Determination of lower and upper bounds of predicted production from history-matched models

We present a method to determine lower and upper bounds to the predicted production or any other economic objective from history-matched reservoir models. The method consists of two steps: 1) performing a traditional computer-assisted history match of a reservoir model with the objective to minimize the mismatch between predicted and observed production data through adjusting the grid block permeability values of the model. 2) performing two optimization exercises to minimize and maximize an economic objective over the remaining field life, for a fixed production strategy, by manipulating the same grid block permeabilities, however without significantly changing the mismatch obtained under step 1. This is accomplished through a hierarchical optimization procedure that limits the solution space of a secondary optimization problem to the (approximate) null space of the primary optimization problem. We applied this procedure to two different reservoir models. We performed a history match based on synthetic data, starting from a uniform prior and using a gradient-based minimization procedure. After history matching, minimization and maximization of the net present value (NPV), using a fixed control strategy, were executed as secondary optimization problems by changing the model parameters while staying close to the null space of the primary optimization problem. In other words, we optimized the secondary objective functions, while requiring that optimality of the primary objective (a good history match) was preserved. This method therefore provides a way to quantify the economic consequences of the well-known problem that history matching is a strongly ill-posed problem. We also investigated how this method can be used as a means to assess the cost-effectiveness of acquiring different data types to reduce the uncertainty in the expected NPV.     

Cutting of Phragmites australis as a lake restoration technique: Productivity calculation and nutrient removal in Wuliangsuhai Lake, northern China

Reed is one of the most frequent and dominant species in wetlands all over the world, with common reed (Phragmites australis (Cav.) Trin. ex Steud.) as the most widely distributed species. In many wetlands, P. australis plays a highly ambivalent role. On the one hand, in many wetlands it purifies wastewater, provides habitat for numerous species, and is a potentially valuable raw material, while on the other hand it is an invasive species which expands aggressively, prevents fishing, blocks ditches and waterways, and builds monospecies stands. This paper uses the eutrophic reed-swamp of Wuliangsuhai Lake in Inner Mongolia, northern China, as a case to present the multiple benefits of regular reed cutting. The reed area and aboveground biomass production are calculated based on field data. Combined with data about water and reed nutrient content, the impact of reed cutting on the lake nutrient budget (N and P) is investigated. Currently, at this lake around 100,000 tons of reed are harvested in winter annually, removing 16% and 8% of the total nitrogen and phosphorus influx, respectively. Harvesting all available winter reed could increase the nutrient removal rates to 48% and 24%, respectively. We also consider the effects of summer harvesting, in which reed biomass removal could overcompensate for the nutrient influx but could potentially reduce reed regrowth.     

Why GPS makes distances bigger than they are

Global navigation satellite systems such as the Global Positioning System (GPS) is one of the most important sensors for movement analysis. GPS is widely used to record the trajectories of vehicles, animals and human beings. However, all GPS movement data are affected by both measurement and interpolation errors. In this article we show that measurement error causes a systematic bias in distances recorded with a GPS; the distance between two points recorded with a GPS is – on average – bigger than the true distance between these points. This systematic ‘overestimation of distance’ becomes relevant if the influence of interpolation error can be neglected, which in practice is the case for movement sampled at high frequencies. We provide a mathematical explanation of this phenomenon and illustrate that it functionally depends on the autocorrelation of GPS measurement error (C). We argue that C can be interpreted as a quality measure for movement data recorded with a GPS. If there is a strong autocorrelation between any two consecutive position estimates, they have very similar error. This error cancels out when average speed, distance or direction is calculated along the trajectory. Based on our theoretical findings we introduce a novel approach to determine C in real-world GPS movement data sampled at high frequencies. We apply our approach to pedestrian trajectories and car trajectories. We found that the measurement error in the data was strongly spatially and temporally autocorrelated and give a quality estimate of the data. Most importantly, our findings are not limited to GPS alone. The systematic bias and its implications are bound to occur in any movement data collected with absolute positioning if interpolation error can be neglected.     

The sedimentary and tectonic evolution of the Amur River and North Sakhalin Basin: new evidence from seismic stratigraphy and Neogene–Recent sediment budgets

The North Sakhalin Basin in the western Sea of Okhotsk has been the main site of sedimentation from the Amur River since the Early Miocene. In this article, we present regional seismic reflection data and a Neogene–Recent sediment budget to constrain the evolution of the basin and its sedimentary fill, and consider the implications for sediment flux from the Amur River, in particular testing models of continental‐scale Neogene drainage capture. The Amur‐derived basin‐fill history can be divided into five distinct stages: the first Amur‐derived sediments (>21–16.5 Ma) were deposited during a period of transtension along the Sakhalin‐Hokkaido Shear Zone, with moderately high sediment flux to the basin (71 Mt year^?1). The second stage sequence (16.5–10.4 Ma) was deposited following the cessation of transtension, and was characterised by a significant reduction in sediment flux (24 Mt year^?1) and widespread retrogradation of deltaic sediments. The third (10.4–5.3 Ma) and fourth (5.3–2.5 Ma) stages were characterised by progradation of deltaic sediments and an associated increase in sediment flux (48–60 Mt year^?1) to the basin. Significant uplift associated with regional transpression started during this time in southeastern Sakhalin, but the north‐eastward propagating strain did not reach the NE shelf of Sakhalin until the Pleistocene (<2.5 Ma). This uplift event, still ongoing today, resulted in recycling of older deltaic sediments from the island of Sakhalin, and contributed to a substantially increased total sediment flux to the adjacent basinal areas (165 Mt year^?1). Adjusted rates to discount these local erosional products (117 Mt year^?1) imply an Amur catchment‐wide increase in denudation rates during the Late Pliocene–Pleistocene; however, this was likely a result of global climatic and eustatic effects, combined with tectonic processes within the Amur catchment and possibly a smaller drainage capture event by the Sungari tributary, rather than continental‐scale drainage capture involving the entire upper Amur catchment.     

Phylogeography of the pelagic fish Seriola lalandi at different scales: confirmation of inter-ocean population structure and evaluation of southern African genetic diversity

The study investigated the global and regional phylogeography of the yellowtail kingfish Seriola lalandi by examining genetic diversity and population genetic structure of this species at inter-and intra-ocean level and on a regional scale. DNA fragments of two mitochondrial genes, cytochrome b (Cytb) and cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) and one nuclear gene, recombination activating gene 1 (RAG1), were sequenced to investigate the global-scale phylogeography of this species. The population genetic structure within the South Pacific, as well as along the South African coastline, was examined further using six microsatellite markers. Three distinct clades were identified for S. lalandi, which correspond with previously described subspecies of the North-East Pacific, North-West Pacific and the Southern Hemisphere. Within the latter, additional divergence was observed between the South Pacific and the South-East Atlantic regions. Divergence estimates were indicative of a Pacific origin for S. lalandi populations, because of Pleistocene vicariant events. Microsatellite analyses revealed overall significant genetic differentiation between South African and South Pacific samples. This corroborates recent findings on the global phylogeography of the species. No population differentiation was observed within South Africa, indicating high levels of gene flow.