Would different methodologies for assessing carbon leakage exposure lead to different risk levels? A case study of the Brazilian industry

Energy-intensive industries play an important role in low-carbon development, being particularly exposed to climate policies. Concern over possible carbon leakage in this sector poses a major challenge for designing effective carbon pricing instruments (CPI). Different methodologies for assessing carbon leakage exposure are currently used by different jurisdictions, each of them based on different approaches and indicators. This paper aims to analyse the extent to which the use of different methodologies leads to different results in terms of exposure to the risk of carbon leakage, using the Brazilian industry sector as a case study. Results indicate that carbon leakage exposure is an expected outcome of eventual CPI implementation in Brazilian industry. However, results vary according to the chosen methodology, so the definition of the criteria is paramount for assessing sectoral exposure to the risk of carbon leakage.

Key policy insights

• Despite increasing discussion about the implementation of carbon pricing on the Brazilian industrial sector, the evaluation of carbon leakage risks is still neglected.

• Assessments of the risk of carbon leakage are directly related to the indicators and criteria used by each methodology. Thus, a given subsector may present different levels of exposure to carbon leakage depending on the methodological choice.

• More than a purely technical discussion, the methodological definition of carbon leakage risk is a political discussion – it can be well-conducted, leading to the success of a CPI, or even sabotaged, by implicitly subsidizing energy-intensive industries.

     

夏季亚洲高空急流纬向非对称变异与北大西洋海温和欧亚陆面热力异常的可能联系

基于1979~2015年ERA-Interim再分析资料,分析了夏季亚洲高空急流纬向非对称变异特征及其可能的外强迫因子。研究发现夏季亚洲200 hPa纬向风异常EOF第二模态（方差贡献为16.4%）主要表现出了急流纬向非对称的空间异常形态,反映了西亚和东亚区域急流南北偏移的反位相变化。通过进一步的诊断分析,我们发现急流纬向非对称变异与北大西洋海表温度（简称海温）和欧亚陆面热力异常可能存在一定的联系。北大西洋三极型海温异常会激发出向下游传播的异常波列,夏季该波列在欧亚大陆上空的异常环流中心与急流纬向非对称相关的异常环流中心对应一致,其中东欧平原的异常反气旋和巴尔喀什湖附近的异常气旋对西亚急流变化存在影响,东亚地区急流的变化与贝加尔湖北部异常气旋和贝加尔湖南部的异常反气旋有关。对比欧亚土壤湿度关键区内垂直环流,陆面热力异常可能会改变局地环流进而影响急流变异,且这种影响存在区域差异。     

What drives policy change for REDD+? A qualitative comparative analysis of the interplay between institutional and policy arena factors

Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) has emerged as a promising climate change mitigation mechanism in developing countries. In order to identify the enabling conditions for achieving progress in the implementation of an effective, efficient and equitable REDD+, this paper examines national policy settings in a comparative analysis across 13 countries with a focus on both institutional context and the actual setting of the policy arena. The evaluation of REDD+ revealed that countries across Africa, Asia and Latin America are showing some progress, but some face backlashes in realizing the necessary transformational change to tackle deforestation and forest degradation. A Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) undertaken as part of the research project showed two enabling institutional configurations facilitating progress: (1) the presence of already initiated policy change; and (2) scarcity of forest resources combined with an absence of any effective forestry framework and policies. When these were analysed alongside policy arena conditions, the paper finds that the presence of powerful transformational coalitions combined with strong ownership and leadership, and performance-based funding, can both work as a strong incentive for achieving REDD+ goals.

Key policy insights

• The positive push of already existing policy change, or the negative stress of resource scarcity together with lack of effective policies, represents institutional conditions that can support REDD+ progress.

• Progress also requires the presence of powerful transformational coalitions and strong ownership and leadership. In the absence of these internal drivers, performance-based funding can work as a strong incentive.

• When comparing three assessments (2012, 2014, 2016) of REDD+ enabling conditions, some progress in establishing processes of change can be observed over time; however, the overall fluctuation in progress of most countries reveals the difficulty in changing the deforestation trajectory away from business as usual.

     

拜泉县霜冻灾害的区划研究

<正>1引言1.1气象灾害区划及防御工作的研究意义气象灾害是指由于气象因素直接或间接的影响造成的灾害,常见的气象灾害主要有干旱、霜冻、洪涝、冰雹、大风等。拜泉县位于黑龙江省西北部,地处小兴安岭余脉与嫩江平原的过渡地带,属寒温带气候。主要气象灾害为水灾、旱灾、霜冻、冰雹、雷电等。给工农业生产造成不同程度的危害,对社会经济造成严重的影响。因此对影响拜泉县的气象灾害进行区划和防御管理对策研究,对提高全县防灾减灾能力具有重要     

中国农业气象模式(CAMM1.0)构建与应用

为发展适宜中国区域农业种植特点的农业气象模式,基于国外作物生长模拟方法,通过模式机理过程改进或重构以及应用方式革新,建立了中国农业气象模式（Chinese AgroMeteorological Model version 1.0,CAMM1.0）。CAMM1.0利用平均温度和土壤水分改进了作物发育进程模式,利用土壤水分改进了作物叶片光合作用、干物质分配和叶面积扩展过程模式,通过蒸发比法扩展了作物蒸散过程模式;自主建立了基于发育进程的冬小麦株高、基于遥感信息的作物灌溉、遥感数据同化、作物长势与灾害评价等模式。基于互联网技术构造了实时运转平台,主要功能包括作物生长过程实时常规模拟与用户个性化定制模拟。CAMM1.0的部分子模式采用多种方法构造,便于多模式集成。CAMM1.0对作物发育进程、光合过程、株高的模拟效果较好,但对土壤水分变化过程的拟合略差,模拟产量略偏低。CAMM1.0评价淮河流域夏玉米年际干旱减弱而涝渍增加的趋势与实际基本相符。     

The last deglaciation in the Picos de Europa National Park (Cantabrian Mountains,northern Spain)

A sedimentological and geochemical study of the Lago Enol sequence (Cantabrian Mountains, northern Spain), together with detailed geomorphological mapping, provides a first record of glacier evolution and climate change over the last 40 ka in the Picos de Europa National Park. The Enol glacier retreated from its maximum extent prior to 40 ka BP as demonstrated by the onset of proglacial lacustrine sedimentation in two glaciated depressions: the Comella hollow to the north (before 40 ka BP) and the Lago Enol (before 38 ka BP). These results support previous evidence that the maximum extent of southern European glaciers occurred earlier than in northern Europe. Alternation of homogeneous and laminated proglacial sediments during the glacier retreat illustrate a dynamic glacial evolution during the Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3 (40–26 ka BP). A slight warming is detected at 26 ka ago with the change from proglacial sediments (in a lake located in contact to the glacier) to glaciolacustrine sedimentation (in a non‐contact or distal lake). Finally, the onset of organic‐rich sediments took place at 18 ka ago. This last transition occurred in two phases, similarly to the North Atlantic Last Termination, suggesting a link between North Atlantic Deep Water formation oscillations and palaeohydrological variability in the Cantabrian Mountains. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analytic element modelling for strip aquifers

The Analytic Element Method (AEM) provides a convenient tool for groundwater flow analysis in unbounded continuous domains. The AEM is based on the superposition of analytic functions, known as elements, useful at both regional and local scales. In this study, analytic elements for strip aquifers are presented. Such aquifers occur in riverine or coastal deposits and in outcrop zones of confined aquifers. Local flow field is modelled indirectly, using a reference plane related to the aquifer domain through the Schwarz‐Christoffel transform. The regional flow is obtained as a solution of the one‐dimensional flow equation. The proposed methodology was tested by modelling two hypothetical situations, which were compared to exact solutions. It is shown that regional boundaries can be reproduced exactly while local fields are adequately reproduced with analytic elements. The developed elements are applied to simulate a real flow field in northeastern Brazil showing good agreement with measured water levels. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimating impacts of warming temperatures on California's electricity system

Despite a clear need, little research has been carried out at the regional-level to quantify potential climate-related impacts to electricity production and delivery systems. This paper introduces a bottom-up study of climate change impacts on California's energy infrastructure, including high temperature effects on power plant capacity, transmission lines, substation capacity, and peak electricity demand. End-of-century impacts were projected using the A2 and B1 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios. The study quantifies the effect of high ambient temperatures on electricity generation, the capacity of substations and transmission lines, and the demand for peak power for a set of climate scenarios. Based on these scenarios, atmospheric warming and associated peak demand increases would necessitate up to 38% of additional peak generation capacity and up to 31% additional transmission capacity, assuming current infrastructure. These findings, although based on a limited number of scenarios, suggest that additional funding could be put to good use by supporting R&D into next generation cooling equipment technologies, diversifying the power generation mix without compromising the system's operational flexibility, and designing effective demand side management programs.     

Study of bond stress–slip relationship and radial dilation in prestressed concrete

This paper presents two test procedures for evaluating the bond stress–slip and the slip–radial dilation relationships when the prestressing force is transmitted by releasing the steel (wire or strand) in precast prestressed elements. The bond stress–slip relationship is obtained with short length specimens, to guarantee uniform bond stress, for three depths of the wire indentation (shallow, medium and deep). An analytical model for bond stress–slip relationship is proposed and compared with the experimental results. The model is also compared with the experimental results of other researchers. Since numerical models for studying bond‐splitting problems in prestressed concrete require experimental data about dilatancy angle (radial dilation), a test procedure is proposed to evaluate these parameters. The obtained values of the radial dilation are compared with the prior estimated by numerical modelling and good agreement is reached. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Subfossil and modern diatom plankton and the paleolimnology of Rotsee (Switzerland) since 1850

The diatom biostratigraphy of the topmost sediment meter of Rotsee, Central Switzerland, is characterized by a major change fromCyclotella comensis-dominated toStephanodiscus hantzschii/S. parvus-dominated assemblages. A comparison between old phytoplankton samples, taken between 1910–1930, and subfossil diatom assemblages is used for dating the upper 35 cm of the core. There is evidence that the change in dominant diatoms occurred in 1919/20, thus before the opening of an artificial inlet in 1922, and is due to increasing eutrophication. Furthermore, the sedimentary carbonate content can be used as a good indicator for past phytoplankton productivity in Rotsee.