A successfully stress-forecast earthquake

A M = 5 earthquake in Iceland has been successfully 'stress forecast' by using variations in time delays of seismic shear wave splitting to assess the time and magnitude at which stress-modified microcracking reaches fracture criticality within the stressed volume where strain is released. Local investigations suggested the approximate location of the forecast earthquake. We report the criteria on which this stress forecast was based.     

Mathematical modelling of groundwater flow at Sellafield, UK

Sellafield in West Cumbria was a potential site for the location of the UK's first underground repository for radioactive, intermediate level waste (ILW). The repository was to lie around 650 m beneath the ground surface within rocks of the Borrowdale volcanic group (BVG), a thick suite of SW dipping, fractured, folded and metamorphosed Ordovician meta-andesites and ignimbrites. These are overlain by an onlapping sequence of Carboniferous and Permo-Triassic sediments. In situ borehole measurements showed that upward trending fluid pressure gradients exist in the area of the potential repository site, and that there are three distinct fluid types in the subsurface; fresh, saline and brine (at depth, to the west of the site). Simulations of fluid flow in the Sellafield region were undertaken with a 2D, steady-state, coupled fluid and heat flow simulation code (OILGEN). In both simplified and geologically complex models, topographically driven flow dominated the regional hydrogeology. Fluids trended persistently upwards through the potential repository site. The dense brine to the west of the site promoted upward deflection of topographically driven groundwaters. The inclusion in hydrogeological models of faults and variably saline sub-surface fluids was essential to the accurate reproduction of regional hydraulic head variations. Sensitivity analyses of geological variables showed that the rate of groundwater flow through the potential repository site was dependent upon the hydraulic conductivity of the BVG, and was unaffected by the hydraulic conductivity of other hydrostratigraphic units. Calibration of the model was achieved by matching simulated subsurface pressures to those measured in situ. Simulations performed with BVG hydraulic conductivity 100 times the base case median value provided the “best-fit” comparison between the calculated equivalent freshwater head and that measured in situ, regardless of the hydraulic conductivity of other hydrostratigraphic units. Transient mass transport simulations utilising the hydraulic conductivities of this “best fit” simulation showed that fluids passing through the potential repository site could reach the surface in 15 000 years. Simple safety case implications drawn from the results of the study showed that the measured BVG hydraulic conductivity must be less than 0.03 m year⁻¹ to be simply declared safe. Recent BVG hydraulic conductivity measurements showed that the maximum BVG hydraulic conductivity is around 1000 times this safety limit.     

Seismic anisotropy in granite at the Underground Research Laboratory, Manitoba

The Shear-Wave Experiment at Atomic Energy of Canada Limited's Underground Research Laboratory was probably the first controlled-source shear-wave survey in a mine environment. Taking place in conjunction with the excavation of the Mine-by test tunnel at 420 m depth, the shear-wave experiment was designed to measure the in situ anisotropy of the rockmass and to use shear waves to observe excavation effects using the greatest variety of raypath directions of any in situ shear-wave survey to date. Inversion of the shear-wave polarizations shows that the anisotropy of the in situ rockmass is consistent with hexagonal symmetry with an approximate fabric orientation of strike 023° and dip 35°. The in situ anisotropy is probably due to microcracks with orientations governed by the in situ stress field and to mineral alignment within the weak gneissic layering. However, there is no unique interpretation as to the cause of the in situ anisotropy as the fabric orientation agrees approximately with both the orientation expected from extensive-dilatancy anisotropy and that of the gneissic layering. Eight raypaths with shear waves propagating wholly or almost wholly through granodiorite, rather than granite, do not show the expected shear-wave splitting and indicate a lower in situ anisotropy, which may be due to the finer grain size and/or the absence of gneissic layering within the granodiorite. These results suggest that shear waves may be used to determine crack and mineral orientations and for remote monitoring of a rockmass. This has potential applications in mining and waste monitoring.     

Cryogenic wedges on the NE Qinghai-Tibet and Ordos Plateaus: Their characteristics,origin and OSL dating

Cryogenic wedges developed due to very cold, rather arid conditions during the maximum of the last cold event when the drying up of the neighboring China Sea resulted in the failure of the East Asian Monsoon. As the climate ameliorated and the Monsoon rains reappeared, ice-wedges developed. Further warming permitted thawing of the ice infillings accompanied by replacement of the ice by sediments partly from the host ground as well as from the surface by wind or sheet wash. In cases of extreme surface water flow on slopes after 10 ka B.P., small baydjarakhs typically c. 50 cm high developed, only to have the resulting hollows infilled by sediments carried by wind and/or sheet wash. These shallow structures form a network on top of many of the cryogenic wedges. This complex history makes dating the ages of the wedges difficult using OSL methodology. Unfortunately, past field work ignored the problem of the angle of the cut face to the direction of the wedge infilling when sampling the contents of the narrow wedges, resulting in potential contamination of the samples with the host sediment. Sampling of the larger deposits should be alright, but the likelihood of contamination makes the interpretation of the resulting OSL dates from the narrow wedges questionable. Primary wedges consisting of primary mineral infillings should still have similar OSL dates with depth for a given wedge, but the distinction between ice-wedge infillings and soil wedges is difficult since both can exhibit older dates of the infillings with depth. The available data suggests that ice-wedges were significantly more common than sediment-filled primary wedges. A protocol to avoid having to obtain large numbers of OSL dates by more careful field sampling and the use of grain size determinations is provided in the Appendix.     

Shear-wave polarizations near the North Anatolian Fault – II. Interpretation in terms of crack-induced anisotropy

Summary. The polarizations of shear waves recorded by networks of digital three-component seismometers immediately above small earthquakes near the North Anatolian Fault in Turkey display shear-wave splitting on almost all shear-wave seismograms recorded within the shear-wave window. This splitting is incompatible with source radiation-patterns propagating through simple isotropic structures but is compatible with effective anisotropy of the internal structure of the rock along the ray paths. This paper interprets the phenomena in terms of widespread crack-induced anisotropy. Distributions of stress-induced cracks model many features of the observations, and synthetic polarization diagrams calculated for propagation through simulated cracked rock are similar to the observed patterns. This evidence for widespread crack-induced anisotropy lends strong support to the hypothesis of extensive-dilatancy anisotropy (EDA) suggested by laboratory experiments in subcritical crack-growth. The crucial evidence confirming some form of EDA would be observations of temporal changes in shear-wave splitting as the stress field alters the crack density and crack geometry. There is some weak evidence for such temporal changes at one site, but further analysis of suitable digital three-component seismometer networks in seismic areas is required to confirm EDA.     

Orbital resonances in the solar nebula: Implications for planetary accretion

The influence of gas drag and gravitational perturbations by a planetary embryo on the orbit of a planetesimal in the solar nebula was examined. Non-Keplerian rotation of the gas causes secular decay of the orbit. If the planetesimal's orbit is exterior to the perturber's, resonant perturbations oppose this drag and can cause it to be trapped in a stable orbit at a commensurability of order j/(j + 1), where j is an integer. Numerical and analytical demonstrations show that resonant trapping occurs for wide ranges of perturbing mass, planetesimal size, and j. Induced eccentricities are large, causing overlap of orbits for bodies in different resonances with j > 2. Collisions between planetesimals in different resonances, or between resonant and nonresonant bodies, result in their disruption. Fragments smaller than a critical size can pass through resonances under the influence of drag and be accreted by the embryo. This effect speeds accretion and tends to prevent dynamical isolation of planetary embryos, making gas-rich scenarios for planetary formation more plausible.     

A field‐based assessment of oxygen supply to incubating Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) embryos

Oxygen fluxes through artificially created salmon redds within four UK rivers were quantified and assessed against survival to hatching of Atlantic salmon embryos. All sites recorded high spatial variability in survival. Minimum survival to hatching was zero at all sites. Maximum survival to hatching ranged from 35% to 91%. Mean survival to hatching ranged from 8·7% to 71%. Intra‐ and inter‐site variations in rates of oxygen supply were observed. Generally, interstitial dissolved oxygen concentrations declined over the incubation period from a maximum recorded directly after redd creation, although localized fluctuations were recorded. Similarly, interstitial flow velocities declined over the incubation period from a maximum directly after redd creation to a minimum at hatching. With respect to the causes of embryo mortalities, oxygen supply was shown to be a stronger determinant of survival than interstitial oxygen concentration or interstitial flow velocity. To improve delineation of potential causes of embryo mortalities in the field, the statistical analysis was integrated within mass transfer theory of the processes controlling respiration to determine the likely mechanisms inhibiting respiration. Based on this analysis, mortalities were assessed to have resulted from periods of lethal oxygen concentrations, from periods of interstitial flow velocities that were insufficient to remove metabolic waste, or from combinations of oxygen concentration and interstitial flow that did not support respiratory requirements. A set of oxygen‐supply‐related thresholds for assessing incubation habitat quality are proposed. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

From icy planetesimals to outer planets and comets

Numerical simulations of planet growth in the outer solar system shows thatgrwoth of Uranus and Neptune occurs in reasonably short time, well below the actual age of the system, without the need for ad hoc assumptions about excess mass or artificially low relative velocities among the icy planetesimals. Low velocities, which speed accretion, are a natural consequence of the non-power-law size distribution of planetesimals, just as in our earlier simulations of terrestial planet growth. Initial planetesimals of size ～ 100 km, predicted by formal expressions for gravitational instability in a thin disk of solid material, failed to produce sufficient debris in the size range 1 to 10 km to account for population of the Oort cloud with comet-sized bodies. However, our model of nonhomologous settling of grains to the midplane of the solar system shows that gravitational clumping did not wait until all solid material had settled to the midplane, as had been assumed in earlier models. Rather, the clumping occurred in successive portions of the material that reached the midplane, producing “initial” planetesimals probably of comet-like sizes. Models of subsequent collisional evolution show that such an initial size distribution, similar to known comets, would have been required in order to have an adequate comet-like size distribution available to feed the Oort cloud as the other planets reach full size. Comets are probably unaltered remnants of the initial population of planetesimals in the outer solar system, not fragments of larger bodies.