Seismicity Variations in the Southern Aegean,Greece, Before and After the Large (M7.7) 1956 Amorgos Earthquake Due to Evolving Stress

The largest earthquake (M₀=4.9·10²⁷ dyn·cm) of the 20^th century in the territory of Greece occurred south of Amorgos Island, causing extensive destruction in the southern Aegean area. It occurred on an ENE–trending normal fault that is seated parallel to the Islands southern coastline. Changes in the rates of moderate–size earthquakes (M 5.0) that occurred before and after the Amorgos earthquake, within circular regions centered on its epicenter with radii of 100, 150 and 200 km, are investigated. The rate for moderate–size events just before the main shock appears to be considerably increased when compared to those of either preceding or subsequent periods. Further inspection reveals that more evident seismicity fluctuations are attributed to distances exceeding 100 km. These changes may be indicative of a broad region that is approaching a high stress state prior to an eventual large earthquake. Close to the main event, that is, within the 100–km radius, a remarkable quiescence period lasting about two decades before its occurrence was observed. Changes in seismicity are discussed in combination with static stress changes calculated by the application of the stress evolutionary model that takes into account the coseismic slip associated with the larger events (M 6.5) since the beginning of the 20^th century and the tectonic loading on the major faults in the study area. These larger events, as with the intermediate magnitude seismicity taking place at distances exceeding 100 km and which encircled the quiescent area observed during the last 22 years before the Amorgos earthquake, are well correlated with stress-enhanced areas in each stage of the evolutionary model.     

Forecasting seismicity rates in western Turkey as inferred from earthquake catalog and stressing history

The spatio-temporal variation in seismicity in western Turkey since the late 1970s is investigated through a rate/state model, which considers the stressing history to forecast the reference seismicity rate evolution. The basic catalog was divided according to specific criteria into four subsets, which correspond to areas exhibiting almost identical seismotectonic features. Completeness magnitude and reference seismicity rates are individually calculated for each subset. The forecasting periods are selected to be the inter-seismic time intervals between successive strong (M ≥ 5.8) earthquakes. The Coulomb stress changes associated with their coseismic slip are considered, along with the constant stressing rate to alter the rates of earthquake production. These rates are expressed by a probability density function and smoothed over the study area with different degrees of smoothing. The influence of the rate/state parameters in the model efficiency is explored by evaluating the Pearson linear correlation coefficient between simulated and observed earthquake occurrence rates along with its 95 % confidence limits. Application of different parameter values is attempted for the sensitivity of the calculated seismicity rates and their fit to the real data to be tested. Despite the ambiguities and the difficulties involved in the experimental parameter value determination, the results demonstrate that the present formulation and the available datasets are sufficient enough to contribute to seismic hazard assessment starting from a point such far back in time.     

The 2007 Talala,Saurashtra, western India earthquake sequence: Tectonic implications and seismicity triggering

A damaging and widely felt moderate (M_w 5.0) earthquake occurred in the Talala region of Saurashtra, Gujarat (western India) on November 6, 2007. The highly productive sequence comprised about 1300 micro earthquakes (M > 0.5) out of which 325 of M ? 1.5 that occurred during November 6, 2007–January 10, 2008 were precisely located. The spatial aftershock distribution revealed a NE–SW striking fault in accordance with the centroid moment tensor solution, which in turn implies left-lateral motion. The orientation and sense of shear are consistent with similarly orientated geological fault identified in the area from satellite imagery and field investigation.The aftershocks temporal decay, b-value of frequency–magnitude distribution, spatial fractal dimension, D, and slip ratio (ratio of the slip occurred on the primary fault to the total slip) were examined with the purpose to identify the properties of the sequence. The high b-value (1.18 ± 0.01) may be attributed to the paucity of the larger (M ? 4.0) aftershocks and reveals crustal heterogeneity and low stress regime. The high p-value (1.10 ± 0.39), implying fast decay rate of aftershocks, evidences high surface heat flux. A value of the spatial fractal dimension (D) equal to 2.21 ± 0.02 indicates random spatial distribution and source in a two-dimensional plane that is being filled-up by fractures. A slip ratio of 0.42 reveals that more slip occurred on secondary fault systems.The static Coulomb stress changes due to the coseismic slip of the main shock, enhanced off fault aftershock occurrence. The occurrence of a moderate earthquake (M_w 4.3) on October 5, 2008 inside a region of positive Coulomb stress changes supports the postulation on aftershock triggering. When the stress changes were resolved on a cross section including the stronger (M4.8) foreshock plane that is positioned adjacent to the main fault, it became evident that the activity continued there due to stress transfer from the main rupture.     

Soho Contribution to Prominence Science

We present the main current issues concerning prominence studies. We recall the large range of plasma parameters found in prominences which makes the work of the MHD modeler more difficult. We also summarize the capabilities of the SOHO instrumentation. We present and discuss the most recent SOHO results concerning the determination of temperature, densities, and velocities. We put some emphasis on the different morphologies observed, the diagnostic capabilities of the Lyman lines profiles when accompanied by improved non-LTE modeling, and the information gathered from the first prominence oscillations measured from space. We also make an account of eruptive prominences. We finally discuss what could be done with present and future SOHO data to improve our understanding of prominences.     

On the Nature and Genesis of EUV Waves: A Synthesis of Observations from SOHO, STEREO, SDO, and Hinode (Invited Review)

A major, albeit serendipitous, discovery of the SOlar and Heliospheric Observatory mission was the observation by the Extreme Ultraviolet Telescope (EIT) of large-scale extreme ultraviolet (EUV) intensity fronts propagating over a significant fraction of the Sun??s surface. These so-called EIT or EUV waves are associated with eruptive phenomena and have been studied intensely. However, their wave nature has been challenged by non-wave (or pseudo-wave) interpretations and the subject remains under debate. A string of recent solar missions has provided a wealth of detailed EUV observations of these waves bringing us closer to resolving the question of their nature. With this review, we gather the current state-of-the-art knowledge in the field and synthesize it into a picture of an EUV wave driven by the lateral expansion of the CME. This picture can account for both wave and pseudo-wave interpretations of the observations, thus resolving the controversy over the nature of EUV waves to a large degree but not completely. We close with a discussion on several remaining open questions in the field of EUV waves research.     

Spatio-temporal properties and evolution of the 2013 Aigion earthquake swarm (Corinth Gulf,Greece)

The 2013 Aigion earthquake swarm that took place in the west part of Corinth Gulf is investigated for revealing faulting and seismicity properties of the activated area. The activity started on May 21 and was appreciably intense in the next 3 months. The recordings of the Hellenic Unified Seismological Network (HUSN), which is adequately dense around the affected area, were used to accurately locate 1501 events. The double difference (hypoDD) technique was employed for the manually picked P and S phases along with differential times derived from waveform cross-correlation for improving location accuracy. The activated area with dimensions 6?×?2 km is located approximately 5 km SE of Aigion. Focal mechanisms of 77 events with M?≥?2.0 were determined from P wave first motions and used for the geometry identification of the ruptured segments. Spatio-temporal distribution of earthquakes revealed an eastward and westward hypocentral migration from the starting point suggesting the division of the seismic swarm into four major clusters. The hypocentral migration was corroborated by the Coulomb stress change calculation, indicating that four fault segments involved in the rupture process successively failed by stress change encouragement. Examination of fluid flow brought out that it cannot be unambiguously considered as the driving mechanism for the successive failures.     

Uniform reliability safety format for seismic design of reinforced concrete structures

A safety format is proposed for the flexural design of reinforced concrete members for the combination of seismic and gravity loads, with load and resistance factors which depend on member type, on the value of the target theoretical probability of failure and on the ratio of the load effect due to gravity loads to that due to the nominal value of the seismic action, both obtained by elastic analysis. Safety factors are computed through an advanced Level II reliability procedure, using a limit state inequality between the member rotation ductility supply under monotonic loading and the peak rotation ductility and cyclic energy dissipation demands. Uncertainties considered are: for resistance, the uncertainty of failure under imposed cyclic deformations, and for action, the maximum peak ductility and energy dissipation demands in the structure's lifetime, as obtained through a series of non-linear dynamic analyses of multistorey buildings in 3D. using as input ensembles of bidirectional acceleration time-histories which describe probabilistically the extreme bidirectional seismic action in the structure's lifetime. Computed load and resistance factors are practically independent of the load-effects ratio. The load factor on the seismic action is found to be independent of member type and to increase with the theoretical probability of failure much faster than the elastic spectral value at the structure's fundamental period with probability of exceedance in the structure's lifetime. Simple rules for the dependence of the resistance modification factors on the theoretical failure probability are also derived. As for the computed values of the load factors the moment due to gravity loads is negligible in comparison to the factored seismic moment, a simplified safety checking inequality between the design flexural capacity and a reduced seismic moment is proposed, in which the ratio of the resistance to the load factor plays the role of a force reduction or effective behaviour factor for the member.     

Site-dependent design spectra and strength modification factors, based on records from Greece

Elastic and inelastic spectra are derived, based on a representative sample of acceleration records from Greece, carefully selected based on magnitude, distance and peak ground acceleration criteria, and grouped into three ground condition categories according to the 2004 Eurocode 8 (EC8) provisions. Using software developed in-house, elastic (pseudoacceleration, pseudovelocity and displacement), as well as inelastic (strength and displacement) spectra are computed for various critical damping ratios and ductility levels. After appropriate scaling, mean spectra are computed both irrespective of, as well as for each different, ground condition, and comparisons with EC8 provisions are made. As a further evaluation of the code spectra, three additional earthquake scenarios are considered representing ground-motion characteristics not reflected in the compiled dataset of records. Subsequently, modification factors for strength (q_μ) are derived from statistical analysis of constant ductility spectra, and corresponding empirical relationships, suitable for design purposes, are proposed.