On the role of soil moisture in daytime evolution of temperatures

This paper explores the relationship between temperature, evaporation and soil moisture using a planetary boundary layer (PBL) model. It focuses on illustrating and quantifying the effect of soil moisture on the evolution of daytime temperatures. A simple convective PBL model coupled with the Penman–Monteith (PM) equation is used to estimate evapotranspiration. Following calibration and sensitivity analysis, the model was used to simulate the relative impact of dry and wet soil moisture conditions on daytime temperatures by changing the surface resistance parameter in the PM equation. It was found that the maximum temperature that can be reached during a day is constrained by the amount of soil moisture and the available net radiation, confirming previously published results. Higher temperatures can be reached with greater net radiation and dry soil moisture conditions. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sensitivity of crop yields and land resource potential to climatic change in Ontario,Canada

Increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO₂ and other greenhouse gases are expected to contribute to a global warming. This paper examines the potential implications of a climatic change corresponding to a doubling of atmospheric concentrations of CO₂ on crop production opportunities throughout Ontario, a major food producing region in Canada. The climate is projected to become warmer and drier, but the extent of these shifts are expected to vary from region to region within Ontario. The effect of this altered climate on crop yields and the area of land capable of supporting specific crops varies according to region, soil quality and crop type. Most notable are the enhanced opportunities for grains and oilseeds in the northern regions, and the diminished production prospects for most crops in the most southerly parts of Ontario.     

Derivation of gold by oxidative metamorphism of a deep ductile shear zone: Part 1. Conceptual model

Quartz-carbonate gold deposits were emplaced in shear zones at or above the brittle-ductile transition. Some of the largest deposits are known to have formed along major, long-lived, transcurrent shears. Shears of this type widened downwards in the ductile regime, as a result of decreasing rock viscosity with depth; some were as wide as 40 km at depths of granulite facies metamorphism. Ductile shears are permeable and, since the permeability is along microfractures, fluid flow was pervasive, providing the opportunity for extensive chemical reaction. Reaction rates were enhanced by shear heating and by deformation-induced stress gradients in minerals, and reductions in grain size. Fluid flow tended to be upwards, because of pressure drop into the brittle portion of the shear. Given the wedge-shaped profile of ductile shears, fluids that had passed through a large volume of lower crust would have been focused at the brittle-ductile transition. Thus, if processes existed to selectively remove elements during fluid movement through the lower crust, these elements would also have been focused at this transition.One of the most constant features of quartz-carbonate lodes is carbonate alteration, which may extend kilometers out from major deposits. The ¹³C signature of this is consistent with a mantle source for the CO₂. Upward-moving CO₂ vapour of probable mantle origin has been implicated in the dehydration of amphibolite facies rocks to granulites and the concomitant depletion of large ion lithophile elements (LILE). The best documented cases of modification of the lower crust by CO₂ are from major shear zones. CO₂ streaming at depth could only have occurred under conditions more oxidizing than that required for graphite stability. These conditions favour solubility of gold by (a) oxidizing Au⁰ to Au⁺; (b) by dissolving sulphide from the rocks to complex with Au⁺. Recent work has shown that some major Archean gold deposits were derived from relatively oxidized fluids.A conceptual model is outlined for the genesis of at least some quartz-carbonate gold deposits. CO₂ permeating deep ductile shear zones dehydrated amphibolite facies rocks. A relatively oxidized CO₂-H₂O fluid was produced, which dissolved sulphide and gold from large volumes of lower crust. Gold was carried upwards in the narrowing shear, to be focused and precipitated at or above the brittle-ductile transition.     

Possible impacts of climatic warming scenarios on water resources in the Saskatchewan River Sub-basin,Canada

Regional scale studies of the impacts of global warming scenarios provide a useful mechanism for identifying potential regional sensitivities, data gaps and research needs, and for raising awareness of the global warming issue at the regional level. Thus, a pilot study of water resources in the Saskatchewan River Sub-basin was undertaken in order to provide first-cut estimates of impacts in this region, and to identify future research needs. Thirty scenarios were constructed, using two hypothetical growth rates for irrigation, five scenarios based on outputs from General Circulation Models (GCMs), and ten hypothetical warming scenarios. During the course of this study, a number of methodological questions were raised, including the representativeness of data points, interpolation of observed and scenario data, and the quantification of uncertainty.Results indicated decreases in summer soil moisture and increases in irrigation demand, but no consensus on changes in runoff or annual net basin supply, primarily due to differences in the GCM-based scenario output at the Rocky Mountains, the major source region for runoff. There were a number of recommendations for follow-up research and monitoring.     

Rare earth element, 87Sr/86Sr,and 143Nd/144Nd compositions of Cenozoic orogenic dacites from Baja California,northwestern Mexico,and adjacent west Texas: evidence for the predominance of a subcrustal component

Dacitic lavas and ignimbrites were examined from seven localities that span the entire 700 km width of the mid- to late Cenozoic magmatic arc of northwestern Mexico and adjacent west Texas. These rocks have remarkably similar REE patterns that are parallel in the heavy REE and have modest negative Eu anomalies. Samples from three localities including Baja California, the Sierra Madre Occidental, and the Chihuahuan Basin and Range have initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr between 0.7044 and 0.7050 and _Nd near 0.0±1.0. These dacites are isotopically similar to associated basalts, and they show no systematic isotopic variation that is correlated with age or composition of the basement. There is no evidence that magmas parental to these dacites interacted significantly with continental crust. Samples form three other localites in the Basin and Range vary in initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr from 0.7051 to 0.7070 and _Nd from about -1 to –2. The composition of these rocks reflects contamination of the parental magmas by relatively small amounts of Precambrian crust. Collectively, the dacites of this study show much less isotopic variation than do Mesozoic granitoids (Farmer and DePaolo 1983) and late Cenozoic olivine tholeiites (Hart 1985) from similar transects of the western United States. The distinctive source region for the magmas parental to the Mexican dacites was relatively uniform isotopically, but it was enriched in LIL and HFS elements beneath the eastern Basin and Range.     

Expert judgment and climate forecasting: A methodological critique of “climate change to the year 2000”

The National Defense University's study of climate change to the year 2000 was based largely on the judgments of the members of two expert panels. Although the study has been widely distributed and apparently read by policy makers in the U.S. and abroad, the method of eliciting and analyzing expert judgment has not been critically reviewed. This paper uses the literature on judgment and subjective probability to evaluate the expert judgment methods used in the study.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.     

The Hemlo gold deposit,Ontario: A geochemical and isotopic study

The Hemlo deposit, near Marathon, Ontario, is one of the largest gold deposits in North America. It is stratiform within Archean metamorphosed volcano-sedimentary rocks. The main ore zone is composed of pyritic, sericitic schist, and massive barite. This is the first report of stratiform barite in the Archean of North America, but other occurrences have since been found west of Hemlo. The mineralization is substantially enriched in Au, Mo, Sb, Hg, Tl and V and lacks carbonate. Because of metamorphism and deformation of the body its genesis is uncertain.${}^{87}\text{Sr}{}^{86}\text{Sr}$ of .7017 for barite from the deposit is similar to that of the sedimentary barite west of Hemlo and to initial ratios of contemporaneous volcanic rocks. At the base of the main ore zone, barite with δ^34S of +8 to +12%. was deposited with ~0%. pyrite. Upward, both barite and pyrite get isotopically lighter, with minimum values for pyrite, to ?17.5%, in non-baritic schist forming the upper part of the ore zone. In drill section, Au grades correlate with the isotopic composition of pyrite. This, and the association of fractionated sulphide with sulphate, suggests that Au, pyrite and barite were deposited contemporaneously. The linked, asymmetric distributions of S minerals and isotopic distributions, which are continuous from section to section, and the isotopic similarity of the Hemlo and western barites are consistent with a syngenetic depositional model.Two sources for the S minerals are considered. In the first, exogenous sulphate from a restricted basin were partially reduced in a geothermal system to form ³⁴S-depleted sulphide. In the second, the sulphate and sulphide are of magmatic-hydrothermal origin. Sulphate and fractionated sulphide are uncommon in Archean rocks, but one or both occur with unusual frequency in major Archean gold deposits. Hydrothermal fluids of moderately high , containing sulphate and permitting isotopic fractionation between oxidized and reduced S species, may have favoured the dissolution, transport and precipitation of Au.