An Inconvenient Truth: blurring the lines between science and science fiction

Al Gore’s movie An Inconvenient Truth gives a variety of unusually biased interpretations of the state of climate science and global warming theory. These cover a wide range of natural events and processes which could potentially be impacted by global warming, but which the movie misrepresents as clear examples of the human influence on climate. A few examples include the mixing up of cause and effect in his graphical portrayal of temperature and carbon dioxide variations over hundreds of thousands of years; the repeated depiction of ice calving from glaciers as a sign of global warming; the implication that Hurricane Katrina was the fault of humans; and the particularly extreme view that the Greenland ice sheet will melt, flooding coastal cities worldwide. Ultimately, all of these are related to the widespread perception that scientists have uniquely tied global warming to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The real inconvenient truth is that science has no idea how much of recent warming is natural versus the result of human activities.     

Problems associated with luminescence dating of Late Quaternary glacial sediments in the NW Scottish Highlands

Linking the timing of glacial episodes and behaviour to climatic shifts that are documented in ice and marine sedimentary archives is key to understanding ocean-land interactions. In the NW Scottish Highlands a large number of closely spaced (‘hummocky’) moraines formed at retreating glacier margins. Independent age control on one palaeo-glacier limit is consistent with the timing of Younger Dryas (YD) glaciation in the area, but adjacent glacier lobes have remained undated due to the lack of sites and material for ¹⁴C dating. Direct dating of ice-marginal moraines using optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) techniques has never been attempted before in Scotland, but if successful, they may be the most appropriate methods for constraining the age of sediment deposition in the absence of organic material. Coarse-grained quartz and K-feldspar minerals from supraglacial sheet flow deposits and glacilacustrine sediments within ice-marginal moraines were analysed using the single-aliquot regenerative-dose (SAR) protocol. Independent age control and clear geomorphological relationships indicate that all samples should yield YD or post-Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) ages. Quartz OSL shine down curves showed low luminescence sensitivity, significant medium-to-slow components, a weak fast component, and scattered SAR data; Linearly Modulated-OSL (LM-OSL) measurements confirmed that the fast component was weak or absent. In contrast, feldspar infrared stimulated luminescence (IRSL) was highly sensitive with excellent SAR data. However, SAR data from 3 mm diameter aliquots of feldspar (200 grains) give higher than expected equivalent doses (D_e) by an order of magnitude. SAR measurements of small clusters of feldspar grains (ranging from 1–8) considerably broaden the apparent D_e distribution, but even the lowest value is about 2–3 times the expected D_e. Two possibilities arise to explain the quartz and feldspar data: (1) that glacial sequences in the NW Highlands re-work inherited (older) glacial deposits and that some of the pre-Devensian existing glacial landforms have only been modified during Devensian glaciation; or (2) that the sedimentary processes operating in these ice-marginal environments are not conducive to adequate bleaching of quartz and feldspar grains. Our study implies that ice-proximal supraglacial sediments from this region in NW Scotland reflect older ages of deposition, but dating YD sediments has not been possible.     

Diurnal variability in riverine dissolved organic matter composition determined by in situ optical measurement in the San Joaquin River (California,USA)

Dissolved organic matter (DOM) concentration and composition in riverine and stream systems are known to vary with hydrological and productivity cycles over the annual and interannual time scales. Rivers are commonly perceived as homogeneous with respect to DOM concentration and composition, particularly under steady flow conditions over short time periods. However, few studies have evaluated the impact of short term variability (<1 day) on DOM dynamics. This study examined whether diurnal processes measurably altered DOM concentration and composition in the hypereutrophic San Joaquin River (California) during a relatively quiescent period. We evaluated the efficacy of using optical in situ measurements to reveal changes in DOM which may not be evident from bulk dissolved organic carbon (DOC) measurement alone. The in situ optical measurements described in this study clearly showed for the first time diurnal variations in DOM measurements, which have previously been related to both composition and concentration, even though diurnal changes were not well reflected in bulk DOC concentrations. An apparent asynchronous trend of DOM absorbance and chlorophyll‐a in comparison to chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) fluorescence and spectral slope S_290–350 suggests that no one specific CDOM spectrophotometric measurement explains absolutely DOM diurnal variation in this system; the measurement of multiple optical parameters is therefore recommended. The observed diurnal changes in DOM composition, measured by in situ optical instrumentation likely reflect both photochemical and biologically‐mediated processes. The results of this study highlight that short‐term variability in DOM composition may complicate trends for studies aiming to distinguish different DOM sources in riverine systems and emphasizes the importance of sampling specific study sites to be compared at the same time of day. The utilization of in situ optical technology allows short‐term variability in DOM dynamics to be monitored and serves to increase our understanding of its processing and fundamental role in the aquatic environment. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Are water tables a subdued replica of the topography?

The water table in unconfined aquifers is often believed to be a subdued replica of the topography or land surface. However, this assumption has not been widely tested and in some cases has been found to be in error. An analysis of ground water rise in regional unconfined aquifers, using both a two-dimensional boundary element model and a one-dimensional Dupuit-Forchheimer model, reveals the conditions under which the water table does or does not closely follow the topography. A simple decision criterion is presented to estimate in advance under which conditions the water table is expected to be largely unrelated to the topography and under which conditions the topography controls the position of the water table.     

The agricultural revolution as environmental catastrophe: Implications for health and lifestyle in the Holocene

One of the most fundamental developments in the history of our species—and one having among the most profound impacts on landscapes and the people occupying them—was the domestication of plants and animals. In addition to altering landscapes around the globe from the terminal Pleistocene and early Holocene, the shift from foraging to farming resulted in negative and multiple consequences for human health. Study of human skeletal remains from archaeological contexts shows that the introduction of grains and other cultigens and the increase in their dietary focus resulted in a decline in health and alterations in activity and lifestyle. Although agriculture provided the economic basis for the rise of states and development of civilizations, the change in diet and acquisition of food resulted in a decline in quality of life for most human populations in the last 10,000 years.     

Double funnelling in a mature coastal British Columbia forest: spatial patterns of stemflow after infiltration

Many studies have focused on the amount of stemflow in different forests and for different rainfall events, but few studies have focused on how stemflow intensity varies during events or the infiltration of stemflow into the soil. Stemflow may lead to higher water delivery rates at the base of the tree compared with throughfall over the same area and fast and deeper infiltration of this water along roots and other preferential flow pathways. In this study, stemflow amounts and intensities were measured and blue dye experiments were conducted in a mature coniferous forest in coastal British Columbia to examine double funnelling of stemflow. Stemflow accounted for only 1% of precipitation and increased linearly with event total precipitation. Funnelling ratios ranged from less than 1 to almost 20; smaller trees had larger funnelling ratios. Stemflow intensity generally was highest for periods with high‐intensity rainfall later in the event. The maximum stemflow intensities were higher than the maximum precipitation intensities. Dye tracer experiments showed that stemflow infiltrated primarily along roots and was found more frequently at depth than near the soil surface. Lateral flow of stemflow was observed above a dense clay layer for both the throughfall and stemflow experiments. Stemflow appeared to infiltrate deeper (122 cm) than throughfall (85 cm), but this difference was in part a result of site‐specific differences in maximum soil depth. However, the observed high stemflow intensities combined with preferential flow of stemflow may lead to enhanced subsurface stormflow. This suggests that even though stemflow is only a very minor component of the water balance, it may still significantly affect soil moisture, recharge, and runoff generation. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The westward thermospheric jet-stream of the evening auroral oval

One of the most consistent and often dramatic interactions between the high latitude ionosphere and the thermosphere occurs in the vicinity of the auroral oval in the afternoon and evening period. Ionospheric ions, convected sunward by the influence of the magnetospheric electric field, create a sunward jet-stream in the thermosphere, where wind speeds of up to 1 km s^?1 can occur. This jet-stream is nearly always present in the middle and upper thermosphere (above 200 km altitude), even during periods of very low geomagnetic activity. However, the magnitude of the winds in the jet-stream, as well as its location and range in latitude, each depend on geomagnetic activity. On two occasions, jet-streams of extreme magnitude have been studied using simultaneous ground-based and satellite observations, probing both the latitudinal structure and the local time dependence. The observations have then been evaluated with the aid of simulations using a global, three-dimensional, time-dependent model of thermospheric dynamics including the effects of magnetospheric convection and particle precipitation. The extreme events, where sunward winds of above 800 ms^?1 are generated at relatively low geomagnetic latitudes (60–70°) require a greatly expanded auroral oval and large cross-polar cap electric field ( ~ 150 kV). These in turn are generated by a persistent strong Interplanetary Magnetic Field, with a large southward component. Global indices such as K_p are a relatively poor indicator of the magnitude and extent of the jet-stream winds.