Impact of the Montreal protocol and its amendments on the rate of change of global radiative forcing

Increases in chlorinated and brominated halocarbons are believed to be responsible for the depletion of stratospheric ozone observed over much of the globe in the past decade or so. Ozone depletion is in turn believed to lead to a negative radiative forcing, tending to cool the stratosphere and the surface. We show that the increasing atmospheric concentrations of ozone-depleting halocarbons and onset of related ozone depletion likely led to a negative forcing of the climate system in the 1980s that slowed significantly the rate of change of total anthropogenic radiative forcing due to the combined effect of all greenhouse gases over that decade. Within the next decade, emissions of these halocarbons are expected to rapidly decrease, with corresponding impacts on ozone and radiative forcing. As the emissions of ozone-depleting gases are reduced and eventually phased out, the rate of ozone depletion is expected to decrease and eventually reverse. All other things being equal, we show that the change from deepening ozone depletion in the 1980s to ozone increases in the future should lead to a pronounced increase in the decadal rate of change of anthropogenic greenhouse forcing of the next few decades, perhaps to levels unprecedented in this century.     

Wave packet propagation in an amplifying medium and its application to the dispersion characteristics and to the generation mechanisms of Pc 1 events

The formulae which give the propagation characteristics of a wave packet in a dispersive and amplifying medium, are established. Application is made to the propagation of Pc 1 elements through a magnetosphere constituted of a cold plasma and a high energy proton population. It is shown that the spectral shape, in a frequency-time coordinate system, of the Pc 1 elements is related to two terms : v = d²ω/dk², which represents the variation of the group velocity with frequency and which depends only on the cold plasma characteristics, and μ = -d²γ/dk², in which γ is the amplification coefficient depending on the frequency and which is related to the high energy particle distribution function. When v ? μ, only the usual dispersion effects occur, but a new method is found for determining the line of force on which the micropulsations are generated, without making any assumption about the cold plasma density distribution inside the magnetosphere. It is also possible to deduce some characteristics about the high energy proton distribution. Theoretical computations are presented, which give the frequency variation of the amplification coefficient as a function of the e-folding energy and the anisotropy factor of these high energy protons. Applications are made to ~30 pearl events which are analysed in detail according to this theory. When μ ? v, other effects do appear. After a preliminary phase, the pearl elements can become parallel for a while, or even re-erect before lying again; the duration of each element gives an indication about the number of interacting particles. The conditions for the validity of the quasi-linear theory, and some other non-linear effects related with the interpretation of Pc 1 micropulsations are also discussed.     

Elevation of the olivine-spinel transition in subducted lithosphere: Seismic evidence

The top of the olivine-spinel phase change in subducted oceanic lithosphere can be located by the travel times of seismic waves which have propagated through the slab. P-wave travel-time residuals from deep earthquakes in the Tonga island are observed at Australian seismic stations are grouped according to the depth of the earthquake. The change in mean residual with a change in earthquake depth is related to the velocity contrast between slab and normal mantle at that depth. The curve mean residual versus earthquake depth displays a region of markedly increased slope between earthquake depths of about 250 and 350 km. The most probable explanation of this observation is an elevation by 100 km of the olivine-spinel phase change within the relatively cooler slab. No evidence was found for vertical displacements within the slab of any deeper phase changes.A temperature contrast between slab and normal mantle of about 1,000°C at 250 km depth is implied. This finding confirms current thermal models for subducted lithosphere but is inconsistent with the global intraplate stress field unless only a few percent of the negative buoyancy force at subduction zones is transmitted to the surface plates.     

A chart for designing modal analysis by point counting

Developing the work ofHasofer (1963) andSolomon (1963) concerning the factors controlling the precision of point counting, the authors have designed a chart to facilitate the choice of grid-spacing and sample area for individual minerals. After determining the grain radius, and making a rough estimate of the percentage of the mineral under investigation, suitable combinations of grid-spacing and number of counts can be rapidly determined from the chart.

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Zusammenfassung Diese Arbeit stellt eine Weiterentwicklung derjenigen vonHasofer (1963) undSolomon (1963) dar, die sich mit den Faktoren befaßten, welche die Genauigkeit der Punktezählung bestimmen. Die Autoren haben eine Tabelle entworfen, welche die Wahl der graphostatischen Abstände und des Mustergebietes für einzelne Mineralien erleichtert.

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Résumé Développant le travail deHasofer (1963) et deSolomon (1963) sur les facteurs qui déterminent la précision du compte par points, les auteurs ont élaboré un diagramme pour faciliter le choix du quadrillage et de la superficie d'essai pour des minéraux particuliers.

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Estimation of sedimentary thickness in the Godavari basin

A major portion of the southern part of the Indian subcontinent is classified as a stable continental region. However, a few segments in this region are punctuated by rifts and shear zones that are seismically active. The Godavari rift that sutures the eastern Dharwar and the Bastar cratons is one such region, prone to seismic hazard. Estimation of the sedimentary thickness in these seismically active regions assumes importance since locales of thick and soft sediments are vulnerable to destruction due to surface waves generated by earthquakes. In the present study, data from five broadband seismological stations are utilized to estimate the average sedimentary thickness of the Godavari region using the difference in travel times of the direct S and converted Sp phases from local earthquakes. The thickness of sediments varies between 0.32 and 4.32 km. Also, the site-specific response in terms of the fundamental resonance frequency and the corresponding amplifications are estimated using the well-established Nakamura technique. The predominant frequencies are in the range of 1.3–4.61 Hz, and the amplifications are higher (>1.5) for the stations inside the Godavari basin. Both the thickness and amplification values clearly indicate that the sediments tend to get thicker toward the center of the basin, in good agreement with the geological distribution of the sedimentary units.     

Seismic velocity imaging of the Kumaon–Garhwal Himalaya,India

Natural Hazards - Since the initial collision at 55 Ma, rocks of the Indian crust below the Himalayas have undergone modification chemically and compositionally due to the ongoing...     

Socio-demographic determinants of place attachment in Gauteng,South Africa,using partial proportional odds models

GeoJournal - Determinants of place attachment have been extensively explored in the world now characterised by increased globalisation and mobility. Apart from some studies analysing attachment to...     

A numerical response of the middle atmosphere to the 11-year solar cycle

A two-dimensional numerical model with coupled photochemistry and dynamics has been used to investigate the response of the middle atmosphere (16–116 km) to changes in solar activity over the 11-year solar cycle. Model inputs that vary with solar cycle include solar radiation, cosmic ray and auroral ionization rates and the flux of NO_x at the model's upper boundary.In this study, the results of model runs for solar cycle minimum and maximum conditions are compared. In the stratosphere, using currently accepted estimates of changes in solar radiation at wavelengths longer than 180 nm, only small responses in ozone, temperature and zonal winds are obtained. On the other hand, changes at shorter wavelengths, and the effects of particle precipitation, lead to large variations in the abundances of trace species in the thermosphere and upper mesosphere. In particular, very large abundances of NO_x are produced above 90 km by auroral particle precipitation. Considerable amounts of NO_x are transported subsequently to the stratosphere by the global mean meridional circulation. It is shown that this excess NO_x can lead to significant decreases in ozone concentrations at high latitudes and that it may explain observations of nitrate deposition in Antarctic snow.