Stochastic modelling of soil moisture dynamics in a grassland of Qilian Mountain at point scale

Stochastic modeling of soil moisture dynamics is crucial to the quantitative understanding of plant responses to water stresses,hydrological control of nutrient cycling processes,water competition among plants,and some other ecological dynamics,and thus has become a hotspot in ecohydrology at present.In this paper,we based on the continuously monitored data of soil moisture during 2002―2005 and daily precipitation date of 1992―2006,and tried to make a probabilistic analysis of soil moisture dynamics at point scale in a grassland of Qilian Mountain by integrating the stochastic model improved by Laio and the Monte Carlo method.The results show that the inter-annual variations for the soil moisture patterns at different depths are very significant,and that the coefficient of variance(CV) of surface soil moisture(20 cm) is almost continually kept at about 0.23 whether in the rich or poor rainy years.Interestingly,it has been found that the maximal CV of soil moisture has not always appeared at the surface layer.Comparison of the analytically derived soil moisture probability density function(PDF) with the statistical distribution of the observed soil moisture data suggests that the stochastic model can reasonably describe and predict the soil moisture dynamics of the grassland in Qilian Mountain at point scale.By extracting the statistical information of the historical precipitation data in 1994―2006,and inputting them into the stochastic model,we analytically derived the long-term soil moisture PDF without considering the inter-annual climate fluctuations,and then numerically derived the one when considering the inter-annual fluctuation effects in combination with a Monte-Carlo procedure.It was found that,though the peak position of the probability density distribution significantly moved towards drought when considering the disturbance forces,and its width was narrowed,accordingly its peak value was increased,no significant bimodality was observed in the soil moisture dynamics under the given intensity of random fluctuation disturbance.     

用电测深法在水压致裂实验中确定岩石破裂方向的实验研究

1.测点布设及观测方法实验场地位于福建省南靖县汤坑盆地中央。盆地内分布有F_1、F_2、F_3和F_44组断裂,其中F_1为张性兼压扭性断裂,F_2为扭性断裂,F_3为张扭性断裂,F_4为压扭性断裂(图1)。     

洞庭湖区域黑线姬鼠（Apodemus agrarius）种群迁入湖滩后的繁殖特征

黑线姬鼠(Apodemus agrarius)是广泛分布于我国的主要农田害鼠之一,2003年三峡工程开始蓄水后洞庭湖湖滩鼠类群落结构发生了演变,黑线姬鼠已大量侵入湖滩,且逐步成为湖滩生境鼠类群落的优势鼠种。动物在新生境中的繁殖状况是了解其对环境适应的关键指标。为掌握黑线姬鼠种群侵入湖滩生境后的适应情况,为其种群动态的预测预报提供科学依据,本文对2003—2020年洞庭湖湖滩和农田生境中捕获的黑线姬鼠繁殖状况进行比较分析,并结合季节动态和生境差异等因子分析了该鼠在繁殖方面对湖滩生境的适应。结果表明:(1)湖滩生境中黑线姬鼠平均繁殖指数(0.71±0.27)低于农田生境(1.21±0.47),在2016—2020年湖滩上黑线姬鼠的繁殖指数为0.99,略高于农田的0.96;(2)湖滩生境较农田生境中的孕鼠在繁殖中偏向有更多的胎仔数,有6只以上胎仔数的孕鼠占比(65.59%)高于农田生境(49.10%);(3)湖滩生境中发现有幼年组的黑线姬鼠参与繁殖,其繁殖指数、参产率、怀孕率及雄鼠的睾丸下降率随年龄递增;(4)春季和秋季是湖滩生境中黑线姬鼠的主要繁殖季节,其繁殖指数、参产率、怀孕率都显著高于...     

A recursive decomposition algorithm for network seismic reliability evaluation

A new probabilistic analytical approach to evaluate seismic system reliability of large lifeline systems is presented in this paper. The algorithm takes the shortest path from the source to the terminal of a node weight or edge weight network as decomposition policy, using the Boolean laws of set operation and probabilistic operation principal, a recursive decomposition process then could be constructed. For a general weight network, the modified Torrieri method (NTR/T method) is introduced to combine with the suggested algorithm. Therefore, the recursive decomposition algorithm may be applied to evaluate the seismic reliability of general lifeline systems. A series of case studies, including a practical district electric power network system and a large urban water supply system, show that the suggested algorithm supplies a useful probabilistic analysis means for the seismic reliability evaluation of large lifeline systems. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

漾濞地震震源位置分析

采用一致的地震震相和台网布局，应用昆明数字地震台网资料，对2002年月1月4日－1月7日的漾濞地震及序列作进一步核定，得出了更精确的地震震源位置，并作出三维空间图。     

2021年、2022年中国大陆地震灾害损失述评

基于2021年、2022年中国5.0级及以上地震目录,结合应急管理部、有关省(自治区、直辖市)地震局的地震灾害评估报告和相关资料,对中国大陆地震灾害情况、主要地震灾害事件及其特点进行了总结和分析。此外,按省份总结了各省地震灾害事件及地震灾害特点。其中,云南省中强震多、强震少,震区房屋抗震能力较高,人员伤亡较小; 四川省中强震少、强震多,次生灾害较为发育,造成严重人员伤亡; 青海省虽然震级高、破坏性强、致灾范围广,但震区地广人稀,房屋抗震设防等级较高,人员伤亡少。最后,结合历史震害统计数据,分析对比近2年中国大陆地震灾害致灾特点。     

Evolution of permafrost in China during the last 20 ka

The formation and evolution of permafrost in China during the last 20 ka were reconstructed on the basis of large amount of paleo-permafrost remains and paleo-periglacial evidence, as well as paleo-glacial landforms, paleo-flora and paleofauna records. The results indicate that, during the local Last Glacial Maximum(LLGM) or local Last Permafrost Maximum(LLPMax), the extent of permafrost of China reached 5.3×106-5.4×106 km2, or thrice that of today, but permafrost shrank to only0.80×106-0.85×106 km2, or 50% that of present, during the local Holocene Megathermal Period(LHMP), or the local Last Permafrost Minimum(LLPMin). On the basis of the dating of periglacial remains and their distributive features, the extent of permafrost in China was delineated for the two periods of LLGM(LLPMax) and LHMP(LLPMin), and the evolution of permafrost in China was divided into seven periods as follows:(1) LLGM in Late Pleistocene(ca. 20000 to 13000-10800 a BP)with extensive evidence for the presence of intensive ice-wedge expansion for outlining its LLPMax extent;(2) A period of dramatically changing climate during the early Holocene(10800 to 8500-7000 a BP) when permafrost remained relatively stable but with a general trend of shrinking areal extent;(3) The LHMP in the Mid-Holocene(8500-7000 to 4000-3000 a BP)when permafrost degraded intensively and extensively, and shrank to the LLPMin;(4) Neoglaciation during the late Holocene(4000-3000 to 1000 a BP, when permafrost again expanded;(5) Medieval Warming Period(MWP) in the late Holocene(1000-500 a BP) when permafrost was in a relative decline;(6) Little Ice Age(LIA) in the late Holocene(500-100 a BP), when permafrost relatively expanded, and;(7) Recent warming(during the 20 th century), when permafrost continuously degraded and still is degrading. The paleo-climate, geography and paleopermafrost extents and other features were reconstructed for each of these seven periods.     

2017年3月27日漾濞5.1级地震前后气枪震源观测走时数据的变化

以2017年3月27日漾濞5.1级地震为例,根据区域特性和信噪比要求,选取数据较为完整的6个台站记录的2017年1月1日～6月6日期间的宾川地震信号发射台气枪震源波形资料,采用互相关检测技术提取6个台站各自稳定震相的走时数据,并对漾濞5.1级地震前后走时数据的变化情况进行分析。结果表明,漾濞5.1级地震前后6个台站各自稳定震相存在较为明显的走时变化,且短期内走时变化具有较好的同步性,相关台站异常幅度大小和异常出现时间存在细小差异。地震发生前,6个台站走时低值异常过程明显,以YUL台最为显著。地震发生前后走时变化形态特征为双“V”型,漾濞5.1级地震发生在第1个“V”型末端。地震发生后,不同方位相关台站受地震的影响程度不同,走时波动大小存在差异。     

青海湖人湖沙质物的计算与水下沙堤的形成

青海湖流域沙漠以环湖分布为特点,又以ENE为集中。这一状态使多方向的风沙流入湖,而实际上入湖沙量是以W、N、E三个方向的流沙为主。根据入湖风沙公式计算,入湖风沙量为887.08×10~4t/a。并推算出河流泥沙入湖为35.77×10~4t/a,空中降尘为30.36×10~4t/a。入湖后的沙质物在湖流、波浪的作用下,由西向东运移,堆积成水下沙堤,逐渐增高加宽露出水面,分隔成子湖。同时在干燥的气候作用下,导致湖面收缩,生态环境恶化。     

福建省龙海—漳浦沿海第四纪地壳运动特征与地震

本文论述了福建龙海—漳浦沿海地区的第四纪地层及沉积结构、构造地貌、第四纪地壳运动特征及其与地震活动的关系。