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51.
Yvonne-Marie Hermanns Antonio Martinez Cortizas Helge Arz Rüdiger Stein Harald Biester 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2013,49(4):563-573
There is ongoing debate about the relative influence of aquatic production, flux, and sedimentation of aquatic and terrestrial organic matter on mercury accumulation in lake sediments. In this study, lake sediments spanning the past 4,250 years, were collected from remote, organic-rich Lake Hambre, Patagonia (53° S) and investigated for changes in the accumulation of pre-anthropogenic mercury and organic matter of aquatic and terrestrial origin. Natural mercury accumulation varied by up to a factor of four, comparable to the recent anthropogenic forcing of the mercury cycle (factor 3–5). Hydrogen and Oxygen indices (HI and OI, Rock–Eval©) and nitrogen/carbon ratios of the organic matter, combined with multi-element sediment data, reveal intense changes in aquatic productivity as well as influx of terrestrial organic matter into the lake. Evaluation of the multi-element dataset using Principal Component Analysis shows clear covariation of mercury with other soil-derived elements such as copper and yttrium. This covariance reflects a common transport mechanism, i.e. leaching of trace-element-bearing organic matter complexes from catchment soils. Correlation between changes in aquatic productivity and mercury concentrations occurs in some sections of the record, but we do not suggest they are linked by a direct causal relationship. Mass balance approaches suggest that mercury scavenging and accumulation in this organic-rich lake is controlled by the supply of mercury from catchment soils rather than the amount of organic material produced within the water column. A common controlling mechanism, i.e. changing climate, however, is thought to independently drive variations in both the flux of terrestrial organic matter mercury complexes and aquatic productivity. 相似文献
52.
Vulnerability of buildings to debris flow impact 总被引:5,自引:1,他引:4
Quantitative risk assessments (QRAs) for landslide hazards are increasingly being executed to determine an unmitigated level
of risk and compare it with risk tolerance criteria set by the local or federal jurisdiction. This approach allows urban planning
with a scientific underpinning and provides the tools for emergency preparedness. Debris-flow QRAs require estimates of the
hazard probability, spatial and temporal probability of impact (hazard assessment) and vulnerability of the elements at risk.
The vulnerability term is perhaps the most difficult to estimate confidently because (a) human death in debris flows is most
commonly associated with building damage or collapse and is thus an indirect consequence and (b) the type and scale of building
damage is very difficult to predict. To determine building damage, an intensity index (I
DF) was created as the product of maximum expected flow depth d and the square of the maximum flow velocity v (I
DF = dv
2). The I
DF surrogates impact force and thus correlates with building damage. Four classes of building damage were considered ranging
from nuisance flood/sedimentation damage to complete destruction. Sixty-six well-documented case studies in which damage,
flow depth and flow velocity were recorded or could be estimated were selected through a search of the global literature,
and I
DF was plotted on a log scale against the associated damage. As expected, the individual damage classes overlap but are distinctly
different in their respective distributions and group centroids. To apply this vulnerability model, flow velocity and flow
depth need to be estimated for a given building location and I
DF calculated. Using the existing database, a damage probability (P
DF) can then be computed. P
DF can be applied directly to estimate the likely insurance loss or associated loss of life. The model presented here should
be updated with more case studies and is therefore made openly available to international researchers who can access it at
. 相似文献
53.
Earthquake Modelling at the Country Level Using Aggregated Spatio-Temporal Point Processes 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
The goal of this paper is to derive a hazard map for earthquake occurrences in Pakistan from a catalogue that contains spatial coordinates of shallow earthquakes of magnitude 4.5 or larger aggregated over calendar years. We test relative temporal stationarity by the KPSS statistic and use the inhomogeneous J-function to test for inter-point interactions. We then formulate a cluster model, and de-convolve in order to calculate the hazard map, and verify that no particular year has an undue influence on the map. Within the borders of the single country, the KPSS test did not show any deviation from homogeneity in the spatial intensities. The inhomogeneous J-function indicated clustering that could not be attributed to inhomogeneity, and the analysis of aftershocks showed some evidence of two major shocks instead of one during the 2005 Kashmir earthquake disaster. Thus, the spatial point pattern analysis carried out for these data was insightful in various aspects and the hazard map that was obtained may lead to improved measures to protect the population against the disastrous effects of earthquakes. 相似文献
54.
分辨多数余震和后续主震是由静态应力触发(Stein,1999;Todaetal,2005;Parsons,2002)还是动态应力触发(Hilletal,1993;kilb,2003;Brodsky and Prejean,2005;Gomberg and Johnson,2005;Hill and Prejean,2007),对理解地震内在作用和预测地震危险性是有必要的(Freed,2005)。Felzer和Brodsky(2006)分析了2≤M<3和3≤M<4级主震后5min内余震的空间分布情况,发现距主震50km范围内M≥2余震具有特定的幂律衰减关系,且衰减曲线的斜率为-1.35。据此,他们认为余震随距离的衰减只能用动态触发来解释。基于上述假设我们进行了一系列的检验,但没有一个可通过检验,进而,本文中对这种衰减关系提出了另外一种解释。在距离2≤M<3主震300m以外的地方,主震前5min内的地震活动性衰减与主震后5min内的衰减没有显著的区别,表明主震对它静态触发区域以外的地方没有影响。表征余震基本特性的大森随时间衰减关系在距离主震10km以外的地方是不存在的。最后,发现在主震波前未到达之前的余震中发现了... 相似文献
55.
In this paper, the application of an efficient, transparent and accurate kinematic-cyclic constitutive model based on the fuzzy-set concepts and incremental plasticity theory is presented to show its capability in modeling cyclic mobility of saturated granular soil. The nature and kinematic mechanism of the membership functions in the fuzzy-set constitutive model are illustrated. The model’s capability of modeling soil dilatancy is investigated. Important features of volume change and pore water pressure build-up related to soil cyclic mobility are captured. The formulation of the proposed model is relatively simple and it can be readily implemented in finite element codes. The enhanced fuzzy-set model is capable of simulating ground motion problems particularly related to cyclic mobility, soil liquefaction, and spreading behavior. 相似文献
56.
Black dimensional stones: geology, technical properties and deposit characterization of the dolerites from Uruguay 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Manuela Morales Demarco Pedro Oyhantçabal Karl-Jochen Stein Siegfried Siegesmund 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2011,63(7-8):1879-1909
Dimensional stones with a black color occupy a prominent place on the international market. Uruguayan dolerite dikes of andesitic and andesitic–basaltic composition are mined for commercial blocks of black dimensional stones. A total of 16 dikes of both compositions were studied and samples collected for geochemical and petrographical analysis. Color measurements were performed on different black dimensional stones in order to compare them with the Uruguayan dolerites. Samples of the two commercial varieties (Absolute Black and Moderate Black) were obtained for petrophysical analysis (e.g. density, porosity, uniaxial compressive strength, tensile strength, etc.). Detailed structural analyses were performed in several quarries. Geochemistry and petrography determines the intensity of the black color. The Uruguayan dolerite Absolute Black is the darkest black dimensional stone analyzed in this study. The petrophysical properties of Uruguayan dolerites make them one of the highest quality black dimensional stones. Structural analyses show that five joint sets have been recognized: two sub-vertical joints, one horizontal and two diagonal. These joint sets are one of the most important factors that control the deposits, since they control the block size distribution and the amount of waste material. 相似文献
57.
J. Stein E. Richard J. P. Lafore J. P. Pinty N. Asencio S. Cosma 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2000,72(2-4):203-221
Summary ?Simulations of two heavy rainfall events south of the Alps have been conducted with a non-hydrostatic model at horizontal
resolutions ranging from 40 to 2.5 km. Emphasis is placed on the assessment of two recent model developments: a detailed explicit
mixed phase microphysical scheme and a two-way interactive grid nesting method. In the high-resolution simulations, the impact
of the ice phase was found to be quite substantial, accelerating the propagation of the surface front and modifying the spatial
distribution of the rainfall. Simulations carried out with two-way interactive grid nesting yielded more realistic overall
precipitation patterns, particularly at the finest horizontal resolution.
Received March 22, 1999/Revised June 28, 1999 相似文献
58.
Ruediger Stein 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2000,89(3):447-449
59.
Arctic sea ice and Eurasian climate: A review 总被引:12,自引:0,他引:12
GAO Yongqi SUN Jianqi LI Fei HE Shengping Stein SANDVEN YAN Qing ZHANG Zhongshi Katja LOHMANN Noel KEENLYSIDE Tore FUREVIK SUO Lingling 《大气科学进展》2015,32(1):92-114
The Arctic plays a fundamental role in the climate system and has shown significant climate change in recent decades,including the Arctic warming and decline of Arctic sea-ice extent and thickness. In contrast to the Arctic warming and reduction of Arctic sea ice, Europe, East Asia and North America have experienced anomalously cold conditions, with record snowfall during recent years. In this paper, we review current understanding of the sea-ice impacts on the Eurasian climate.Paleo, observational and modelling studies are covered to summarize several major themes, including: the variability of Arctic sea ice and its controls; the likely causes and apparent impacts of the Arctic sea-ice decline during the satellite era,as well as past and projected future impacts and trends; the links and feedback mechanisms between the Arctic sea ice and the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation, the recent Eurasian cooling, winter atmospheric circulation, summer precipitation in East Asia, spring snowfall over Eurasia, East Asian winter monsoon, and midlatitude extreme weather; and the remote climate response(e.g., atmospheric circulation, air temperature) to changes in Arctic sea ice. We conclude with a brief summary and suggestions for future research. 相似文献
60.
Søren Munch Kristiansen Jacob Clement Yde Teresa Gómez Bárcena Bjarne Holm Jakobsen Jesper Olsen Niels Tvis Knudsen 《Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography》2013,95(2):97-108
Groundwater in front of warm‐based glaciers is likely to become a more integrated part of the future proglacial hydrological system at high latitudes due to global warming. Here, we present the first monitoring results of shallow groundwater chemistry and geochemical fingerprinting of glacier meltwater in front of a warm‐based glacier in Southeast Greenland (Mittivakkat Gletscher, 65° 41′ N, 37° 48′ W). The groundwater temperature, electrical conductivity and pressure head were monitored from August 2009 to August 2011, and water samples were collected in 2009 and analyzed for major ions and water isotopes (δD, δ18O). The 2 yrs of monitoring revealed that major outbursts of glacier water during the ablation season flushed the proglacial aquifer and determined the groundwater quality for the next 2–8 weeks until stable chemical conditions were reached again. Water isotope composition shows that isotopic fractionation occurs in both groundwater and glacier meltwater, but fractionation due to evaporation from near‐surface soil moisture prior to infiltration has the most significant effect. This study shows that groundwater in Low Arctic Greenland is likely to possess a combined geochemical and isotopic composition, which is distinguishable from other water sources in the proglacial environment. However, the shallow groundwater composition at a given time is highly dependent on major outbursts of glacier water in the previous months. 相似文献