Hydraulic borehole characterization through the application of moment methods to fluid conductivity logs

In any type of groundwater transport problem (contaminant solutes, heat, etc.), knowledge of the location and properties of pathways of increased hydraulic conductivity is essential. However, answering such questions in strongly heterogeneous media, such as fractured rock, can be very difficult and budget-intensive with standard geophysical or hydrogeological field investigations. We present a new testing concept and analysis procedure based on a time sequence of wellbore electric conductivity logs, which provides the exact location and the outflow parameters (transmissivity, formation fluid conductivity) of flowing features (fractures, faults, layers) intercepted by the borehole.Previously the quantitative analysis of this time sequence of electrical conductivity logs was based on a code, called BORE, used to simulate borehole fluid conductivity profiles given these parameters. The present report describes a new direct (not iterative) method for analyzing a short time series of electric conductivity logs which is based on moment quantities of the individual outflow peaks, and applies it to synthetic as well as to field data. The results of the method are promising and are discussed in terms of the method's advantages and limitations. In particular it is shown that the method is capable of reproducing hydraulic properties derived from packer tests well within a factor of three, which is below the range of what is recognized as the accuracy of packer tests themselves. Furthermore the new method is much quicker than the previously used iterative fitting procedure and is even capable of handling transient fracture outflow conditions.     

Late quaternary chronology of the riverine plain of southeastern Australia

Studies of the Murray River have revealed that its ancestral river system is the result of three separate phases of river activity, each consisting of a degradational and aggradational sub‐phase. To illustrate the relations, certain sections of the rivers were mapped in detail revealing characteristic terrace levels for the various phases. The regional pattern shows that immediately upstream from the Cadell Fault, and for a distance of 100 miles (160 km.) downstream, tectonically induced topographical changes have separated the individual ancestral rivers representative of each phase. Elsewhere, the three rivers are superimposed and follow the same general course. This pattern of separation by diversion also applies to the present rivers so that, in the diverted sector of the river system, old floodplains occur which were deserted by the present river. Initial water logging and salting problems were restricted to these deserted floodplains where they occur in the Irrigation Districts. A relative chronology of Quaternary events has been drawn up.     

A simple model for potential dewfall in an arid region

It is not always easy to know, post-facto, whether both dewfall and fog may have occurred over a given evening period. Instrumentation limitations make it difficult to quantify dew deposition since they rely on artificial sensing surfaces that are either visually examined on a daily basis or recorded. In arid to Mediterranean regions, both dew and fog can play significant ecological roles as suppliers of moisture. Long-term observation records of dew and fog in such regions tend to be limited, however, due partly to a lack of interest and limited distribution of well-instrumented meteorological stations. Simple meteorological criteria are suggested here to calculate potential dewfall and to indicate whether fog was likely to have occurred over a given evening. A field campaign was carried out in the NW Negev desert, Israel, in September and October 1997, to collect meteorological data and carry out dewfall measurements.     

Ultraviolet absorption spectrum of trifluoro-bromo-methane,difluoro-dibromo-methane and difluoro-bromo-chloro-methane in the vapor phase

Ultraviolet absorption cross-sections of trifluoro-bromo-methane (CF₃Br-Halon 1301), difluoro-dibromo-methane (CF₂Br₂-Halon 1202) and of difluoro-bromo-chloro-methane (CF₂BrCl-Halon 1211) are measured in the wavelength interval 172–304 nm for temperatures ranging from 210 to 295 K with uncertainties of between 2 and 4%. They are compared with previous measurements available at room temperature. Temperature effects are discussed and parametrical formulae are proposed to compute the absorption cross-sections for wavelengths and temperatures useful in atmospheric modelling calculations. Photodissociation coefficients are presented and their temperature dependence is discussed.     

A method for climate and vegetation reconstruction through the inversion of a dynamic vegetation model

Climate reconstructions from data sensitive to past climates provide estimates of what these climates were like. Comparing these reconstructions with simulations from climate models allows to validate the models used for future climate prediction. It has been shown that for fossil pollen data, gaining estimates by inverting a vegetation model allows inclusion of past changes in carbon dioxide values. As a new generation of dynamic vegetation model is available we have developed an inversion method for one model, LPJ-GUESS. When this novel method is used with high-resolution sediment it allows us to bypass the classic assumptions of (1) climate and pollen independence between samples and (2) equilibrium between the vegetation, represented as pollen, and climate. Our dynamic inversion method is based on a statistical model to describe the links among climate, simulated vegetation and pollen samples. The inversion is realised thanks to a particle filter algorithm. We perform a validation on 30 modern European sites and then apply the method to the sediment core of Meerfelder Maar (Germany), which covers the Holocene at a temporal resolution of approximately one sample per 30 years. We demonstrate that reconstructed temperatures are constrained. The reconstructed precipitation is less well constrained, due to the dimension considered (one precipitation by season), and the low sensitivity of LPJ-GUESS to precipitation changes.     

Biogenic emissions from Pinus halepensis: a typical species of the Mediterranean area

Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) emissions by vegetation present in the Mediterranean area are not well known. They may contribute with anthropogenic VOC emissions to the tropospheric ozone formation that reaches important level in the European Mediterranean region. The present work, carried out as part of the European ESCOMPTE project «fiEld experimentS to COnstrain Models of atmospheric Pollution and Transport of Emissions», adds a new contribution to the inventory of the main natural hydrocarbons sources likely to participate in the ozone production. The corresponding measurement campaign was conducted in La Barben, a site close to Marseilles (France), with the aim to quantify the terpenic emission pattern and the behaviour of Pinus halepensis, an important Mediterranean species slightly studied.The determination of biogenic emissions from P. halepensis was done by the enclosure of an intact branch in a Teflon cuvette. Main emitted monoterpenes were β trans-ocimene and linalool. The total monoterpenic emission rates thus recorded were found to reach maximum values around 30 μg g_{dry weight}⁻¹ h⁻¹. The normalized emission rates calculated at 30 °C and 1000 μmol m⁻² s⁻¹ with Guenther's algorithm was 14.76, 8.65 and 4.05 μg g_{dry weight}⁻¹ h⁻¹, respectively, for the total monoterpenes, β trans-ocimene and linalool.     

Simulating Climate over Western North America Using Stochastic Weather Generators

The climatologies of daily precipitation and of maximum and minimum temperatures over western North America are simulated using stochastic weather generators. Two types of generator, differentiated only by their method of modeling precipitation occurrence, are investigated. A second-order Markov model, in which the probability of the occurrence of precipitation is modeled as contingent upon its occurrence on the previous two days, is compared with a spell-length model, in which mass functions of wet- and dry-spell lengths are modeled. Both models are able to reproduce the observed annual and monthly climatology in the region to a high degree of accuracy. However, there is considerable over-dispersion in annual precipitation, resulting primarily from an underestimation in the interannual variability of precipitation intensity. The interannual variability of temperatures is similarly underestimated, and is most severe for minimum temperatures. There is a severe problem in estimating minimum temperature extremes, which can be attributed to the negatively skewed distribution of daily minimum temperatures. Non-normality in the distribution of daily temperatures is shown to be a problem in simulating extreme temperature maxima as well as of minima. It is suggested that the normal distribution used in the generation of daily temperatures in the widely used Richardson (1981) generator, and its derivations, be supplanted by a more appropriate distribution that permits skewness in either direction.     

Urban scale modelling: The Sydney hailstorm of 14 April 1999

Summary The aim of this study is to point to the very large improvements that are taking place in a range of modelling applications in the urban areas. The particular phenomenon chosen in this study is a supercell, but it could well have been any other aspect of urban modelling. The Sydney hailstorm of 14 April 1999 was a long-lived, high precipitation supercell that produced a massive damage bill of over 2 billion Australian dollars from its hail swath. The Sydney hailstorm was poorly forecast for a number of reasons including: the severe weather season had officially ended so there were no specialist staff on duty when the hailstorm struck Sydney; the storm proved very difficult to predict and it was expected to continue heading out to sea; and the forecast guidance from all available operational numerical models was inadequate at the resolution required for a supercell simulation. Here, our interest is on the last of the problems, namely, the quality of the operational numerical model guidance, especially given the impact it had on a densely populated urban region.In this study, we compare the numerical guidance available at the time with current modeling capability which, although in research mode at present, will soon be available in real-time mode. The operational models were hydrostatic models run at horizontal resolutions of 25km at best, compared with 1km horizontal resolution for the non-hydrostatic research model. The research model also had a high-order differencing scheme and a sophisticated six phase cloud physics scheme compared with the much simpler parameterized convection in the operational models. The operational model produced very little convective precipitation and it was displaced well to the north of Sydney. The research model generated a supercell with a track and a hail size distribution that was encouragingly close to the observed.