An integrated procedure to evaluate hydrological models

The growing concern for health‐related problems deriving from pollutants leaching is driving national and international administrations to support the development of tools for evaluating the effects of alternate management scenarios and identifying vulnerable areas. Cropping systems models are powerful tools for evaluating leachates under different environmental, social, and management conditions. As percolating water is the transport vehicle for pollutants transport in soil, a reliable evaluation of water balance models is a fundamental prerequisite for investigating pesticides and nitrate fate. As specific approaches for the evaluation of multi‐layer evolution of state variables are missing, we propose a fuzzy‐based, integrated indicator (I_SWC: 0, best; 1, worst) for a comprehensive evaluation of soil water content (SWC) simulations. We aggregated error metrics with others quantifying the homogeneity of errors across different soil layers, the capability of models to reproduce complex dynamics function of both time and soil depth, and model complexity. We tested I_SWC on a sample dataset where the models CropSyst and CERES‐Wheat were used to simulate SWC for winter wheat systems. I_SWC revealed that, in the explored conditions, the global assessment of the two models' performances allowed identification of CropSyst as the best (average I_SWC = 0·441, with a value of 0·537 obtained by CERES‐Wheat), although each model prevailed for some of the metrics. CropSyst presented the highest accuracy (average agreement module = 0·400), whereas CERES‐Wheat's accuracy was slightly worse, although achieved with a simplified modelling approach (average Akaike Information Criterion = − 230·44), thereby favouring large‐area applicability. The non‐univocal scores achieved by the models for the different metrics support the use of multi‐metric evaluation approaches for quantifying the different aspects of water balance model performances. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluation of the SEDD model for predicting sediment yield at the Sicilian experimental SPA2 basin

In this paper a spatially distributed model of the hillslope sediment delivery processes, named the sediment delivery distributed (SEDD) model, is initially reviewed; the model takes into account the sediment delivery processes due to both the hillslope sediment transport and the effects of slope curvature. Then the rainfall and sediment yield events measured at the experimental SPA2 basin, in Sicily, are used both to calibrate the SEDD model and to verify the predictive capability of the distributed sediment delivery approach at event scale. For the SPA2 basin discretized into morphological units and stream tubes, the SEDD model is calibrated at event scale using the measurements carried out at the outlet of the experimental basin in the period December 2000–January 2001. The model calibration is used to determine a relationship useful for estimating the unique coefficient β_e of the model by rainfall erosivity factor R_e at event scale. To test the predictive capability of the β_e = f(R_e) relationship, 20 events measured in the period September 2002–December 2005 are used; the comparison between measured sediment yield values and calculated ones for all monitored events shows that the sediment delivery distributed approach has a good predictive ability at event scale. The analysis also shows that estimating β_e by the relationship β_e = f(R_e) gives a better agreement between measured and calculated sediment yields than obtained with the median value β_e,m of all 27 calculated β_e values. Finally the analysis at annual scale, for the period 2000–2005, allows the estimation of the median value β_a,m representative of the annual behaviour. This analysis shows that the sediment delivery distributed approach also has a good predictive ability at annual scale. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effectiveness of simple approaches in mitigating residual deformations in buildings

Developments in performance‐based seismic design and assessment approaches have emphasized the importance of considering residual deformations. Recent investigations have also led to a proposed direct displacement‐based design (DDBD) approach which includes an explicit consideration of the expected residual deformations as an integral part of the design process. Having estimated the expected residual deformations in a structure, engineers are faced with the problem of reducing them to meet the targeted performance levels under pre‐defined seismic hazard levels. Previous studies have identified the post‐yield stiffness as a primary factor influencing the magnitude of residual deformations in single degree of freedom and multiple degree of freedom structures. In this paper, a series of simple approaches to increase the post‐yield stiffness of traditional framed and braced systems for the purpose of reducing residual deformations are investigated. These methods do not utilize recentring post‐tensioned technology. This contribution addresses the feasibility of altering the lateral post‐yield stiffness of structural systems by: (i) using different reinforcement materials with beneficial features in their stress–strain behaviour; (ii) re‐designing the section geometry and properties of primary seismic‐resisting elements; and (iii) introducing a secondary elastic frame to act in parallel with the primary system. The efficiency of each of these techniques is investigated through monotonic and cyclic moment‐curvature and non‐linear time‐history analyses. Of these approaches the design and introduction of an elastic secondary system was found to be most effective and consistent in reducing residual deformations. A simplified design approach for achieving the desired increase of a system's post‐yield stiffness is also presented. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A viscoelastic shear zone model of compressional and extensional plate boundaries

A model is proposed describing the mechanical evolution of a shear zone along compressional and extensional plate boundaries, subject to constant strain rate. The shear zones are assumed as viscoelastic with Maxwell rheology and with elastic and rheological parameters depending on temperature and petrology. Stress and strain are computed as functions of time and depth. For both kinds of boundaries the model reproduces the existence of a shallow seismogenic zone, characterized by a stress concentration. The thickness of the seismogenic layer is evaluated considering the variations of shear stress and frictional strength on faults embedded in the shear zone. Assuming that a fault dislocation takes place, the brittle-ductile transition is assumed to occur at the depth at which the time derivative of total shear stress changes from positive to negative values. The effects of different strain rates and geothermal gradients on the depth of the brittle-ductile transition are studied. The model predictions are consistent with values inferred from seismicity data of different boundary zones.     

Orbit injection error analysis for the Lageos III mission

An analysis is presented of the orbital injection errors for the Lageos III satellite mission. Several methods are introduced for the solution of the Inverse Problem in the Theory of Errors. The novelty of the present approach consists in the use of the full geopotential covariance matrix in the error propagation equations. The GEM-T1 covariance matrix is used. It is found that by properly accounting for the correlation among the even zonal harmonic coefficients the acceptable error bounds increase by an order of magnitude with respect to the case when only the variances are used. The most stringent constraint, even when using the full covariance, is on inclination, whose nominal value must be realized within approximately 0.1° for the recovery of the Lense-Thirring precession to be successful at the 3% level (accounting only for injection errors). The associated tolerance in the semimajor axis is about 30 km while that in eccentricity is approximately 0.2. However, if the errors in semimajor axis and eccentricity can be kept to the routinely achievable levels respectively of 10 km and 0.004, then the tolerance in inclination can be relaxed to 0.2°.     

The Calabrian Stage redefined

The name Calabrian was introduced in the geological literature by the French stratigrapher Maurice Gignoux in 1910, and later described in his important monograph （633 pages） ＂Les formations marines pliocknes et quaternaires de l＇ltalie du sud et de la Sicile ＂published in 1913. Detailed data were provided on several sections （Santa Maria di Catanzaro, Caraffa, Monasterace, Palermo） and on their fossil content. The Calabrian Stage has commonly been used for over fifty years as the oldest subdivision of the Qua- ternary, notably in the time scales of Berggren ＆ van Cou- vering （1974） and Haq ＆ Eysinga （1987）. However, after the GSSP for the Pliocene/Pleistocene boundary （P/P） was approved by INQUA in 1982 and ratified by lUGS in 1984 at the Vrica section of Calabria, there was a decline in the usage of the stage name, and an increasing tendency by many Quaternary workers to question the boundary stratotype. This was because there was increasing evidence that it did not correspond to the beginning of the ＂ice age＂. In doing so, they were not complying with the recommendations presented at the 18th International Geological Congress （IGC） in London, 1948 （Oakley, 1950）.     

Broad search for unstable resonant orbits in the planar circular restricted three-body problem

Unstable resonant orbits in the circular restricted three-body problem have increasingly been used for trajectory design using optimization and invariant manifold techniques. In this study, several methods for computing these unstable resonant orbits are explored including grid searches, flyby maps, and continuation. Families of orbits are computed focusing on orbits with multiple loops near the secondary in the Jupiter–Europa system, and their characteristics are explored. Different parameters such as period and stability are examined for each set of resonant orbits, and the continuation of several specific orbits is explored in more detail.     

The equations of relative motion in the orbital reference frame

The analysis of relative motion of two spacecraft in Earth-bound orbits is usually carried out on the basis of simplifying assumptions. In particular, the reference spacecraft is assumed to follow a circular orbit, in which case the equations of relative motion are governed by the well-known Hill–Clohessy–Wiltshire equations. Circular motion is not, however, a solution when the Earth’s flattening is accounted for, except for equatorial orbits, where in any case the acceleration term is not Newtonian. Several attempts have been made to account for the \(J_2\) effects, either by ingeniously taking advantage of their differential effects, or by cleverly introducing ad-hoc terms in the equations of motion on the basis of geometrical analysis of the \(J_2\) perturbing effects. Analysis of relative motion about an unperturbed elliptical orbit is the next step in complexity. Relative motion about a \(J_2\)-perturbed elliptic reference trajectory is clearly a challenging problem, which has received little attention. All these problems are based on either the Hill–Clohessy–Wiltshire equations for circular reference motion, or the de Vries/Tschauner–Hempel equations for elliptical reference motion, which are both approximate versions of the exact equations of relative motion. The main difference between the exact and approximate forms of these equations consists in the expression for the angular velocity and the angular acceleration of the rotating reference frame with respect to an inertial reference frame. The rotating reference frame is invariably taken as the local orbital frame, i.e., the RTN frame generated by the radial, the transverse, and the normal directions along the primary spacecraft orbit. Some authors have tried to account for the non-constant nature of the angular velocity vector, but have limited their correction to a mean motion value consistent with the \(J_2\) perturbation terms. However, the angular velocity vector is also affected in direction, which causes precession of the node and the argument of perigee, i.e., of the entire orbital plane. Here we provide a derivation of the exact equations of relative motion by expressing the angular velocity of the RTN frame in terms of the state vector of the reference spacecraft. As such, these equations are completely general, in the sense that the orbit of the reference spacecraft need only be known through its ephemeris, and therefore subject to any force field whatever. It is also shown that these equations reduce to either the Hill–Clohessy–Wiltshire, or the Tschauner–Hempel equations, depending on the level of approximation. The explicit form of the equations of relative motion with respect to a \(J_2\)-perturbed reference orbit is also introduced.     

Seismic performance assessment and base-isolated floor protection of statues exhibited in museum halls

A study concerning the evaluation of seismic response of statues exhibited in art museums, and a base-isolated floor strategy for their enhanced protection, are presented in this paper. Attention is particularly focused on statues made of small tensile strength materials, whose behaviour is simulated by a smeared-crack finite element approach. Seismic performance is assessed by referring to four levels specially postulated herein, and namely: (1) Rest conditions; (2) No rocking; (3) Damage control; and (4) Collapse prevention. The response is investigated via incremental dynamic analysis, by progressively increasing the amplitude of the ground motion histories adopted as inputs, and by relating output data to the limit conditions fixed for the above-mentioned performance levels. The assessment procedure is applied to a demonstrative case study, represented by a marble statue to be exhibited in the museum wing situated at the ground level of a medieval castle in Italy, according to an architectural hypothesis of partial rebuilding and reuse of the stronghold. The design solution for the base-isolated floor consists in a system of double-friction pendulum isolators. The finite element model constitutive laws and parameters, the dynamic analyses carried out in fixed-base and base-isolated floor conditions, and the practical implementation of the assumed performance assessment criteria are reported for the statue examined, along with a selection of technical details of the floor design.