东亚夏季风的年际变化及其对环流和降水的影响

Using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis geopotential height (GHT) and wind at 850 hPa, GHT at 500 hPa, precipitation rate, sea level pressure (SLP) and precipitation observations from more than 600 stations nationwide in June–August from 1951 to 2006, and focusing on the East Asia-West Pacific region (10°–80°N, 70°–180°E), interannual variation of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and its correlations with general circulation and precipitation patterns are studied by using statistical diagnostic methods such as 9-point high pass filtering, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, composite analysis and other statistical diagnosis, etc. It is concluded as follows: (1) EOF analysis of SLP in the East Asia-West Pacific region shows the existence of the zonal dipole oscillation mode (APD) between the Mongolia depression and the West Pacific high, and APD index can be used as an intensity index of EASM. (2) EOF analysis of GHT anomalies at 500 hPa in the East Asia-West Pacific region shows that the first EOF mode is characterized with an obvious meridional East Asian pattern (EAP), and EAP index can also be used as an EASM intensity index. (3) The composite analysis of high/low APD index years reveals the close correlation of APD index with EAP at 500 hPa (or 850 hPa). The study shows an obvious opposite correlation exists between APD index and EAP index with a correlation coefficient of −0.23, which passes the confidence test at 0.10 level. (4) Both APD and EAP indexes are closely correlated with precipitation during flood-prone season in China and precipitation rate over the East Asia-West Pacific region. The significant correlation area at 5% confidence level is mainly located from the southern area of the Yangtze River valley to the ocean around southern Japan, and the former is a positive correlation and the latter is a negative one. Foundation: Cooperative Project funded by the Ministry of Science and Technology of the People’s Republic of China, No.2007DFB20210; National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.90502003; JICA China-Japan Technical Cooperative Project “China-Japanese Cooperative Research Center on Meteorological Disasters”. Author: Yu Shuqiu, Associate Professor, specialized in climate and climate change.     

南极政治及浅析

随着各国对南极考察和研究的日益深入,南极政治作为国际政治的一个新兴领域已经形成。本文拟通过对南极地区的领土争端问题、环境保护问题、矿产资源问题和科学考察问题的研究来阐述南极政治的主要内涵,并对南极政治法律框架在解决这些问题中的作用进行初步的分析,探讨南极条约体系与国际社会的互动对南极政治的影响。     

Spatio-temporal point pattern analysis on Wenchuan strong earthquake

For exploring the aftershock occurrence process of the 2008 Wenchuan strong earthquake, the spatio-temporal point pattern analysis method is employed to study the sequences of aftershocks with magnitude M≥4.0, M≥4.5, and M≥5.0. It is found that these data exhibit the spatio-temporal clustering on a certain distance scale and on a certain time scale. In particular, the space-time interaction obviously strengthens when the distance is less than 60 km and the time is less than 260 h for the first two aftershoc...     

东半球空间环境地基综合监测子午链简介

“东半球空间环境地基综合监测子午链”（简称子午工程）是我国空间科学领域开工建设的第一个国家重大基础设施项目。子午工程利用沿东半球120°E子午线附近和北纬30°N附近的15个综合性观测台站,运用无线电、地磁、光学和探空火箭等多种探测手段,连续监测地球表面20—30km以上到几百公里的中高层大气、电离层和磁层,以及十几个地球半径以外的行星际的空间环境参数。它将为我国各类用户提供完整、连续、可靠的多学科、多层次的空间环境地基综合监测数据。子午工程总投资1．67亿元,建设期3年,子午工程整体科学寿命预计超过11年。     

龙滩库区蓄水初期水库诱发地震活动分析

龙滩水利枢纽位于广西天峨,是一座典型高坝大库容水库。本文通过对库区及周围的地质构造和蓄水前后地震活动分析,总结了龙滩水库蓄水初期诱发地震的时间、空间和深度分布特征以及蓄水后库区水位变化与地震活动关系,讨论了龙滩库区蓄水初期诱发地震机理。     

Spectral element analysis on the characteristics of seismic wave propagation triggered by Wenchuan <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>s</Subscript>8.0 earthquake

The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake occurred in an active earthquake zone, i.e., Longmenshan tectonic zone. Seismic waves triggered by this earthquake can be used to explore the characteristics of the fault rupture process and the hierarchical structure of the Earth’s interior. We employ spectral element method incorporated with large-scale parallel computing technology, to investigate the characteristics of seismic wave propagation excited by Wenchuan earthquake. We calculate synthetic seismograms with one-point source model and three-point source model respectively. The AK135 model is employed as a prototype of our numerical global Earth model. The Earth’s ellipticity, Earth’s medium attenuation, and topography data are taken into consideration. These wave propagation processes are simulated by solving three-dimensional elastic wave governing equations. Three-dimensional visualization of our numerical results displays the profile of the seismic wave propagation. The three-point source, which is proposed from the latest investigations through field observation and reverse estimation, can better demonstrate the spatial and temporal characteristics of the source rupture process than the one-point source. We take comparison of synthetic seismograms with observational data recorded at 16 observatory stations. Primary results show that the synthetic seismograms calculated from three-point source agree well with the observations. This can further reveal that the source rupture process of Wenchuan earthquake is a multi-rupture process, which is composed by at least three or more stages of rupture processes. Supported by National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2004CB418406), National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40774049 and 40474038), and Computer Network Information Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. INF105-SCE-02-12)     

水下岩质边坡稳定性的模型试验研究

随着三峡水利建设工程的进行,许多原本位于水面以上且已趋于稳定的人工或自然岩质边坡将被淹没,导致边坡稳定性降低,而水的压力、冲击、渗流和侵蚀等综合作用,给下岩质边坡的稳定性带来大量的不确定性。基于已有的水下土质边坡稳定性试验和水下岩质边坡有限元分析,进行水下岩质边坡模型试验研究,探讨在水位升降水过程中和波浪作用下水下岩质边坡的稳定性和破坏机制。将结构面为30°和50°的两种岩质边坡模型布置在人工水槽中,采用波流系统进行水位升降水波浪冲击试验,量测岩质边坡的应力变化。通过分析边坡各测点应力变化,得出了一些有意义的结论：（1）把边坡前部岩体划分成3个区域,每个区域内应力变化规律相同;（2）水下岩质边坡坡脚处应力集中最大,破坏始于坡脚,并由此产生的塑性区沿结构面逐渐同坡顶发展,这与一般边坡从坡顶逐渐向下发展的开裂破坏形式完全不同;（3）波浪对水下岩质边坡结构面的影响,将随其倾角的变小而减弱。     

Quantification of spatial gradation of slope positions

Transition between slope positions (e.g., ridge, shoulder slope, back slope, foot slope, and valley) is often gradual. Quantification of spatial transitions or spatial gradations between slope positions can increase the accuracy of terrain parameterization for geographical or ecological modeling, especially for digital soil mapping at a fine scale. Current models for characterizing the spatial gradation of slope positions based on a gridded DEM either focus solely on the parameter space or depend on too many rules defined by topographic attributes, which makes such approaches impractical. The typical locations of a slope position contain the characteristics of the slope position in both parameter space and spatial context. Thus, the spatial gradation of slope positions can be quantified by comparing terrain characteristics (spatial and parametrical) of given locations to those at typical locations. Based on this idea, this paper proposes an approach to quantifying the spatial gradation of slope positions by using typical locations as prototypes. This approach includes two parts: the first is to extract the typical locations of each slope position and treat them as the prototypes of this position; and the second is to compute the similarity between a given location and the prototypes based on both local topographic attributes and spatial context. The new approach characterizes slope position gradation in both the attribute domain (i.e., parameter space) and the spatial domain (i.e., geographic space) in an easy and practicable way. Applications show that the new approach can quantitatively describe spatial gradations among a set of slope positions. Comparison of spatial gradation of A-horizon sand percentages with the quantified spatial gradation of slope positions indicates that the latter reflects slope processes, confirming the effectiveness of the approach. The comparison of a soil subgroup map of the study area with the maximum similarity map derived from the approach also suggests that the quantified spatial gradation of slope position can be used to aid geographical modeling such as digital soil mapping.     

东北地区泥炭表层沉积中植硅体分布特征

表土沉积物中的植硅体分析是了解第四纪沉积物中植硅体组成的重要途径,也是重建第四纪古环境的基础。对东北地区跨越3个气候带、6个地区的41处泥炭地表土中的植硅体进行提取,鉴定出东北泥炭表土中主要发育哑铃型、扇型、鞍型、方型、长方型、梯型、尖型、帽型、齿型、棒型和其它等11种植硅体类型。分析显示,它们的分布与纬度、地形和温热条件具有明显关系,即哑铃型、鞍型、扇型、方型、长方型和梯型植硅体随纬度和海拔较高而含量较小,其余类型反之;较高温度条件对应扇型、哑铃型植硅体含量较高,较高湿度对应扇型植硅体含量较高。