Fisheries mismanagement

We analysed the extent to which European politicians have adhered to scientific recommendations on annual total allowable catches (TACs) from 1987 to 2011, covering most of the period of the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP). For the 11 stocks examined, TACs were set higher than scientific recommendations in 68% of decisions. Politically-adjusted TACs averaged 33% above scientifically recommended levels. There was no evidence that the 2002 reform of the CFP improved decision-making, as was claimed at the time. We modelled the effects of such politically-driven decision-making on stock sustainability. Our results suggest that political adjustment of scientific recommendations dramatically increases the probability of a stock collapsing within 40 years.In 2012 European fisheries policy will undergo a once-a-decade reform. Ten years ago radical reforms were promised but the changes failed to improve sustainability. It is likely that the 2012 reform will be similarly ineffective unless decision-making is changed so that catch allocations are based on science rather than politics.     

Surface-structure-controlled sectoral zoning of the rare earth elements in fluorite from Long Lake, New York, and Bingham, New Mexico, USA

The concentration and distribution of rare earth elements (REE) in sectorally zoned fluorite crystals from Long Lake, New York, and the Hansonburg Mining District, Bingham, New Mexico, have been studied using cathodoluminescence and synchrotron X-ray fluorescence microanalysis (SXRFMA). In cubo-octahedral samples from Long Lake, New York, Ce, Nd, Gd, Dy, Ho, Er, and Tm are preferentially partitioned into the |111| sector relative to the |100| sector. Partition coefficients (K_d = concentration in |111| sector/concentration in |100| sector) range between 3.5 for Ce, to 1.4 for Tm, with a general decrease in K_d as elements deviated from the ionic radius of Ca²⁺, for which REE substitute in fluorite. Diffusion of the REE has occurred, as evidenced by gradual changes in composition over distances of 0.2 to 0.3 mm at sector boundaries.In Bingham samples, three different partition coefficients were determined for Dy: K_d|100|/|111| = 2.83, K_{d |100|/|110|} = 1.77, and K_{d |110|/|111|} = 1.60. These are mean K_d values for a 95% confidence interval. In another sample from the same deposit, Dy, Er, and Gd were found to be preferentially incorporated into the |100| sector relative to the |210| sector with average K_{d |100|/|210|} of 3.1, 2.4, and 2.9, respectively. In a third sample, Nd was found to be preferentially incorporated into the |110| sector relative to the |321| sector with an average K_{d |110|/|321|} value of 2.3.Compositional heterogeneities in a given sector (concentric zoning) have been resolved using SXRFMA but are significantly less than the concentration difference across sector boundaries. Often fluorite exists in a wide variety of morphologies, as is the case in the Hansonburg Mining District of Bingham. We suggest caution when using the REE as petrogenetic indicators because fluorite trace element chemistry can vary greatly among crystals within a deposit depending on the internal morphology of a particular crystal.     

The effect of lithology on valley width,terrace distribution,and bedload provenance in a tectonically stable catchment with flat‐lying stratigraphy

How rock resistance or erodibility affects fluvial landforms and processes is an outstanding question in geomorphology that has recently garnered attention owing to the recognition that the erosion rates of bedrock channels largely set the pace of landscape evolution. In this work, we evaluate valley width, terrace distribution, and bedload provenance in terms of reach scale variation in lithology in the study reach and discuss the implications for landscape evolution in a catchment with relatively flat‐lying stratigraphy and very little uplift. A reach of the Buffalo National River in Arkansas was partitioned into lithologic reaches and the mechanical and chemical resistance of the main lithologies making up the catchment was measured. Valley width and the spatial distribution of terraces were compared among the different lithologic reaches. The surface grain size and provenance of coarse (2–90 mm) sediment of both modern gravel bars and older terrace deposits that make up the former bedload were measured and defined. The results demonstrate a strong impact of lithology upon valley width, terrace distribution, and bedload provenance and therefore, upon landscape evolution processes. Channel down‐cutting through different lithologies creates variable patterns of resistance across catchments and continents. Particularly in post‐tectonic and non‐tectonic landscapes, the variation in resistance that arises from the exhumation of different rocks in channel longitudinal profiles can impact local base levels, initiating responses that can be propagated through channel networks. The rate at which that response is transmitted through channels is potentially amplified and/or mitigated by differences between the resistance of channel beds and bedload sediment loads. In the study reach, variation in lithologic resistance influences the prevalence of lateral and vertical processes, thus producing a spatial pattern of terraces that reflects rock type rather than climate, regional base level change, or hydrologic variability. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Calibration of Parameter Fields Consisting of Multiple Statistical Populations

If a parameter field to be calibrated consists of more than one statistical population, usually not only the parameter values are uncertain, but the spatial distributions of the populations are uncertain as well. In this study, we demonstrate the potential of the multimodal calibration method we proposed recently for the calibration of such fields, as applied to real-world ground water models with several additional stochastic parameter fields. Our method enables the calibration of the spatial distribution of the statistical populations, as well as their spatially correlated parameterization, while honoring the complete prior geostatistical definition of the multimodal parameter field. We illustrate the implications of the method in terms of the reliability of the posterior model by comparing its performance to that of a "conventional" calibration approach in which the positions of the statistical populations are not allowed to change. Information from synthetic calibration runs is used to show how ignoring the uncertainty involved in the positions of the statistical populations not only denies the modeler the opportunity to use the measurement information to improve these positions but also unduly influences the posterior intrapopulation distributions, causes unjustified adjustments to the cocalibrated parameter fields, and results in poorer observation reproduction. The proposed multimodal calibration allows a more complete treatment of the relevant uncertainties, which prevents the abovementioned adverse effects and renders a more trustworthy posterior model.     

Algal δ15N values detect a wastewater effluent plume in nearshore and offshore surface waters and three-dimensionally model the plume across a coral reef on Maui, Hawai'i, USA

The coral reef at Kahekili, Maui is located ~300 m south of the Lahaina Wastewater Reclamation Facility which uses four Class V injection wells to dispose of 3-5 million gallons of wastewater effluent daily. Prior research documented that the wastewater effluent percolates into the nearshore region of Kahekili. To determine if the wastewater effluent was detectable in the surface waters offshore, we used algal bioassays from the nearshore region to 100 m offshore and throughout the water column from the surface to the benthos. These algal bioassays documented that significantly more wastewater effluent was detected in the surface rather than the benthic waters and allowed us to generate a three-dimensional model of the wastewater plume in the Kahekili coastal region. Samples located over freshwater seeps had the highest δ(15)N values (~30-35‰) and the effluent was detected in surface samples 500 m south and 100 m offshore of the freshwater seeps (~8-11‰).     

Percolation losses in paddy fields with a dynamic soil structure: model development and applications

The hydraulic characteristics of the plough pan of paddy fields provide continuous ponding conditions during the growing season and control the water use efficiency in wet rice production. Its saturated hydraulic conductivity K_s, however, exhibits a large spatiotemporal variability as a consequence of a highly dynamic soil structure involving temporary shrinkage cracks. Water flow through the earthen bunds surrounding the fields further contributes to the uncertainty in water flux calculations. The objective of this study was to develop a simple deterministic model with stochastic elements (‘PADDY‐FLUX’) for depiction of deep percolation, and to assess the effect of different water management scenarios on percolation in two channel command areas. Darcy's law is used as the fundamental equation for water flow calculations with the ponding water depth h as a time‐dependent variable. Flux uncertainty is estimated by a Monte‐Carlo‐type implementation. K_s is treated as a random variable of a bimodal probability density function (PDF), which is the weighted sum of two Gaussian PDFs (accounting for a matrix and a preferential flow domain). The weighing factor α is a function of h, reflecting an increasing risk for preferential flow situations after desiccation and the development of shrinkage cracks. Under‐bund percolation is calculated using transfer functions. The results demonstrate that percolation losses increase in the following order: continuous soil saturation < continuous flooding (CF) < mid‐season drainage and intermittent irrigation (MD + II) < mid‐season drainage and continuous flooding. The bunds contribute up to 54 and 17% to total fluxes under CF and MD + II, respectively. Preferential water fluxes are responsible for the major part of water losses as soon as desiccation causes the formation of shrinkage cracks. As a conclusion, continuous soil saturation should be promoted as the least water‐intensive irrigation regime, while intermittent irrigation is recommended only in case that irreversible shrinkage cracks have already developed. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seasonal controls on stream chemical export across diverse coastal watersheds in the USA

The current study focuses on understanding key factors controlling geochemical export in eight diverse coastal watersheds at seasonal and annual time scales. Geochemical, atmospheric and hydrologic data across a range of hydro‐climatic regimes and varying land uses were investigated and relationships analysed. A hyperbolic dilution model was fitted for each watershed system to evaluate discharge–concentration relationships. Nitrate concentration effects were observed in watersheds exposed to high atmospheric deposition rates as well as agricultural watersheds, whereas urban watersheds showed nitrate dilution effects. Dilution patterns were observed for calcium, magnesium and sulfate for almost all watersheds. Seasonal loads for almost all constituents were noted to be mainly driven by hydrologic seasonality, but are also dependent on inputs (atmospheric deposition and land use sources). Understanding the primary controls on hydro‐chemical interactions is critical for developing and refining predictive water quality models, especially in coastal watersheds where sensitive downstream ecosystems act as receiving waters for upstream pollutant loads. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Correlations between VIMS and RADAR data over the surface of Titan: Implications for Titan’s surface properties

We apply a multivariate statistical method to Titan data acquired by different instruments onboard the Cassini spacecraft. We have searched through Cassini/VIMS hyperspectral cubes, selecting those data with convenient viewing geometry and that overlap with Cassini/RADAR scatterometry footprints with a comparable spatial resolution. We look for correlations between the infrared and microwave ranges the two instruments cover. Where found, the normalized backscatter cross-section obtained from the scatterometer measurement, corrected for incidence angle, and the calibrated antenna temperature measured along with the scatterometry echoes, are combined with the infrared reflectances, with estimated errors, to produce an aggregate data set, that we process using a multivariate classification method to identify homogeneous taxonomic units in the multivariate space of the samples.In medium resolution data (from 20 to 100 km/pixel), sampling relatively large portions of the satellite’s surface, we find regional geophysical units matching both the major dark and bright features seen in the optical mosaic. Given the VIMS cubes and RADAR scatterometer passes considered in this work, the largest homogeneous type is associated with the dark equatorial basins, showing similar characteristics as each other on the basis of all the considered parameters.On the other hand, the major bright features seen in these data generally do not show the same characteristics as each other. Xanadu, the largest continental feature, is as bright as the other equatorial bright features, while showing the highest backscattering coefficient of the entire satellite. Tsegihi is very bright at 5 μm but it shows a low backscattering coefficient, so it could have a low roughness on a regional scale and/or a different composition. Another well-defined region, located southwest of Xanadu beyond the Tui Regio, seems to be detached from the surrounding terrains, being bright at 2.69, 2.78 and 5 μm but having a low radar brightness. In this way, other units can be found that show correlations or anti-correlations between the scatterometric response and the spectrophotometric behavior, not evident from the optical remote sensing data.     

On the in situ aqueous alteration of soils on Mars

Early (>3 Gy) wetter climate conditions on Mars have been proposed, and it is thus likely that pedogenic processes have occurred there at some point in the past. Soil and rock chemistry of the Martian landing sites were evaluated to test the hypothesis that in situ aqueous alteration and downward movement of solutes have been among the processes that have transformed these portions of the Mars regolith. A geochemical mass balance shows that Martian soils at three landing sites have lost significant quantities of major rock-forming elements and have gained elements that are likely present as soluble ions. The loss of elements is interpreted to have occurred during an earlier stage(s) of weathering that may have been accompanied by the downward transport of weathering products, and the salts are interpreted to be emplaced later in a drier Mars history. Chemical differences exist among the sites, indicating regional differences in soil composition. Shallow soil profile excavations at Gusev crater are consistent with late stage downward migration of salts, implying the presence of small amounts of liquid water even in relatively recent Martian history. While the mechanisms for chemical weathering and salt additions on Mars remain unclear, the soil chemistry appears to record a decline in leaching efficiency. A deep sedimentary exposure at Endurance crater contains complex depth profiles of SO₄, Cl, and Br, trends generally consistent with downward aqueous transport accompanied by drying. While no model for the origin of Martian soils can be fully constrained with the currently available data, a pedogenic origin is consistent with observed Martian geology and geochemistry, and provides a testable hypothesis that can be evaluated with present and future data from the Mars surface.     

Perspectives on present-day sea level change: a tribute to Christian le Provost

In this paper, we first discuss the controversial result of the work by Cabanes et al. (Science 294:840–842, 2001), who suggested that the rate of past century sea level rise may have been overestimated, considering the limited and heterogeneous location of historical tide gauges and the high regional variability of thermal expansion which was supposed to dominate the observed sea level. If correct, this conclusion would have solved the problem raised by the IPCC third assessment report [Church et al, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 881, 2001], namely, the factor two difference between the 20th century observed sea level rise and the computed climatic contributions. However, recent investigations based on new ocean temperature data sets indicate that thermal expansion only explains part (about 0.4 mm/year) of the 1.8 mm/year observed sea level rise of the past few decades. In fact, the Cabanes et al.’s conclusion was incorrect due to a contamination of abnormally high ocean temperature data in the Gulf Stream area that led to an overestimate of thermal expansion in this region. In this paper, we also estimate thermal expansion over the last decade (1993–2003), using a new ocean temperature and salinity database. We compare our result with three other estimates, two being based on global gridded data sets, and one based on an approach similar to that developed here. It is found that the mean rate of thermosteric sea level rise over the past decade is 1.5±0.3 mm/year, i.e. 50% of the observed 3 mm/year by satellite altimetry. For both time spans, past few decades and last decade, a contribution of 1.4 mm/year is not explained by thermal expansion, thus needs to be of water mass origin. Direct estimates of land ice melt for the recent years account for about 1 mm/year sea level rise. Thus, at least for the last decade, we have moved closer to explaining the observed rate of sea level rise than the IPCC third assessment report.