Volcanic threat in developing countries of the Asia�CPacific region: probabilistic hazard assessment, population risks, and information gaps

The importance of disaster reduction has gained increased awareness within the international development community and thereby highlighted a need for a preliminary assessment of natural hazard risk in developing countries of the Asia?CPacific, including that for volcanic eruption. In this paper, we present a key component of such an assessment, which involved qualifying the frequency and potential consequences of large??Volcanic Explosivity Index of four or more??volcanic eruptions. The frequencies of large eruptions from volcanoes grouped by region were determined from frequency?Cmagnitude plots using data provided by the Smithsonian Institution??s Global Volcanism Program. However, calculated frequencies represent only minimum values due to an incomplete eruption record. Unfortunately, limited data precluded the calculation of eruption frequencies for the Solomon Islands, Fiji and Samoa. A first-order analysis of the populations potentially impacted by large volcanic eruptions suggest that (1) volcanic disasters affecting populations of >100,000 can be expected at least every decade in Indonesia and once every few decades in the Philippines and (2) a volcanic disaster impacting >1% of the population can be expected twice a century in Vanuatu, twice a millennium for Indonesia and the Philippines, and around every millennium in Papua New Guinea and Tonga.     

The interpretation of visible band imagery of turbid shallow seas in terms of the distribution of suspended particulates

Visible band imagery from the Nimbus 7 Coastal Zone Colour Scanner (CZCS) and other satellite scanners indicates the occurrence of well-defined and persistent patterns of fine sediment concentration in the Irish Sea. The principal features of these distributions are related to variations in the intensity of tidal stirring with sharp transitions in the sub-surface reflectance occurring at frontal boundaries where there are abrupt changes in the vertical mixing regime. Observations of the suspended sediment concentration, both direct and by optical beam transmittance meter, have been used to demonstrate the correspondence between seston variations and changes in sub-surface reflectance as observed by satellite scanners.Radiometric measurements of sub-surface reflectance R are used to investigate the dependence of R (550 nm) on the concentration of suspended particulates Σ. The slope of the Σ- R relation is found to increase with the concentration of organic seston in a systematic way, a trend which is also apparent in an independent data set from the mouth of the Rhoˆne in the Mediterranean.These results may provide the basis for improved quantitative determination of seston from remotely sensed data if the mean level of organic seston concentration is known, or can be estimated from the spectral ratios in the reflectance data.     

Seasonal Cycle of Vertical Structure and Deep Water Renewal in the Clyde Sea

Two strings of moored current meters deployed between March 1993 and May 1994, together with monthly CTD surveys, provide the first comprehensive set of observations over the seasonal cycle in the Clyde Sea. In the summer, a strong thermal stratification maintained a partial isolation of the deep waters. In winter, the stratification was weaker, and a 1 °C temperature inversion was persistent from November to the end of March. Rapid inflow of dense water from the North Channel of the Irish Sea served to re-establish the strong stratification in the spring. The mean rate of exchange was estimated from the salinity (practical salinity scale) and mass budgets to be 1·1×10⁴ m³ s⁻¹, indicating an average flushing time for the Clyde Sea of 3–4 months.Episodic increases in deep water salinity indicated that bottom water renewal occurred throughout the winter. Intense renewal events were observed in March 1993 and February 1994, when the North Channel density was near its seasonal maximum, and were coincident with periods of high wind stress. In the month prior to these rapid spring inflows, the basin bottom salinity reached its seasonal minimum, indicating that the effects of mixing dominated over renewal at this time. A marked inflow in the summer was inferred from the salinity budget, and observed as a salinity increase at a depth of 90 m. A 2-layer flow was observed in the Arran Deep basin throughout the year, the surface flow forming part of a clockwise circulation about Arran, with an opposing bottom layer circulation. This surface circulation prevents freshwater from entering the Kilbrannan Sound, leaving this area relatively susceptible to deep water mixing by the wind.At a station in the north of the basin, the internal tidal current was observed to have an amplitude of 2–3 cm s⁻¹, which is half the amplitude of the barotropic tide. The energy available to mix the water column mixing associated with the internal tide at this position is estimated to be 0·01 mWm⁻², which is 2 orders of magnitude less than wind mixing. The kinetic energy density in the Clyde Sea was found to be predominantly in low frequency oscillations (<1·0 cycles per day), the seasonal variation exhibiting some correlation with the wind.     

Analytical model for computing residence times near a pumping well

An analytical solution for calculating the residence time of fluid flowing toward a pumping well in an unconfined aquifer has been developed. The analytical solution was derived based on a radial, steady-state, Dupuit-Forchheimer flow model. The resulting integral expression involved computing the imaginary error function, for which a simple series expansion is proposed. The validity of the analytical expression is demonstrated by testing its results against numerical results for an example problem. The analytical solution compared favorably with the numerical approximation.     

Understanding and modelling spatial drain–aquifer interactions in a low‐lying coastal aquifer—the Thurne catchment,Norfolk, UK

Seawater intrusion into fresh groundwater formations generally results inadvertently from human activities, such as over‐abstraction from coastal aquifers. This article describes the data analysis to quantify drain–aquifer interactions in a low‐lying pump‐drained coastal aquifer, which is subject to saline intrusion due to widespread land drainage, and the resulting development and application of a numerical groundwater model to understand the spatial groundwater system behaviour (including groundwater salinity fluxes). Without measured flow data in this pump‐drained catchment, a novel groundwater head‐dependent approach to hydrograph separation is described. Time‐variant and time‐invariant MODFLOW analyses are utilised to examine the flow processes. A new approach to calculate drain coefficients, which represent the extensive network of drainage ditches in the regional model, using field information, is described; the sum of the drainage coefficients are close to the values independently estimated from the head‐dependent hydrograph separation. Results show that (1) the groundwater flows into the drainage systems are well reproduced using the new drain coefficients, (2) particle tracking of fresh and saline water can explain observed spatial salinity distribution within drainage networks and (3) the modelled flow of seawater across the coast is approximately 25% greater than that discharged by the pumps, demonstrating the need for drainage management to be aware of the slow response of groundwater systems to past drainage system changes. The article demonstrates that numerical groundwater modelling can produce the improved understanding needed to inform management decisions in such complex environments. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Lake catchment based studies of erosion and denudation in the merevale catchment,Warwickshire, U.K.

Sediment yields estimated from contemporary stream monitoring of suspended sediment in the Merevale forested catchment, North Warwickshire, were compared with the sediment yield record obtained from analysis of lake sediment in the downstream reservoir. Total sediment volume and mass for nine periods since 1861 were calculated by extrapolation of synchronous levels in 54 cores, identified from magnetic susceptibility and other magnetic measurements, and by using ²¹⁰Pb and ¹³⁷Cs analysis to provide an absolute sediment chronology. Sediment yield estimated from the two methods show comparable but low (50-200 kg ha^?1 yr^?1) levels of sediment loss. While suggesting that lake sediments can be a useful means for extending the period over which contemporary monitoring exists, the study stresses the need for detailed historical records of land use and climate against which long term sediment yield records can be evaluated.     

Aswan telemetered seismograph network

A telemetered network of 8 short-period seismograph stations was installed at Aswan Reservoir in July 1982 to monitor induced seismicity near the site of a magnitude 5 earthquake which occurred in November 1981. A continuous monitor of the seismicity is provided by pen and ink recording of 4 stations. An event detector is used to identify events of interest, for which all of the stations are recorded on magnetic tape. Approximate displacement magnifications are 40, 000 at 1 hz with a maximum of 500, 000 at 20 hz.     

Effect Of A Heat Island On The Meteorology Of A Complex Urban Airshed

A three-dimensional mesoscale model was used to study the effect of an urban heat island in a relatively complex situation. A heat emission inventory was carried out for an urban airshed thatincludes sources such as motor vehicles, waste heat from industries and electricity consumption. To demonstrate the relative significance of anthropogenic heat flux and variant surface characteristics, three model simulations were conducted. In the first simulation, anthropogenic heat flux was ignored and non-variant surface properties were considered for the entire modelling domain. In the second simulation, variant surface characteristics were considered. While in the third simulation, gridded anthropogenic heat flux and variant surface characteristic were utilised. From these experiments, it was inferred that an additional source of heat in urban areas can substantially affect the wind and temperature regime under light wind conditions. During the day, the anthropogenic heat flux has minimum effect on the urban temperature, however it magnifies the intensity of the convergence near the urban areas.     

Local‐scale adaptations: A modeled assessment of soil,landscape, microclimatic,and management factors in Norse home‐field productivities

Adaptation of farming practices to inherent site conditions was essential to the success of Norse colonization in pristine landscapes. A key factor in the initial success of colonization, or landnám, of Iceland was management of the area adjacent to the domestic dwelling, the home‐field, to provide fodder for over‐wintering livestock. In this paper we examine three settlement home‐fields in the Mývatn and Laxá valley area of northeast Iceland. Contemporary evidence reveals a distinct climatic toposequence together with differences in the nature of the inherent soils between sites. By considering the influence of these differences, microscale adaptations in early land management practices in the production of hay are sought within a tightly defined chronological context. Using an integrated agroecosystem modeling approach, the factors affecting long‐term sustainability of hay production in the Norse home‐field are examined. Results indicate that regional‐level climate differences will have an impact on production, especially pronounced cold periods. It is also clear that small‐scale climate factors, as well as inherent soil differences between sites influenced productivity for the Norse farmer. However, productivities overall are at subsistence level, emphasizing the need for optimized land management to sustain home‐field production. After examining different management scenarios, it is apparent that the effect of an increased rate of manuring will be most apparent during the first century of settlement; thereafter the effect is relatively diminished. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.