Comparison of Five Eulerian Air Pollution Forecasting Systems for the Summer of 1999 Using the German Ozone Monitoring Data

Eulerian state-of-the-art air pollution forecasting systems on the European scale are operated routinely by several countries in Europe. DWD and FUB, both Germany, NERI, Denmark, NILU, Norway, and SMHI, Sweden, operate some of these systems. To apply such modeling systems, e.g. for regulatory purposes according to new EU directives, an evaluation and comparison of the model systems is fundamental in order to assess their reliability. One step in this direction is presented in this study: The model forecasts from all five systems have been compared to measurements of ground level ozone in Germany. The outstanding point in this investigation is the availability of a huge amount of data – from forecasts by the different model systems and from observations. This allows for a thorough interpretation of the findings and assures the significance of the observed features. Data from more than 300 measurement stations for a 5-month period (May–September 1999) of the German monitoring networks have been used in this comparison. Different spatial and temporal statistical parameters were applied in the evaluation. Generally, it was found that the most comprehensive models gave the best results. However, the less comprehensive and computational cheaper models also produced good results. The extensive comparison made it possible to point out weak points in the different models and to describe the individual model behavior for a full summer period in a climatological sense. The comparison also gave valuable information for an assessment of individual measurement stations and complete monitoring networks in terms of the representativeness of the observation data.     

Development of the Côte d´Ivoire Basin: reading provenance,sediment dispersal,and geodynamic implications from heavy minerals

The combined approach of conventional and varietal heavy mineral analysis was applied to constrain changes in source rock area, dispersal routes of detritus, and geodynamic setting of the Upper Cretaceous to Neogene Côte d'Ivoire basin. The heavy mineral assemblage of Albian to Turonian sediments reflect a narrow source rock area and short transport distances. A prominent change in the heavy mineral association of Late Cenomanian to Neogene sediments indicates enlargement of source area and longer fluvial transport distances, or longer storage of sediment within the littoral energy fence. The sudden change within the heavy mineral associations marks the transition from the late syn-rift stage to the early passive margin stage of the Southern Atlantic. During Albian to Late Cenomanian time, the basin geometry was mainly controlled by steep slopes and sediments were transported directly to the depocenter. The situation changed in Late Cenomanian time. A small shelf area developed where sediments from different sources were mixed and reworked before deposition. We believe that the W-E direction of the long-shore drift, which transports today huge quantities of near-shore sand, was established at the end of the Paleogene. This resulted from the drifting of southern West Africa across the paleoequator and subsequent change in surface wind directions.     

Stress and displacement analysis of boudinages by the finite-element method

The paper deals with the displacement and stress distribution in boudinage structures. To analyze this, the finite-element method is used. Four models are examined.The first model treats three homogeneous bands. The displacement of the central band produces a barrel-shaped structure. The tension is greatest in the central part of this band and decreases almost continuously towards the shorter edges. If the band ruptures, the rupture will occur in the central part.The second model treats a quarter of a total structure that is already in part a developed boudinage. This development is followed through 19 iterative steps. The displacement analysis demonstrates that the boudin is displaced towards the free short edge and becomes more barrel-shaped, thinner and wider. The mean stress has two, local, tensilestress maxima inside the boudin at the upper boundary: one in the gap area and the other in the matrix at the outer, short edge of the boudin.The third model treats a quarter of a developed boudinage with two materials in the matrix. Displacement analyses demonstrate that the barrel shape of the boudin becomes more pronounced when the competence contrast between boudin and matrix decreases.One axis of principal stress has a direction in every element close to the x-axis of the model. In the area marked PbS (model 6A), this axis shows a local tensile-stress maximum and a local compressive-stress maximum. In model 6B, these points are still extreme points, but the local compressive-stress maximum has changed to a local tensile-stress maximum.The fourth model treats a boudinage in which one boudin is rotated. Displacement analyses demonstrate that the boudins tend to rotate to a position in which they are parallel, diverging a little from a right angle to the angle of the applied pressure. The mean stress demonstrates a pressure shadow in the PbS area, with a slight displacement downwards in the area beside the rotated boudin.The stress distribution corresponds to the mineral distribution of the boudinage from the Udden Mine. The investigation indicates a direct relationship between grain size and stress distribution.     

On the role of eddy mechanisms in the meridional energy transports

Summary Meridional transports of sensible and latent heat associated with standing eddies were computed from climatic mean data, and are compared with information available in the literature. The standing eddy flux of latent heat has a main maximum in the latitude of the subtropical anticyclones, where longitudinal contrasts in the latent heat content of the atmosphere are also pronounced. The standing eddy flux of sensible heat has, in winter, a main maximum in the latitude of the subpolar lows, where marked land-sea contrasts in temperature occur. Longitudinal variations in the energy content of the atmosphere account for constrasts in the latitudinal and seasonal pattern of the standing eddy fluxes of sensible and latent heat.

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Zusammenfassung Mit ortsfesten Störmechanismen verbundene Meridionaltransporte von fühlbarer und latenter Wärme werden auf Grund klimatologischer Daten berechnet und mit den in der Literatur verfügbaren Werten verglichen. Die Störungsbewegung von latenter Wärme hat ein Hauptmaximum in der Breitenlage der subtropischen Hochdruckzellen, wo auch die zonalen Unterschiede im latenten Wärmegehalt der Luft ausgeprägt sind. Die entsprechende Störungsbewegung der fühlbaren Wärme hat im Winter ein Hauptmaximum in der Breitenlage der subpolaren Tiefdruckgebiete, wo auch starke ozeanisch-kontinentale Temperaturgegensätze auftreten. Zonale Unterschiede im Energiegehalt der Atmosphäre bedingen breitenmäßige und jahreszeitliche Gegensätze in der Störungsbewegung von fühlbarer und latenter Wärme.

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Résumé On calcule ici au moyen de données climatologiques les transports méridiens de chaleurs latente et sensible liés à des mécanismes perturbateurs immobiles. Les valeurs ainsi obtenues sont comparées à celles que l'on trouve dans la littérature. Le mouvement perturbateur de la chaleur latente a un maximum principal dans les latitudes des cellules anticycloniques subtropicales. C'est là aussi que l'on rencontre de grandes différences zonales du contenu de l'air en chaleur latente. Le mouvement perturbateur correspondant de la chaleur sensible a, en hiver, un maximum principal dans les latitudes des dépressions subpolaires où l'on rencontre aussi de fortes oppositions de températures entre les continents et les océans. Des différences zonales du contenu de l'atmosphère en énergie provoquent des contradictions saisonnières et en latitude du mouvement perturbateur des chaleurs latente et sensible.

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With 4 Figures     

A study of the kinetic energy budget of the troposphere over the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico

Summary The budget of kinetic energy over the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico during the winter (November–April) and Summer (May–October) half-years of 1960 is established for the finite atmospheric layers 1000/850, 850/700, 700/500, and 500/300 mb. Vertical transports, lateral outflow, and generation of kinetic energy are computed directly from twice-daily aerological soundings, while the dissipation term is obtained as a residual. The frictional dissipation in the boundary layer is independently computed from 1960 ship observations. Kinetic energy dissipation is of the order of 1·10³ ergs·cm^–2 in the layer 1000/850 mb, decreasing in the higher layers. The residual dissipation term would indicate a production of kinetic energy, particularly for the layer 500/300 mb in winter. This would appear consistent with results by other authors. Due to the uncertainties inherent in the computational procedures, however, only limited confidence can be given to the absolute values.

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Zusammenfassung Die Kinetische Energie-Bilanz über dem Amerikanischen Mittelmeer während der Winter-(November–April) und Sommerhälfte (Mai-Oktober) des Jahres 1960 wird für die Schichten 1000/350, 850/700, 700/500 und 500/300 mb untersucht. Vertikaltransporte, seitlicher Export und die Produktion von kinetischer Energie werden direkt von den zweimal täglichen Radiosondenaufstiegen berechnet, während die Vernichtung kinetischer Energie als Restglied der Energiegleichung bestimmt wird. Der Energieverbrauch in der Grenzschicht wird unabhängig auf Grund von Schiffsbeobachtungen des Jahres 1960 abgeschätzt. Die Vernichtung kinetischer Energie hat in der Schicht 1000/850 mb die Grössenordnung von 1·10³ ergs·cm^–2·sec^–1, und nimmt nach den höheren Schichten zu ab. Das Restglied der Energiegleichung zeigt eine Produktion kinetischer Energie vor allem für die Schicht 500/300 mb im Winter an. Das erscheint verträglich mit den Ergebnissen anderer Autoren. Wegen der in den Berechnungsverfahren liegenden Unsicherheiten kommt den Absolutwerten nur begrenzte Gültigkeit zu.

     

Modification of air flow over an escarpment — Results from the Hjardemål experiment

Mean flow, turbulence, and surface pressure measurements over an escarpment are presented. The speed-up in the mean wind field shows the known dependence on stratification. Cross-sections of the standard deviation of horizontal and vertical wind components and of the friction velocity are derived from the data and compare favorably with the numerical model of Zeman and Jensen (1987). The modification of turbulent power spectra at intermediate frequencies can be explained by rapid distortion theory. At very low frequencies, there is a quasi-stationary response to the disturbance. Except for speed-up and standard deviations of the wind components, which are also shown for downslope wind, all results in this paper refer to upslope winds.An analysis of the vertical momentum flux reveals that upstream of the escarpment, most of the flux is transported in sweeps of fast, sinking motion to the ground. Downstream of the escarpment, ejections of slow, rising motion dominate the turbulent transport.     

The emerging water crisis in Bulgaria

Climatic records for the last 15 years indicate that Bulgaria is experiencing a period of exceptionally low precipitation. During 1993, significant water supply problems emerged, approaching crisis proportions in Sofia, the nation's capital, by the end of 1994. The record-setting drought of 1993 can be explained from a synoptic climatic perspective. Whether consequences of the continuing drought could have been foreseen is arguable. That these consequences were fully realized only in 1994 may be understood through examination of Bulgarian water use since the end of the socialist era in 1989. If Bulgaria had experienced the same levels of industrial activity and irrigation as occurred in 1989, the current situation would have been national catastrophe, a situation that could quickly emerge in coming years should climatic patterns persist.     

1990 Watershed Management Symposium Durango, Colorado, USA

Reports

1990 Watershed Management Symposium Durango, Colorado, USA