The identifiability of parameters in a water quality model of the Biebrza River, Poland

The identifiability of model parameters of a steady state water quality model of the Biebrza River and the resulting variation in model results was examined by applying the Monte Carlo method which combines calibration, identifiability analysis, uncertainty analysis, and sensitivity analysis. The water quality model simulates the steady state concentration profiles of chloride, phosphate, ammonium, and nitrate as a function of distance along a river. The water quality model with the best combination of parameter values simulates the observed concentrations very well. However, the range of possible modelled concentrations obtained for other more or less equally eligible combinations of parameter values is rather wide. This range in model outcomes reflects possible errors in the model parameters. Discrepancies between the range in model outcomes and the validation data set are only caused by errors in model structure, or (measurement) errors in boundary conditions or input variables. In this sense the validation procedure is a test of model capability, where the effects of calibration errors are filtered out. It is concluded that, despite some slight deviations between model outcome and observations, the model is successful in simulating the spatial pattern of nutrient concentrations in the Biebrza River.     

Numerical Studies with a Regional Atmospheric Climate Model Based on Changes in the Roughness Length for Momentum and Heat Over Antarctica

A regional atmospheric climate model is used toexamine the effect of changes in the roughnesslengths of momentum (_z0m) and heat (_z0h)on the structure of the lower atmosphere and on thesurface energy fluxes over Antarctica. Fourexperiments were carried out in which _z0mand/or _z0h were altered with respect to acontrol experiment. The changes consisted of (1) alowering of _z0m from a field aggregated froma vegetation map with an orographic correction basedon the European Centre for Medium-Range WeatherForecasts _z0m field, to a constant value of10^-3 m; and (2) a lowering of _z0h from a valueequal to _z0m to a constant value of 10^-3 mor a value dependent on the wind speed via a surfacerenewal model. A reduction of _z0m results in theexpected increase in near-surface wind speed. It alsoresults in an increase in the depth of the layer in whichsouth-easterly near-surface winds prevail, and in adecrease in the strength of the large-scale flow overthe continent, in particular in summer. In theescarpment region a decrease of _z0m is foundto result in too high wind speeds. Surface temperatureson average decrease while atmospheric temperaturesincrease, resulting in an increase of near-surfacestatic stability. Changes in roughness lengths donot significantly change the temperature profiles.The surface fluxes, on average found reduced, aremodelled best by using the _z0h based on thesurface renewal method.     

Crustal thickening in an extensional regime: application to the mid-Norwegian Vøring margin

The structure of the mid-Norwegian volcanic Vøring margin at the onset of the Maastrichtian–Paleocene extension phase reflects the cumulative effect of earlier consecutive rifting events. Lateral structural differences present on the margin at that time are a consequence of migration of the location of maximum extension in time between Norway and Greenland. The most important imprints (Moho depth, thermal structure) of these events on the lithosphere are incorporated in a numerical simulation of the final extension phase. We focus on a possible mechanism of formation of the Vøring Marginal High and address the relationship between spatial and temporal evolution of crustal thinning and thickening, uplift of the surface and strength of the lithosphere.It is found that the Vøring Basin formed the strongest part of the margin which explains why the Maastrichtian–Paleocene rift axis was not located here but instead jumped westward with respect to the earlier rift axes locations. The modeling study predicts that local crustal thickening during extension can be expected when large lateral thermal variations are present in the lithosphere at the onset of extension. Negative buoyancy induced by lateral temperature differences increases downwelling adjacent to the rifting zone; convergence of material at the particular part of the margin is mainly taken up by the lower crust. The model shows that during the final phase of extension, the crust in the Vøring Marginal High area was thickened and the surface uplifted. It is likely that this dynamic process and the effects of magmatic intrusions both acted in concert to form the Marginal High.     

The International Laser Ranging Service and its support for IGGOS

The International Laser Ranging Service (ILRS) was established in September 1998 as a service within the IAG to support programs in geodetic, geophysical, and lunar research activities and to provide data products to the International Earth Rotation Service (IERS) in support of its prime objectives. Now in operation for 5 years, the ILRS develops: (1) the standards and specifications necessary for product consistency and (2) the priorities and tracking strategies required to maximize network efficiency. The service collects, merges, analyzes, archives and distributes satellite and lunar laser ranging data to satisfy a variety of scientific, engineering, and operational needs and encourages the application of new technologies to enhance the quality, quantity, and cost effectiveness of its data products. The ILRS works with: (1) the global network to improve station performance; (2) new satellite missions in the design and building of retroreflector targets to maximize data quality and quantity and (3) science programs to optimize scientific data yield. The ILRS Central Bureau maintains a comprehensive web site as the primary vehicle for the distribution of information within the ILRS community. The site, which can be accessed at: http://ilrs.gsfc.nasa.gov is also available at mirrored sites at the Communications Research Laboratory (CRL) in Tokyo and the European Data Center (EDC) in Munich.During the last 2 years, the ILRS has addressed very important challenges: (1) data from the field stations are now submitted hourly and made available immediately through the data centers for access by the user community; (2) tracking on low satellites has been significantly improved through the sub-daily issue of predictions, drag functions, and the real-time exchange of time biases; (3) analysis products are now submitted in SINEX format for compatibility with the other space geodesy techniques; (4) the Analysis Working Group is heavily engaged in Pilot Projects as it works toward an ILRS “standard” global solution and (5) SLR has significantly increased its participation in the International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF) activity, which is important to the success of IGGOS.     

The influence of particle composition on thorium scavenging in the NE Atlantic ocean (POMME experiment)

²³⁰Th, ²³²Th and ²³⁴Th were analyzed in sinking particles collected by moored and drifting sediment traps in the NE Atlantic Ocean (POMME experiment) in order to constrain the phase(s) carrying Th isotopes in the water column. It reveals a contrasted behaviour between ²³⁴Th and ²³⁰Th. ²³⁴Th is correlated to the particulate organic carbon suggesting that it is primarily scavenged by organic compounds in the surface waters. ²³⁰Th_xs is correlated with Mn, Ba and the lithogenic fraction that are enriched in small suspended particles and incorporated in the sinking particulate flux throughout the water column. The lack of correlation between ²³⁰Th_xs and CaCO₃ or biogenic silica (bSi) indicates that CaCO₃ and bSi are not responsible for ²³⁰Th scavenging in the deep waters of this oceanic region. ²³⁰Th is generally correlated with the lithogenic content of the trapped material but this correlation disappears in winter during strong atmospheric dust inputs suggesting that lithogenic matter is not directly responsible for ²³⁰Th scavenging in the deep waters or that sufficient time is required to achieve particle–solution equilibration. MnO₂ could be the prevalent ²³⁰Th_xs-bearing phase. The narrow range of K_{d_MnO2}^Th obtained for very contrasted oceanic environments supports a global control of ²³⁰Th_xs scavenging by MnO₂ and raises the possibility that the ²³⁰Th–²³¹Pa fractionation is controlled by the amount of colloidal MnO₂ in seawater.     

From water to tillage erosion dominated landform evolution

While water and wind erosion are still considered to be the dominant soil erosion processes on agricultural land, there is growing recognition that tillage erosion plays an important role in the redistribution of soil on agricultural land. In this study, we examined soil redistribution rates and patterns for an agricultural field in the Belgian loess belt. ¹³⁷Cs derived soil erosion rates have been confronted with historical patterns of soil erosion based on soil profile truncation. This allowed an assessment of historical and contemporary landform evolution on agricultural land and its interpretation in relation to the dominant geomorphic process. The results clearly show that an important shift in the relative contribution of tillage and water erosion to total soil redistribution on agricultural land has occurred during recent decades. Historical soil redistribution is dominated by high losses on steep midslope positions and concavities as a result of water erosion, leading to landscape incision and steepening of the topography. In contrast, contemporary soil redistribution is dominated by high losses on convex upperslopes and infilling of slope and valley concavities as a result of tillage, resulting in topographic flattening. This shift must be attributed to the increased mechanization of agriculture during recent decades. This study shows that the typical topographical dependency of soil redistribution processes and their spatial interactions must be accounted for when assessing landform and soil profile evolution.     

Stochastic Modelling of the Impact of Flood Protection Measures Along the River Waal in the Netherlands

River flooding is a problem of international interest. In the past few years many countries suffered from severe floods. A large part of the Netherlands is below sea level and river levels. The Dutch flood defences along the river Rhine are designed for water levels with a probability of exceedance of 1/1250 per year. These water levels are computed with a hydrodynamic model using a deterministic bed level and a deterministic design discharge. Traditionally, the safety against flooding in the Netherlands is obtained by building and reinforcing dikes. Recently, a new policy was proposed to cope with increasing design discharges in the Rhine and Meuse rivers. This policy is known as the Room for the River (RfR) policy, in which a reduction of flood levels is achieved by measures creating space for the river, such as dike replacement, side channels and floodplain lowering. As compared with dike reinforcement, these measures may have a stronger impact on flow and sediment transport fields, probably leading to stronger morphological effects. As a result of the latter the flood conveyance capacity may decrease over time. An a priori judgement of safety against flooding on the basis of an increased conveyance capacity of the river can be quite misleading. Therefore, the determination of design water levels using a fixed-bed hydrodynamic model may not be justified and the use of a mobile-bed approach may be more appropriate. This problem is addressed in this paper, using a case study of the river Waal (one of the Rhine branches in the Netherlands). The morphological response of the river Waal to a flood protection measure (floodplain lowering in combination with summer levee removal) is analysed. The effect of this measure is subject to various sources of uncertainty. Monte Carlo simulations are applied to calculate the impact of uncertainties in the river discharge on the bed levels. The impact of the “uncertain” morphological response on design flood level predictions is analysed for three phenomena, viz. the impact of the spatial morphological variation over years, the impact of the seasonal morphological variation and the impact of the morphological variability around bifurcation points. The impact of seasonal morphological variations turns out to be negligible, but the other two phenomena appear to have each an appreciable impact (order of magnitude 0.05–0.1 m) on the computed design water levels. We have to note however, that other sources of uncertainty (e.g. uncertainty in hydraulic roughness predictor), which may be of influence, are not taken into consideration. In fact, the present investigation is limited to the sensitivity of the design water levels to uncertainties in the predicted bed level.     

GPS monitoring of vertical ground motion in northern Ardenne–Eifel: five campaigns (1999–2003) of the HARD project

We present the HARD project of GPS monitoring of vertical ground motion in NE Ardenne and Eifel (western Europe). Its main purposes are to get a better insight into the present-day rates of vertical ground motion in intraplate settings and to identify the various causes of these motions. Since 1999, we have carried out yearly campaigns of simultaneous GPS measurements at 12 sites situated so as to sample the different tectonic subunits of the study area and especially to record potential displacements across the seismogenic Hockai fault zone. Five campaigns (1999–2003) have been processed currently. Key issues of the data processing with the Gamit software are discussed and first results are presented. Though temporally consistent in many cases, the obtained vertical motion rates are spatially highly variable. They are also much too high (several mm/year) to support a tectonic interpretation, and a long-term influence of groundwater level variations is proposed to account for the observed motions. This influence should be distinguished from seasonal variations and from inter-survey variations linked to the varying degree of soil and subsoil drying off during the successive spring surveys.     

Effect of melt composition on the partitioning of trace elements between titanite and silicate melt

Isobaric and isothermal experiments were performed to investigate the effect of melt composition on the partitioning of trace elements between titanite (CaTiSiO₅) and a range of different silicate melts. Titanite-melt partition coefficients for 18 trace elements were determined by secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS) analyses of experimental run products. The partition coefficients for the rare earth elements and for Th, Nb, and Ta reveal a strong influence of melt composition on partition coefficients, whereas partition coefficients for other studied monovalent, divalent and most quadrivalent (i.e., Zr, Hf) cations are not significantly affected by melt composition. The present data show that the influence of melt composition may not be neglected when modelling trace element partitioning.It is argued that it is mainly the change of coordination number and the regularity of the coordination space of trace elements in the melt structure that controls partition coefficients in our experiments. Furthermore, our data also show that the substitution mechanism by which trace elements are incorporated into titanite crystals may be of additional importance in this context.     

Arsenic mobility in the ambient sulfidic environment: Sorption of arsenic(V) and arsenic(III) onto disordered mackinawite

Arsenate, As(V), sorption onto synthetic iron(II) monosulfide, disordered mackinawite (FeS), is fast. As(V) sorption decreases above the point of zero surface charge of FeS and follows the pH-dependent concentration of positively charged surface species. No redox reaction is observed between the As(V) ions and the mineral surface over the time span of the experiments. This observation shows that As(V) dominantly forms an outer-sphere complex at the surface of mackinawite. Arsenite, As(III), sorption is not strongly pH-dependent and can be expressed by a Freundlich isotherm. Sorption is fast, although slower than that of As(V). As(III) also forms an outer-sphere complex at the surface of mackinawite. In agreement with previous spectroscopic studies, complexation at low As(V) and As(III) concentration occurs preferentially at the mono-coordinated sulfide edge sites. The K_d (L g⁻¹) values obtained from linear fits to the isotherm data are ∼9 for As(V) and ∼2 for As(III). Stronger sorption of As(V) than As(III), and thus a higher As(III) mobility, may be reflected in natural anoxic sulfidic waters when disordered mackinawite controls arsenic mobility.