Testing solar forcing of pervasive Holocene climate cycles

The temporal and spatial extent of Holocene climate change is an area of considerable uncertainty, with solar forcing recently proposed to be the origin of cycles identified in the North Atlantic region. To address these issues we have developed an annually resolved record of changes in Irish bog tree populations over the last 7468 years which, together with radiocarbon‐dated bog and lake‐edge populations, extend the dataset back to ～9000 yr ago. The Irish trees underpin the internationally accepted radiocarbon calibration curve, used to derive a proxy of solar activity, and allow us to test solar forcing of Holocene climate change. Tree populations and age structures provide unambiguous evidence of major shifts in Holocene surface moisture, with a dominant cyclicity of 800 yr, similar to marine cycles in the North Atlantic, indicating significant changes in the latitude and intensity of zonal atmospheric circulation across the region. The cycles, however, are not coherent with changes in solar activity (both being on the same absolute timescale), indicating that Holocene North Atlantic climate variability at the millennial and centennial scale is not driven by a linear response to changes in solar activity. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A lacustrine GDGT-temperature calibration from the Scandinavian Arctic to Antarctic: Renewed potential for the application of GDGT-paleothermometry in lakes

Quantitative climate reconstructions are fundamental to understand long-term trends in natural climate variability and to test climate models used to predict future climate change. Recent advances in molecular geochemistry have led to calibrations using glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs), a group of temperature-sensitive membrane lipids found in Archaea and bacteria. GDGTs have been used to construct temperature indices for oceans (TEX₈₆ index) and soils (MBT/CBT index). The aim of this study is to examine GDGT-temperature relationships and assess the potential of constructing a GDGT-based palaeo-thermometer for lakes. We examine GDGT-temperature relationships using core top sediments from 90 lakes across a north-south transect from the Scandinavian Arctic to Antarctica including sites from Finland, Sweden, Siberia, the UK, Austria, Turkey, Ethiopia, Uganda, Chile, South Georgia and the Antarctic Peninsula. We examine a suite of 15 GDGTs, including compounds used in the TEX₈₆ and MBT/CBT indices and reflecting the broad range of GDGT inputs to small lake systems.GDGTs are present in varying proportions in all lakes examined. The TEX₈₆ index is not applicable to our sites because of the large relative proportions of soil derived and methanogenic components. Similarly, the MBT/CBT index is also not applicable and predicts temperatures considerably lower than those measured. We examine relationships between individual GDGT compounds and temperature, pH, conductivity and water depth. Temperature accounts for a large and statistically independent fraction of variation in branched GDGT composition. We propose a GDGT-temperature regression model with high accuracy and precision (R² = 0.88; RMSE = 2.0 °C; RMSEP = 2.1 °C) for use in lakes based on a subset of branched GDGT compounds and highlight the potential of this new method for reconstructing past temperatures using lake sediments.     

Is there the will to manage fisheries at a local level in the European Union? A case study from Shetland

The failure of the command and control approach to fisheries management has encouraged governments to look for new ways of balancing the requirement to conserve fish stocks and yet maintain a flow of benefits that will meet economic and social targets. In the quest to establish a system for sustaining production in the Common Pond, the European Union (EU) has begun to investigate alternatives to the current management system. This research paper examines the problems associated with the current management regime operating in the EU in the light of alternatives for managing the fisheries. The research seeks to establish whether, given the serious problems confronting the EU's fishing industries, fishermen would be prepared to accept change and offer their ideas and support to develop an alternative management system. The research draws on the opinions of fishermen from Shetland and discusses the findings gained from interviewing key informants in conjunction with the results of an opinion survey of skippers and boat owners.     

Reconstructing epilimnetic total phosphorus using diatoms: statistical and ecological constraints

Diatoms respond rapidly to eutrophication and diatom-based models for inferring total phosphorus (TP) have found wide application in palaeolimnology, especially in tracking trajectories of past and recent nutrient enrichment and in establishing pre-disturbance targets for restoration. Using new analysis of existing training sets and sediment-cores we examine the statistical and ecological constraints of diatom-inferred TP (DI-TP) models. Although the models show an apparently strong relationship between measured and inferred TP in the training sets, even under cross-validation, the models display three fundamental weaknesses, namely (1) the relationship between TP and diatom relative abundance is heavily confounded with secondary variables such as alkalinity and lake depth, (2) the models contain many taxa that are not significantly related to TP, and (3) comparison between different models shows poor or no spatial replicability. At some sites the sediment-core diatom assemblage change tracks the TP gradient in the training sets and DI-TP reconstructions are consistent with monitored TP data and known catchment histories for the recent past. At others diatom species turnover is apparently related to variables other than TP, and DI-TP fails to even reproduce plausible trends. Pre-disturbance DI-TP values are also questionable at most sites. We argue that these problems pervade many DI-TP models, particularly those where violations of the basic assumptions of the transfer function approach are ignored.     

Spatially discontinuous modern sedimentation in Georgian Bay, Huron Basin, Great Lakes

High-resolution seismic reflection profile data show that the modern sediment cover (over the last 150 years) in Georgian Bay is thin and spatially discontinuous. Sediments rich in ragweed pollen, largely derived from siltation linked to land clearing and European settlement, form a thin, discontinuous veneer on the lakebed. Much of the lakebed consists of exposed sediments deposited during the late glacial or early postglacial. Accumulation rates of modern sediments range from < 0 mm/year (net erosion) to ∼3.2 mm/year, often within a few hundred metres spatially. These rates are much lower than those reported for the main basin of Lake Huron and the other Great Lakes, and are attributed to the low sediment supply. Only a few small rivers flow into Georgian Bay, and most of the basin is surrounded by bedrock of Precambrian gneiss and granite to the east, and Silurian dolostone, limestone and shale to the west. Thick deposits of Pleistocene drift, found on the Georgian Bay shoreline only between Meaford and Port Severn, are the main sediment source for the entire basin at present. Holocene to modern sediments are even absent from some deep basins of Georgian Bay. These findings have implications for the ultimate fate of anthropogenic contaminants in Georgian Bay. While microfossil assemblages in the ragweed-rich sediments record increased eutrophication over the last 150 years, most pollutants generated in the Georgian Bay catchment are not accumulating on the lakebed and are probably exported from the Bay.     

Late Holocene lake level dynamics inferred from magnetic susceptibility and stable oxygen isotope data: Lake Elsinore, southern California (USA)

Southern California faces an imminent freshwater shortage. To better assess the future impact of this water crisis, it is essential that we develop continental archives of past hydrological variability. Using four sediment cores from Lake Elsinore in Southern California, we reconstruct late Holocene (3800 calendar years B.P.) hydrological change using a twentieth-century calibrated, proxy methodology. We compared magnetic susceptibility from Lake Elsinore deep basin sediments, lake level from Lake Elsinore, and regional winter precipitation data over the twentieth century to calibrate the late Holocene lake sediment record. The comparison revealed a strong positive, first-order relationship between the three variables. As a working hypothesis, we suggest that periods of greater precipitation produce higher lake levels. Greater precipitation also increases the supply of detritus (i.e., magnetic-rich minerals) from the lake's surrounding drainage basin into the lake environment. As a result, magnetic susceptibility values increase during periods of high lake level. We apply this modern calibration to late Holocene sediments from the lake's littoral zone. As an independent verification of this hypothesis, we analyzed ¹⁸O_(calcite), interpreted as a proxy for variations in the precipitation:evaporation ratio, which reflect first order hydrological variability. The results of this verification support our hypothesis that magnetic susceptibility records regional hydrological change as related to precipitation and lake level. Using both proxy data, we analyzed the past 3800 calendar years of hydrological variability. Our analyses indicate a long period of dry, less variable climate between 3800 and 2000 calendar years B.P. followed by a wet, more variable climate to the present. These results suggest that droughts of greater magnitude and duration than those observed in the modern record have occurred in the recent geological past. This conclusion presents insight to the potential impact of future droughts on the over-populated, water-poor region of Southern California.     

DISCOVERY OF TWO AUSTRALITES IN LITHFIED ROCKS

Australites have been found embedded in ferruginous grit and silcrete in the Eastern Goldfields region of Western Australia.     

Organic carbon isotope ratios of recent sediments from coastal lagoons of the Gulf of Mexico,Mexico

The stable carbon isotope composition sedimentary organic carbon was determined in the sediments of seven coastal lagoons of the Gulf of Mexico, Mexico. For most of the lagoons the δ¹³C values for sediments ranged from ?20.1 to ?23.9%. Anomalously low values, ?26.8 to 29.3%. were determined in sediments of two of the studied lagoons, probably due to the presence of organic carbon from anthropogenic sources, naturally absent in these environments. The δ¹³C values determined in the tissues of oysters collected at the same time in the different lagoons were very similar to those recorded in the sediments.     

A note on climate change adaptation for seaports: a challenge for global ports, a challenge for global society

With 80 % of world trade carried by sea, seaports provide crucial linkages in global supply-chains and are essential for the ability of all countries to access global markets. Seaports are likely to be affected directly and indirectly by climatic changes, with broader implications for international trade and development. Due to their coastal location, seaports are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather events associated with increasing sea levels and tropical storm activity, as illustrated by hurricane “Sandy”. In view of their strategic role as part of the globalized trading system, adapting ports in different parts of the world to the impacts of climate change is of considerable importance. Reflecting the views of a diverse group of stakeholders with expertise in climate science, engineering, economics, policy, and port management, this essay highlights the climate change challenge for ports and suggests a way forward through the adoption of some initial measures. These include both “soft” and “hard” adaptations that may be spearheaded by individual port entities, but will require collaboration and support from a broad range of public and private sector stakeholders and from society at large. In particular, the essay highlights a need to shift to more holistic planning, investment and operation.