Holocene climate variability in Sicily from a discontinuous stalagmite record and the Mesolithic to Neolithic transition

Fabric and stable isotopic composition of a Holocene stalagmite (CR1) from a cave in northern Sicily record changes in paleorainfall in the early Holocene. High δ¹³C stable isotope values in the calcite deposited from ca. 8500 to ca. 7500 yr ago are interpreted as reflecting periods of high rainfall. The wet phase was interrupted by two periods of multi-century duration characterized by relatively cool and dry winters centered at ca. 8200 and ca. 7500 yr ago, highlighted by low δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O values. A high variability of δ¹³C values is recorded from ca. 7500 to ca. 6500 yr ago and indicates that the transition from a pluvial early Holocene to the present-day climate conditions was punctuated by decadal-scale periods of relatively dry winters. In northern Sicily, the traditional elements of the Neolithic appear at ca. 7700 yr ago. It is possible that changes in rainfall influenced the passage from hunter-gathering to farming and sheep-herding economies.     

Probable Neolithic footprints preserved in inter-tidal peat at Kenfig, South Wales (UK)

Holocene footprints have been reported from several locations around the UK coast preserved within inter-tidal sediments. These sediments are normally fine-grained silts, sands and clays. Here we report potential human footprints preserved in the lower of two inter-tidal peat units exposed on the foreshore at Kenfig in South Wales. The lower peat layer pre-dates 3810 ± 40 BP and its maximum age is constrained by two dates, one of 4930 ± 50 BP and another of 5110 ± 50 BP. The prints may have formed at any point within this time interval. Both peat units formed in a salt marsh, or fen environment, as indicated by the analysis of both diatoms and pollen and have been tentatively assigned to the middle Wentlooge Formation within the Holocene lithostratigraphy established for the Severn Estuary Holocene sequence. The footprints were digitised using an optical laser scanner and are compared to other Holocene human footprints exposed on the Sefton Coast in North West England. In comparison the Kenfig prints have poor anatomical form which may be the result of both the substrate and post-depositional modification. The paper demonstrates the value of using optical laser scanning in the data capture and analysis of transitory archaeological and geological trace evidence.     

Epikarst hydrology and implications for stalagmite capture of climate changes at Grotta di Ernesto (NE Italy): results from long‐term monitoring

Grotta di Ernesto is a cave site well suited for palaeoclimate studies because it contains annually laminated stalagmites and was monitored from 1995 to the end of 2008 for microclimate, hydrology and hydrochemistry. Long‐term monitoring highlighted that cave drips show three different hydrological responses to rainfall and infiltration: (1) fast seasonal drips in the upper part of the cave, which are mostly fed by fractures, (2) slow seasonal drips, located at mid‐depth in the cave characterized by mixed feeding and (3) slow drips, mostly located in the deeper gallery, which are fed by seepage flow from bulk porosity with a minor fracture‐fed component. The slow drips display daily cycles during spring thaw. Monitoring also indicated that drip waters are only slightly modified by degassing within the soil zone and aquifer and by prior calcite precipitation. Hydrochemical studies show a clear seasonality in calcite saturation index, which results in most cave calcite precipitation occurring during late autumn and winter with similar amounts of precipitated calcite on most stalagmites, regardless of drip rate (discharge) differences. Drip rate, and drip rate variability, therefore, has a minor role in modulating the amount of annual calcite formation. In contrast, drip rate, when associated with moderate reduction in calcite saturation index, clearly influences stalagmite morphology. Increasing drip rate yields a passage from candle‐, to cone‐ to dome‐shaped stalagmites. Very high drip rates feed speleothems with flowstone morphology. In summary, monitoring provides information about the karst aquifer and how hydrology influences those physical and chemical characteristics of speleothems which are commonly used as climate proxies. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evolution of anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of air pollutants at global and regional scales during the 1980�C2010 period

Several different inventories of global and regional anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions are assessed for the 1980?C2010 period. The species considered in this study are carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide and black carbon. The inventories considered include the ACCMIP historical emissions developed in support of the simulations for the IPCC AR5 assessment. Emissions for 2005 and 2010 from the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are also included. Large discrepancies between the global and regional emissions are identified, which shows that there is still no consensus on the best estimates for surface emissions of atmospheric compounds. At the global scale, anthropogenic emissions of CO, NO_x and SO₂ show the best agreement for most years, although agreement does not necessarily mean that uncertainty is low. The agreement is low for BC emissions, particularly in the period prior to 2000. The best consensus is for NO_x emissions for all periods and all regions, except for China, where emissions in 1980 and 1990 need to be better defined. Emissions of CO need better quantification in the USA and India for all periods; in Central Europe, the evolution of emissions during the past two decades needs to be better determined. The agreement between the different SO₂ emissions datasets is rather good for the USA, but better quantification is needed elsewhere, particularly for Central Europe, India and China. The comparisons performed in this study show that the use of RCP8.5 for the extension of the ACCMIP inventory beyond 2000 is reasonable, until more global or regional estimates become available. Concerning biomass burning emissions, most inventories agree within 50?C80%, depending on the year and season. The large differences between biomass burning inventories are due to differences in the estimates of burned areas from the different available products, as well as in the amount of biomass burned.     

1999年欧洲圣诞节风暴数值模拟分析

对1999年圣诞期间发生在欧洲中西部的圣诞节风暴进行了分析,认为4个主要的低气压系统中的第二个给法国北部带来了强风暴雨,巴黎的Orly机场阵风速度〉47m／s;第四个低压系统沿法国西海岸产生相似的恶劣天气,并在西班牙的北部海岸及地中海沿岸国家造成了毁灭性的破坏。在法国中部风暴最剧烈的时候,最大阵风〉41m／s;在法国和德国之间的区域,达55m／s。圣诞节风暴造成欧洲国家大约140人死亡,其他损失包括树木、街道和房屋被毁,电力系统和电话中断时间长达数天,受影响的人数大约为1000万,财产损失大约为80亿美元。由于风暴的极端强度和快速发展速度,欧洲大多数国家的数值预报中心没有对这次剧烈天气提供足够的预警。为此,利用中尺度数值预报系统（RAMS）模拟圣诞节风暴,并与ECMWF分析资料以及实况观测资料进行了对比分析。结果表明,RAMS模式能够准确模拟风暴的主要特性、低气压的演变和位置移动、发展的关键时间点、风暴演化期间的平均风场;模拟的平均风场和气象观测网的观测结果相一致;模拟的风暴移动时间和主要新闻媒体的报道相吻合;模式计算的一些特定地区平均风速的时间趋势显示,在阿尔卑斯山脉地区,无论是上风区还是下风区,风暴的时间都被准确地预测;模拟的第一次风暴最低气压值较实际值偏低。     

Can agriculture support climate change adaptation, greenhouse gas mitigation and rural livelihoods? insights from Kenya

Changes in the agriculture sector are essential to mitigate and adapt to climate change, meet growing food demands, and improve the livelihoods of poor smallholder producers. What agricultural strategies are needed to meet these challenges? To what extent are there synergies among these strategies? This paper examines these issues for smallholder producers in Kenya across several agroecological zones. Several practices emerge as triple wins, supporting climate adaptation, greenhouse gas mitigation, and profitability goals. In particular, integrated soil fertility management and improved livestock feeding are shown to provide multiple benefits across all agroecological zones examined. Triple wins of other agricultural practices are limited to specific agroecological zones. Irrigation and soil and water conservation, for example, are essential for adaptation, mitigation, and profitability in arid areas. The results suggest that agricultural investments targeted toward these triple-win strategies will have the greatest payoff in terms of increased resilience of farm and pastoralist households and global climate change mitigation. To reap the benefits of triple-win strategies will require that policymakers, researchers, and practitioners move away from isolated approaches focused on either adaptation or mitigation or rural income generation toward a more holistic assessment of joint strategies as well as their tradeoffs and synergies.     

Turbulence Closures In Neutral Boundary Layer Over Complex Terrain

In this work, three turbulence closure models, Mellor andYamada level 2.5, E - l and E - implemented in a circulation model, are compared in neutral condition over complex terrain. They are firstly applied to a one-dimensional case on flat terrain and then to a schematic two-dimensional valley. The simulation results, in terms of wind field and turbulent kinetic energy, are tested against measurements from a wind-tunnel experiment. The empirical constants defining the characteristic length scales of the closures are modified based on turbulence parameters estimated in the experiment. The formulation of the diffusion coefficients is analysed to explain the differences among the various closures in the simulation results. Regarding the mean flow, both on flat and complex terrain, all the closures yield satisfactory results. Concerning the turbulent kinetic energy, the best results are obtained by E - l and E - closures.     

On magma fragmentation by conduit shear stress: Evidence from the Kos Plateau Tuff,Aegean Volcanic Arc

Large silicic explosive eruptions are the most catastrophic volcanic events. Yet, the intratelluric mechanisms underlying are not fully understood. Here we report a field and laboratory study of the Kos Plateau Tuff (KPT, 161 ka, Aegean Volcanic Arc), which provides an excellent geological example of conduit processes that control magma vesiculation and fragmentation during intermediate- to large-scale caldera-forming eruptions. A prominent feature of the KPT is the occurrence of quite unusual platy-shaped tube pumice clasts in pyroclastic fall and current deposits from the early eruption phases preceding caldera collapse. On macroscopic and SEM observations, flat clast faces are elongated parallel to tube vesicles, while transverse surfaces often occur at ~ 45° to vesicle elongation. This peculiar pumice texture provides evidence of high shear stresses related to strong velocity gradients normal to conduit walls, which induced vesiculation and fragmentation of the ascending magma. Either an increasing mass discharge rate without adequate enlargement of a narrow central feeder conduit or a developing fissure-like feeder system related to incipient caldera collapse provided suitable conditions for the generation of plate tube pumice within magma volumes under high shear during the pre-climactic KPT eruption phases. This mechanism implies that the closer to the conduit walls (where the stronger are the velocity gradients) the larger was the proportion of plate vs. conventional (lensoid) juvenile fragments in the ascending gas–pyroclast mixture. Consequently, plate pumice clasts were mainly entrained in the outer portions of the jet and convecting regions of a sustained, Plinian-type, eruption column, as well as in occasional lateral blast currents generated at the vent. As a whole, plate pumice clasts in the peripheral portions of the column were transported at lower altitudes and deposited by fallout or partial collapse closer to the vent relative to lensoid ones that dominated in the inner column portions. The plate tube pumice proportion decreased abruptly up to disappearance during the emplacement of the main pyroclastic currents and lithic-rich breccias related to extensive caldera collapse at the eruption climax, as a consequence of an overall widening of the magma feeder system through the opening of multiple conduits and eruptive vents, along with fissure erosion, concomitant to the disruption of the collapsing block.     

Nearshore bar migration and sediment-induced buoyancy effects

A 1-D General Ocean Turbulence Model that includes the effects of sediment-induced stratification is shown to simulate the observed onshore and offshore migration of a nearshore sandbar. The only two free parameters of the model, the bed reference concentration and the sediment diffusivity, are taken from the literature, rather than tuned to the data used here. The model results suggest that predictions of onshore bar migration, in which wave-induced sediment transport confined to within a few centimeters of the bottom dominates, are not greatly affected by accounting for buoyancy effects. The model results also suggest that both mean flows and waves transport sediment during offshore bar migration, with different components of transport dominating at different cross-shore locations across the bar-trough bathymetry. Neglecting the effects of sediment-induced stratification results in higher model skill during the largest waves, likely because the excess turbulence production simulated by the non-stratified model is counterbalanced by neglected breaking-wave-generated turbulence. Considering both onshore and offshore migration, the model that includes sediment-induced stratification has higher skill than the model without stratification.