Short-Range Prediction Experiments with Operational Data Assimilation System for the Kuroshio South of Japan

The short-range (one month) variability of the Kuroshio path was predicted in 84 experiments (90-day predictions) using a model in an operational data assimilation system based on data from 1993 to 1999. The predictions started from an initial condition or members of a set of initial conditions, obtained in a reanalysis experiment. The predictions represent the transition from straight to meander of the Kuroshio path, and the results have been analyzed according to previously proposed mechanisms of the transition with eddy propagation and interaction acting as a trigger of the meander and self-sustained oscillation. The reanalysis shows that the meander evolves due to eddy activity. Simulation (no assimilation) shows no meander state, even with the same atmospheric forcing as the prediction. It is suggested therefore that the initial condition contains information on the meander and the system can represent the evolution. Mean (standard deviation) values of the axis error for all 84 cases are 13, 17, and 20 (10, 10, and 12) km, in 138.5°E, in the 30-, 60-, and 90-day predictions respectively. The observed mean deviation from seasonal variation is 30 km. The predictive limit of the system is thus about 80 days. The time scale of the limit depends on which stage in the transition is adopted as the initial condition. The gradual decrease of the amplitude in a stage from meander to straight paths is also predicted. The predictive limit is about 20 days, which is shorter than the prediction of the opposite transition. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Preferential dissolution of SiO<Subscript>2</Subscript> from enstatite to H<Subscript>2</Subscript> fluid under high pressure and temperature

Stability and phase relations of coexisting enstatite and H₂ fluid were investigated in the pressure and temperature regions of 3.1–13.9 GPa and 1500–2000 K using laser-heated diamond-anvil cells. XRD measurements showed decomposition of enstatite upon heating to form forsterite, periclase, and coesite/stishovite. In the recovered samples, SiO₂ grains were found at the margin of the heating hot spot, suggesting that the SiO₂ component dissolved in the H₂ fluid during heating, then precipitated when its solubility decreased with decreasing temperature. Raman and infrared spectra of the coexisting fluid phase revealed that SiH₄ and H₂O molecules formed through the reaction between dissolved SiO₂ and H₂. In contrast, forsterite and periclase crystals were found within the hot spot, which were assumed to have replaced the initial orthoenstatite crystals without dissolution. Preferential dissolution of SiO₂ components of enstatite in H₂ fluid, as well as that observed in the forsterite H₂ system and the quartz H₂ system, implies that H₂-rich fluid enhances Mg/Si fractionation between the fluid and solid phases of mantle minerals.     

Pressure responses of portlandite and H–D isotope effects on pressure-induced phase transitions

The pressure responses of portlandite and the isotope effect on the phase transition were investigated at room temperature from single-crystal Raman and IR spectra and from powder X-ray diffraction using diamond anvil cells under quasi-hydrostatic conditions in a helium pressure-transmitting medium. Phase transformation and subsequent peak broadening (partial amorphization) observed from the Raman and IR spectra of Ca(OH)₂ occurred at lower pressures than those of Ca(OD)₂. In contrast, no isotope effect was found on the volume and axial compressions observed from powder X-ray diffraction patterns. X-ray diffraction lines attributable to the high-pressure phase remained up to 28.5 GPa, suggesting no total amorphization in a helium pressure medium within the examined pressure region. These results suggest that the H–D isotope effect is engendered in the local environment surrounding H(D) atoms. Moreover, the ratio of sample-to-methanol–ethanol pressure medium (i.e., packing density) in the sample chamber had a significant effect on the increase in the half widths of the diffraction lines, even at pressures below the hydrostatic limit of the pressure medium.     

Analysis of narrow spikes in two cosmic gamma-ray bursts

An analysis has been made of the narrow intensity spikes occurring in two cosmic gammaray bursts which were observed with a fast time resolution germanium spectrometer on board the low altitude polar orbiting satellite 1972-076B (Imhofet al., 1974a, 1975; Nakanoet al., 1974a). The bursts on 18 December, 1972 and 21 July, 1973, were also recorded on the Vela satellite system. The durations of three spikes were observed to be 0.06 s with the limits being 0.03 to 0.10 s. Four other narrow spikes were measured to have time width limits between 0.001 and 0.10 s. An additional eight spikes had widths less than 0.9 s. During the spikes, the gamma-ray intensities increased by factors of 2 to 10, with a median value of 3. These and other characteristics of the fast time structure are presented.Paper presented at the COSPAR Symposium on Fast Transients in X- and Gamma-Rays, held at Varna, Bulgaria, 29–31 May, 1975.     

Accuracy of formation factors for three-dimensional pore-scale images of geo-materials estimated by renormalization technique

The formation factor, the dimensionless electric resistivity of porous rock/sediment saturated with conductive fluid, is an important quantity in geophysical exploration for petroleum reservoirs and groundwater aquifers. The renormalization technique is a promising approximation method for the quick estimation of the formation factors from large three-dimensional images of porous geo-materials obtained by X-ray microtomography. In the present study, we applied the renormalization technique to various pore-scale image sets of real geo-materials (sandstones, pumice, lava, and sandy sediments). The purpose is to explore the factors controlling the estimation accuracy of the formation factor. The results revealed that the accuracy increases with increasing (i) porosity, (ii) degree of the pore elongation along the direction of the applied electric field, and (iii) size of the initial subsystem with which the renormalization step starts and with decreasing (iv) pore or grain size. Most importantly, a high degree of elongation of the pore structure along the applied field ensures good accuracy even if the porosity is low, the initial subsystem is small, and the pore or grain size is large.     

Seismic activity beneath the Nankai trough revealed by DONET ocean-bottom observations

We conducted a detailed investigation of seismic activity from January 2011 to February 2013 along the Nankai trough off the Kii Peninsula, central Japan, by using data obtained from the DONET ocean-bottom observation network. The hypocenters are mostly within the subducting Philippine Sea (PHS) plate, although a few are along the plate boundary or in the sedimentary wedge below the Kumano forearc basin. The seismic activity can be separated into events above and below 20 km depth, which corresponds approximately to the Moho. The hypocenter distributions are distinctly different for these groups. The seismic activity in the oceanic crust can be further separated into three clusters. Most of the seismic activity recorded in our data represents aftershocks of the 2004 off the Kii Peninsula earthquakes (M _JMA = 7.1, 7.4, and 6.5), which occurred in the PHS plate. The hypocenter distribution in the oceanic crust correlates well with the location of the Paleo-Zenisu ridge, which is formed by a chain of seamounts that is subducting beneath the forearc basin. The hypocenters in the uppermost mantle are aligned on a plane dipping to the southeast, consistent with the existence of a thrust fault cutting through the lithosphere of the oceanic plate. The focal mechanisms of the earthquakes show that the axis of compressive stress in the PHS plate is oriented N–S, almost perpendicular to the direction of plate convergence, indicating a complex tectonic regime in this region. These results suggest that intraplate shortening may be occurring in the subducting oceanic plate.     

Formation mechanism of the Weddell Sea Polynya and the impact on the global abyssal ocean

An experiment using a global ocean–ice model with an interannual forcing data set was conducted to understand the variability in the Southern Ocean. A winter-persisting polynya in the Weddell Sea (the Weddell Polynya, WP) was simulated. The process of WP breaking out after no-WP years was explored using the successive WPs found in the late 1950s. The results suggested that the anomalously warm deep water, saline surface layer, and a cyclonic wind stress over the Maud polynya region in early winter are essential for the surface layer to be dense enough to trigger deep convections which maintain a winter-persisting polynya; also, the reanalyzed surface air temperature (SAT) over the observed polynya region is too high for an ocean–ice model’s bulk formula to yield sufficient upward heat fluxes to induce WP formation. Therefore the Weddell Polynya, a series of WPs observed from satellite in the mid-1970s, is reproduced by replacing the SAT with a climatological one. Subsequent to the successive WP events, density anomalies excited in the Weddell Sea propagate northward in the Atlantic deep basins. The Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) is enhanced through the increased meridional density gradient. The enhanced ACC and its meandering over the abyssal ridges excite buoyancy anomalies near the bottom at the southwestern end of the South Pacific basin. The buoyancy signals propagate northward and eventually arrive in the northern North Pacific.     

Three‐dimensional structures and elemental distributions of Stardust impact tracks using synchrotron microtomography and X‐ray fluorescence analysis

Abstract— Three‐dimensional structures and elemental abundances of four impact tracks in silica aerogel keystones of Stardust samples from comet 81P/Wild 2 (bulbous track 67 and carrot‐type tracks 46, 47, and 68) were examined non‐destructively by synchrotron radiation‐based microtomography and X‐ray fluorescence analysis. Track features, such as lengths, volumes and width as a function of track depth, were obtained quantitatively by tomography. A bulbous portion was present near the track entrance even in carrot‐type tracks. Each impact of a cometary dust particle results in the particle disaggregated into small pieces that were widely distributed on the track walls as well as at its terminal. Fe, S, Ca, Ni, and eight minor elements are concentrated in the bulbous portion of track 68 as well as in terminal grains. It was confirmed that bulbous portions and thin tracks were formed by disaggregation of very fine fragile materials and relatively coarse crystalline particles, respectively. The almost constant ratio of whole Fe mass to track volume indicates that the track volume is almost proportional to the impact kinetic energy. The size of the original impactor was estimated from the absolute Fe mass by assuming its Fe content (CI) and bulk density. Relations between the track sizes normalized by the impactor size and impact conditions are roughly consistent with those of previous hypervelocity impact experiments.     

The making and breaking of supercontinents: Some speculations based on superplumes, super downwelling and the role of tectosphere

The mechanisms of formation and disruption of supercontinents have been topics of debate. Based on the Y-shaped topology, we identify two major types of subduction zones on the globe: the Circum-Pacific subduction zone and the Tethyan subduction zone. We propose that the process of formation of supercontinents is controlled by super downwelling that develops through double-sided subduction zones as seen in the present day western Pacific, and also as endorsed by both geologic history and P-wave whole mantle tomography. The super-downwelling swallows all material like a black hole in the outer space, pulling together continents into a tight assembly. The fate of supercontinents is dictated by superplumes (super-upwelling) which break apart the continental assemblies. We evaluate the configuration of major supercontinents through Earth history and propose the tectonic framework leading to the future supercontinent Amasia 250 million years from present, with the present day Western Pacific region as its frontier. We propose that the tectosphere which functions as the buoyant keel of continental crust plays a crucial role in the supercontinental cycle, including continental fragmentation, dispersion and amalgamation. The continental crust is generally very thin, only about one tenth of the thickness of the tectosphere. If the rigidity and buoyancy is derived from the tectosphere, with the granitic upper crust playing only a negligible role, then supercontinent cycle may reflect the dispersion and amalgamation of the tectosphere. Therefore, supercontinent cycle may correspond to super-tectosphere cycle.