sediment dispersed in the lee side of a dune. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Helium isotopes in early Iceland plume picrites: Constraints on the composition of high 3He/4He mantle

A detailed study of the geochemistry of a new suite of early Iceland plume picrites shows that extremely high ³He/⁴He ratios (up to 50 R_a) are found in picrites from Baffin Island and West Greenland. High ³He/⁴He picrites display a wide range in ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr (0.70288–0.70403), ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd (0.51288–0.51308) and incompatible trace element ratios (e.g. La/Sm_n = 0.5–1.6). These overlap the complete range of compositions of mid-ocean ridge basalts and most northern hemisphere ocean island basalts, including Iceland. Crustal contamination modelling in which high-grade Proterozoic crustal basement rocks for the region are mixed with a depleted parent cannot account for the trend displayed by the Baffin Island and West Greenland picrites. This rules out the possibility that the incompatible trace element, Sr and Nd isotope range of the high ³He/⁴He picrites is due to crustal contamination. The compositional range at high ³He/⁴He is also inconsistent with derivation from a primordial-He-rich reservoir that is a residue of ancient mantle depletion. This implies that the composition of the high ³He/⁴He mantle cannot be determined simply by extrapolating ocean island basalt He–Sr–Nd–Pb–Os isotope data.The apparent decoupling of He from trace element and lithophile radiogenic isotope tracers is difficult to attain by simple mixing of a high-[He], high ³He/⁴He reservoir with various depleted and enriched He-poor mantle reservoirs. The possibility that primordial He has diffused into a reservoir with a composition typical of convecting upper mantle cannot be ruled out. If so, the process must have occurred after the development of existing mantle heterogeneity, and requires the existence of a deep, primordial He-rich reservoir.     

Does quantifying antecedent flow conditions improve stream phosphorus export estimation?

A reliable and economical method for the estimation of nutrient export (e.g. phosphorus) in stream flow from catchments is necessary to quantify the impact of land use or land use change upon aquatic systems. The transport of phosphorus (P) from soil to water is known to impact negatively on water quality. A key observation from studies is that most P export occurs during high stream flow. However, it is not yet clear how flood-antecedent conditions affect the P export during flood events. In this study, the P loss from soil to water as represented by soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) in stream waters from three different catchments, varying in land use, scale and location in Ireland was monitored over 1 year. This study examined the role of antecedent stream flow conditions on SRP export and identifies a catchment-specific relationship between SRP flood event load (EL) and a flow ratio (FR). The FR is defined as the ratio of the flood event volume (EV) to the pre-event volume (PEV). The latter is the cumulative flow volume for a number of days preceding the event. This PEV period was found to be longer (average 81 days) in the grassland catchments which were known to be saturated with soil P than in the forested catchments (average 21 days) with minimal soil P. This FR ratio is a measure of the antecedent hydrological state (wet or dry) of the catchment. For SRP for each catchment, a specific relationship between SRP EL and FR was identified. The annual SRP export was estimated, using this ratio and compared with the concentration/discharge (C/Q) method. The new flow ratio method was used with data from 12 flood events during the year to estimate an annual export of SRP. For the two grassland catchments in the study, using the FR method, we estimated an SRP export of 1.77 and 0.41 kg ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹. Using the C/Q method, for the same sites, our estimate of SRP export was 1.70 and 0.50 kg ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ respectively. The C/Q method used SRP concentrations covering 40% of the year while the FR method used only 12 flood events covering less than 2% of the year. This new method which takes account of the antecedent flow state of the river is an alternative to and may be more promising than the traditional C/Q method, particularly when short duration or flood sampling of water quality is carried out.