The sea as a source of atmospheric phosphorus

The geochemical fractionation of phosphorus on the drop produced by bubbles bursting in seawater has been studied using a field sampling system called the Bubble Interfacial Microlayer Sampler (BIMS). The droplets from bursting bubbles were collected on filter samples in Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island during the summer of 1975. Phosphorus was found to be fractionated by the bubble-bursting process. The enrichment factor ranged from 4 to 170. Enrichment was found to increase with decreasing phosphorus concentration at 20 cm depth while it decreases with increasing wind velocity. Enrichment was independent of bubbling depth. Together these facts suggest that the sea-surface microlayer is the source of the phosphorus on the ejected drops. Organic phosphorus on the filter samples was found to be enriched relative to surface-water phosphorus by factors of 100–200, while reactive phosphorus was enriched by factors of only 6–8. This suggests that surface-active organic phosphorus compounds are the source phosphorus in the microlayer.The organic phosphorus content of samples of atmospheric particulates collected over the phosphate-rich upwelling waters near the Peru coast was found to correlate significantly with sea-salt sodium. Enrichments calculated using the average phosphorus concentration of the surface water in this area agree well with the results of the BIMS study. Thus it appears that phosphorus fractionation does occur in nature and may be important in supplying this nutrient to some coastal regions of the world.     

Investigating potential future changes in surface water flooding hazard and impact

Surface water flooding (SWF) is a recurrent hazard that affects lives and livelihoods. Climate change is projected to change the frequency of extreme rainfall events that can lead to SWF. Increasingly, data from Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are being used to investigate the potential water-related impacts of climate change; such assessments often focus on broad-scale fluvial flooding and the use of coarse resolution (>12 km) RCMs. However, high-resolution (<4 km) convection-permitting RCMs are now becoming available that allow impact assessments of more localised SWF to be made. At the same time, there has been an increasing demand for more robust and timely real-time forecast and alert information on SWF. In the UK, a real-time SWF Hazard Impact Model framework has been developed. The system uses 1-km gridded surface runoff estimates from a hydrological model to simulate the SWF hazard. These are linked to detailed inundation model outputs through an Impact Library to assess impacts on property, people, transport, and infrastructure for four severity levels. Here, a set of high-resolution (1.5 km and 12 km) RCM data has been used as input to a grid-based hydrological model over southern Britain to simulate Current (1996–2009) and Future (~2100s; RCP8.5) surface runoff. Counts of threshold-exceedance for surface runoff and precipitation (at 1-, 3- and 6-hr durations) are analysed. Results show that the percentage increases in surface runoff extremes, are less than those of precipitation extremes. The higher-resolution RCM simulates the largest percentage increases, which occur in winter, and the winter exceedance counts are greater than summer exceedance counts. For property impacts, the largest percentage increases are also in winter; however, it is the 12-km RCM output that leads to the largest percentage increase in impacts. The added-value of high-resolution climate model data for hydrological modelling is from capturing the more intense convective storms in surface runoff estimates.     

The water impacts of climate change mitigation measures

A variety of proposed activities to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions will impact on scarce water resources, which are coming under increasing pressure in many countries due to population growth and shifting weather patterns. However, the integrated analysis of water and carbon impacts has been given limited attention in greenhouse mitigation planning. In this Australian case study, we analyse a suite of 74 mitigation measures ranked as highest priority by one influential analysis, and we find that they have highly variable consequences for water quantity. We find: (1) The largest impacts result from land-based sequestration, which has the potential to intercept large quantities of water and reduce catchment yields, estimated to exceed 100 Mm³/MtCO₂-e of carbon mitigated (100,000 l per tonne CO₂-e). (2) Moderate impacts result from some renewable power options, including solar thermal power with a water cost estimated at nearly 4 Mm³/MtCO₂-e. However, the water impacts of solar thermal power facilities could be reduced by designing them to use existing power-related water supplies or to use air or salt-water cooling. (3) Wind power, biogas, solar photovoltaics, energy efficiency and operational improvements to existing power sources can reduce water demand through offsetting the water used to cool thermal power generation, with minor savings estimated at 2 Mm³/MtCO₂-e and amounting to nearly 100 Mm³ of water saved in Australia per annum in 2020. This integrated analysis significantly changes the attractiveness of some mitigation options, compared to the case where water impacts are not considered.     

The Little Ice Age climate of New Zealand reconstructed from Southern Alps cirque glaciers: a synoptic type approach

Little Ice Age (LIA) austral summer temperature anomalies were derived from palaeoequilibrium line altitudes at 22 cirque glacier sites across the Southern Alps of New Zealand. Modern analog seasons with temperature anomalies akin to the LIA reconstructions were selected, and then applied in a sampling of high-resolution gridded New Zealand climate data and global reanalysis data to generate LIA climate composites at local, regional and hemispheric scales. The composite anomaly patterns assist in improving our understanding of atmospheric circulation contributions to the LIA climate state, allow an interrogation of synoptic type frequency changes for the LIA relative to present, and provide a hemispheric context of the past conditions in New Zealand. An LIA summer temperature anomaly of ?0.56 °C (±0.29 °C) for the Southern Alps based on palaeo-equilibrium lines compares well with local tree-ring reconstructions of austral summer temperature. Reconstructed geopotential height at 1,000 hPa (z1000) suggests enhanced southwesterly flow across New Zealand occurred during the LIA to generate the terrestrial temperature anomalies. The mean atmospheric circulation pattern for summer resulted from a crucial reduction of the ‘HSE’-blocking synoptic type (highs over and to the west of NZ; largely settled conditions) and increases in both the ‘T’- and ‘SW’-trough synoptic types (lows passing over NZ; enhanced southerly and southwesterly flow) relative to normal. Associated land-based temperature and precipitation anomalies suggest both colder- and wetter-than-normal conditions were a pervasive component of the base climate state across New Zealand during the LIA, as were colder-than-normal Tasman Sea surface temperatures. Proxy temperature and circulation evidence were used to corroborate the spatially heterogeneous Southern Hemisphere composite z1000 and sea surface temperature patterns generated in this study. A comparison of the composites to climate mode archetypes suggests LIA summer climate and atmospheric circulation over New Zealand was driven by increased frequency of weak El Niño-Modoki in the tropical Pacific and negative Southern Annular Mode activity.     

Transport of Crustacean Larvae Between a Low-Inflow Estuary and Coastal Waters

The effectiveness of larval behavior in regulating transport between well-mixed, low-inflow estuaries and coastal waters in seasonally arid climates is poorly known. We determined the flux of an assemblage of benthic crustacean larvae relative to physical conditions between a shallow estuary and coastal waters on the upwelling coast of northern California (38°18′N, 123°03′W) from 29 to 31 March 2006. We detected larval behaviors that regulate transport in adjacent coastal waters and other estuaries for only two taxa in the low-inflow estuary, but they were apparent for taxa outside the estuary. Vertical mixing in the shallow estuary may have overwhelmed larvae of some species, or salinity fluctuations may have been too slight to cue tidal vertical migrations. Nevertheless, all larval stages of species that complete development in nearshore coastal waters were present in the estuary, because they remained low in the water column reducing seaward advection or they were readily exchanged between the estuary and open coast by tidal flows. Weak tidal flows and gravitational circulation at the head of the estuary reduced seaward transport during development for species that completed development nearshore, whereas larval release during nocturnal ebb tides enhanced seaward transport for species that develop offshore. Thus, nonselective tidal processes dominated larval transport for most species back and forth between the low-inflow estuary and open coastal waters, whereas in adjacent open coastal waters, larval behavior in the presence of wind-induced shear was more important in regulating migrations between adult and larval habitats along this upwelling coast.     

Measurement of Carbon Dioxide Emissions Plumes from Prudhoe Bay, Alaska Oil Fields

Large carbon dioxide plumes with concentrations up to 45 ppm aboveambient levels were measured about 15 km downwind of the Prudhoe Bay, Alaskamajor oil production facilities, located at 70° N Lat. above the ArcticCircle. The measured emissions were 1.3 × 10³ metrictons (C) hour^-1 (11.4× 10⁶ metric tons(C) year^-1), six times greater than the combustion emissionsassumed by Jaffe and coworkers in J. Atmos. Chem. 20 (1995), 213–227,based on 1989 reported Prudhoe Bay oil facility fuel consumption data, andfour times greater than the total C emissions reported by the oil facilitiesfor the same months as the measurement time periods. Variations in theemissions were estimated by extrapolating the observed emissions at a singlealtitude for all tundra research transect flights conducted downwind of theoil fields. These 30 flights yielded an average emission rate of1.02 × 10³ metric tons (C) hour^-1 with astandard deviation of 0.33 × 10³. These quantity ofemissions are roughly equivalent to the carbon dioxide emissions of7–10 million hectares of arctic tussock tundra (Oechel and Vourlitis,Trends in Ecol. Evolution 9 (1994), 324–329).     

Present-day oxidative subsidence of organic soils and mitigation in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta,California, USA

Subsidence of organic soils in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta threatens sustainability of the California (USA) water supply system and agriculture. Land-surface elevation data were collected to assess present-day subsidence rates and evaluate rice as a land use for subsidence mitigation. To depict Delta-wide present-day rates of subsidence, the previously developed SUBCALC model was refined and calibrated using recent data for CO₂ emissions and land-surface elevation changes measured at extensometers. Land-surface elevation change data were evaluated relative to indirect estimates of subsidence and accretion using carbon and nitrogen flux data for rice cultivation. Extensometer and leveling data demonstrate seasonal variations in land-surface elevations associated with groundwater-level fluctuations and inelastic subsidence rates of 0.5–0.8 cm yr^–1. Calibration of the SUBCALC model indicated accuracy of ±0.10 cm yr^–1 where depth to groundwater, soil organic matter content and temperature are known. Regional estimates of subsidence range from <0.3 to >1.8 cm yr^–1. The primary uncertainty is the distribution of soil organic matter content which results in spatial averaging in the mapping of subsidence rates. Analysis of leveling and extensometer data in rice fields resulted in an estimated accretion rate of 0.02–0.8 cm yr^–1. These values generally agreed with indirect estimates based on carbon fluxes and nitrogen mineralization, thus preliminarily demonstrating that rice will stop or greatly reduce subsidence. Areas below elevations of –2 m are candidate areas for implementation of mitigation measures such as rice because there is active subsidence occurring at rates greater than 0.4 cm yr^–1.