An analytical approach to ascertain saturation‐excess versus infiltration‐excess overland flow in urban and reference landscapes

Uncontrolled overland flow drives flooding, erosion, and contaminant transport, with the severity of these outcomes often amplified in urban areas. In pervious media such as urban soils, overland flow is initiated via either infiltration‐excess (where precipitation rate exceeds infiltration capacity) or saturation‐excess (when precipitation volume exceeds soil profile storage) mechanisms. These processes call for different management strategies, making it important for municipalities to discern between them. In this study, we derived a generalized one‐dimensional model that distinguishes between infiltration‐excess overland flow (IEOF) and saturation‐excess overland flow (SEOF) using Green–Ampt infiltration concepts. Next, we applied this model to estimate overland flow generation from pervious areas in 11 U.S. cities. We used rainfall forcing that represented low‐ and high‐intensity events and compared responses among measured urban versus predevelopment reference soil hydraulic properties. The derivation showed that the propensity for IEOF versus SEOF is related to the equivalence between two nondimensional ratios: (a) precipitation rate to depth‐weighted hydraulic conductivity and (b) depth of soil profile restrictive layer to soil capillary potential. Across all cities, reference soil profiles were associated with greater IEOF for the high‐intensity set of storms, and urbanized soil profiles tended towards production of SEOF during the lower intensity set of storms. Urban soils produced more cumulative overland flow as a fraction of cumulative precipitation than did reference soils, particularly under conditions associated with SEOF. These results will assist cities in identifying the type and extent of interventions needed to manage storm water produced from pervious areas.     

Climate change and future flows of Rocky Mountain rivers: converging forecasts from empirical trend projection and down‐scaled global circulation modelling

To predict future river flows, empirical trend projection (ETP) analyses and extends historic trends, while hydroclimatic modelling (HCM) incorporates regional downscaling from global circulation model (GCM) outputs. We applied both approaches to the extensively allocated Oldman River Basin that drains the North American Rocky Mountains and provides an international focus for water sharing. For ETP, we analysed monthly discharges from 1912 to 2008 with non‐parametric regression, and extrapolated changes to 2055. For modelling, we refined the physical models MTCLIM and SNOPAC to provide water inputs into RIVRQ (river discharge), a model that assesses the streamflow regime as involving dynamic peaks superimposed on stable baseflow. After parameterization with 1960–1989 data, we assessed climate forecasts from six GCMs: CGCM1‐A, HadCM3, NCAR‐CCM3, ECHAM4 and 5 and GCM2. Modelling reasonably reconstructed monthly hydrographs (R² about 0·7), and averaging over three decades closely reconstructed the monthly pattern (R² = 0·94). When applied to the GCM forecasts, the model predicted that summer flows would decline considerably, while winter and early spring flows would increase, producing a slight decline in the annual discharge (?3%, 2005–2055). The ETP predicted similarly decreased summer flows but slight change in winter flows and greater annual flow reduction (?9%). The partial convergence of the seasonal flow projections increases confidence in a composite analysis and we thus predict further declines in summer (about ? 15%) and annual flows (about ? 5%). This composite projection indicates a more modest change than had been anticipated based on earlier GCM analyses or trend projections that considered only three or four decades. For other river basins, we recommend the utilization of ETP based on the longest available streamflow records, and HCM with multiple GCMs. The degree of correspondence from these two independent approaches would provide a basis for assessing the confidence in projections for future river flows and surface water supplies. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Local Spatiotemporal Modeling of House Prices: A Mixed Model Approach

The real estate market has long provided an active application area for spatial–temporal modeling and analysis and it is well known that house prices tend to be not only spatially but also temporally correlated. In the spatial dimension, nearby properties tend to have similar values because they share similar characteristics, but house prices tend to vary over space due to differences in these characteristics. In the temporal dimension, current house prices tend to be based on property values from previous years and in the spatial–temporal dimension, the properties on which current prices are based tend to be in close spatial proximity. To date, however, most research on house prices has adopted either a spatial perspective or a temporal one; relatively little effort has been devoted to situations where both spatial and temporal effects coexist. Using ten years of house price data in Fife, Scotland (2003–2012), this research applies a mixed model approach, semiparametric geographically weighted regression (GWR), to explore, model, and analyze the spatiotemporal variations in the relationships between house prices and associated determinants. The study demonstrates that the mixed modeling technique provides better results than standard approaches to predicting house prices by accounting for spatiotemporal relationships at both global and local scales.     

Characteristics of drift pumice from New Caledonia beaches

Siliceous drift pumice was collected from a total of 40 beaches around the main island of New Caledonia, Southwest Pacific, in order to determine its provenance. New Caledonia is enclosed by a barrier reef lagoon whose 2008 designation as a UNESCO World Heritage Site brought attention to the environmental degradation caused by a century of open cast nickel mining. The frequent, voluminous pumice eruptions in the Southwest Pacific provide ample source material that is somewhat durable, highly transportable in water, and easy to collect and analyze. Geochemical and mineralogical analyses were used to identify the source of the pumice in order to map the transport vector across the open ocean and into the lagoon. Drift pumice was sampled during 2008 and 2010. The mineral assemblage of the pumice was consistently calcic plagioclase, clinopyroxene, orthopyroxene, and opaque minerals. All of the pumice was of fairly uniform geochemistry: low in mafic elements, low in alkalis, with LILE enriched compared to HFSE, and negative Eu, Ti, and Zr anomalies. The pumice is predominately dacitic and tholeiitic. This geochemical signature was consistent with published data from the Tonga arc, which is further supported by the mineralogy. With the exception of two samples (which probably came from either the Kermadec arc or Vanuatu) all of the pumice comes from the Tonga arc. The samples from 2008 are consistent with pumice erupted from Metis Shoal in 2006, and the majority of 2010 samples are consistent with pumice erupted from an unnamed volcano (0403-091) that erupted in 2001.     

Compliance costs and the small fisher: A study of exiters from the New Zealand fishery

Over 3000 predominantly small-scale fishers have exited the New Zealand's quota management system (QMS) between its inception in 1986 and 2000. This study, based on the Ministry of Fisheries database and a questionnaire sent to the exiters, establishes that compliance costs in general, and those specifically related to the QMS, were one of the most consistent reasons for exit. Uncertainty about future QMS policy and the high cost of quota were also significant factors. It appears that the small fishers’ perception of high compliance cost can be supported by industry data.     

Investigating the effect of ballasting by CaCO3 in Emiliania huxleyi, II: Decomposition of particulate organic matter

The quantitative relationship between organic carbon and mineral contents of particles sinking below 1800 m in the ocean indicates that organisms with mineral shells such as coccolithophores are of special importance for transporting carbon into the deep sea. Several hypotheses about the mechanism behind this relationship between minerals and organic matter have been raised, such as mineral protection of organic matter or enhanced sinking rates through ballast addition. We examined organic matter decomposition of calcifying and non-calcifying Emiliania huxleyi cultures in an experiment that allowed aggregation and settling in rotating tanks. Biogenic components such as particulate carbon, particulate nitrogen, particulate volume, pigments, transparent exopolymer particles (TEP), and particulate amino acids in suspended particles and aggregates were followed over a period of 30 d. The overall pattern of decrease in organic matter, the amount of recalcitrant organic matter left after 30 d, and the compositional changes within particulate organic matter indicated that cells without a shell are more subject to loss than calcified cells. It is suggested that biogenic calcite helps in the preservation of particulate organic matter (POM) by offering structural support for organic molecules. Over the course of the experiment, half the particulate organic carbon in both calcifying and non-calcifying cultures was partitioned into aggregates and remained so until the end of the experiment. The partial protection of particulate organic matter from solubilization by biominerals and by aggregation that was observed in our experiment may help explain the robustness of the relationship between organic and mineral matter fluxes in the deep ocean.     

Warm frontal structure in association with a rapidly deepening extratropical cyclone

Abstract

The detailed characteristics of a CASPII warm frontal passage are presented in this article. This storm, Intensive Operating Period (IOP) 13 (February 26–27, 1992), was observed in detail with an array of diverse instruments. It has the advantage over earlier freezing precipitation studies of having simultaneous, in situ and remote sensing measurements by aircraft and ground‐based Doppler radar.

The associated precipitation was in the form of banded structures parallel to the front. Within these bands were embedded precipitation cores, some parallel to the band, some perpendicular. The warm front itself was characterized by major perturbations in its kinematic and thermodynamic features. The cores oriented parallel to the front were the result of embedded convection generated, at least in part, by the irregularities in the frontal surface.

The cores oriented perpendicular to the front were closely associated with the 0°C isotherm on the underside of the frontal inversion. Precipitation phase changes played a significant role in the occurrence of wide near 0°C regions, both vertically and horizontally. These regions had a profound influence on the observed precipitation types and led to complex precipitation‐thermodynamic‐dynamic interactions. Instabilities produced by these interactions are seen in wave‐like features observed by the Doppler radar in these regions, both parallel and perpendicular to the frontal zone.