Eco-geographic environment and regional development in Xinjiang of China

The study on relationship between eco-geographic environment (EGE) and regional development (RD) is of theoretical and practical significance to promote the comprehensive study on nature and human factors and regional coordination development. Based on the evaluation index system and models of EGE and RD, Quadrant Analysis Method (QAM) and the Coordination Degree and Coordinated Development Degree Model (CDCDDM) were applied to studying the relationship between EGE and RD in Xinjiang in this paper. The results show that Xinjiang can be divided into four type regions according to the relationship between EGE and RD, namely high coordination region (HCR), overloading development region (ODR), low coordination region (LCR) and potential development region (PDR). Most areas of Xinjiang belong to LCR which can not bear a larger population and support large-scale economic development. HCR, ODR and PDR, which are mainly distributed in piedmont oases and take basin as unit, should be focused on in the development of Xinjiang. The EGE has great influence on RD, and there is serious contradiction between them. Relevant suggestions on development strategies were put forward according to the character of different type regions, and the key regions of macro-layout of RD in Xinjiang were pointed out.     

Northward-shift of temperature zones in China’s eco-geographical study under future climate scenario

Despite the well-documented effects of global climate change on terrestrial species’ ranges, eco-geographical regions as the regional scale of ecosystems have been poorly studied especially in China with diverse climate and ecosystems. Here we analyse the shift of temperature zones in eco-geographical study over China using projected future climate scenario. Projected climate data with high resolution during 1961–2080 were simulated using regional climate model of PRECIS. The number of days with mean daily temperature above 10℃ and the mean temperature of January are usually regarded as the principal criteria to indicate temperature zones, which are sensitive to climate change. Shifts due to future climate change were calculated by comparing the latitude of grid cells for the future borderline of one temperature zone with that for baseline period (1961–1990). Results indicated that the ranges of Tropical, Subtropical, Warm Temperate and Plateau Temperate Zones would be enlarged and the ranges of Cold Temperate, Temperate and Plateau Sub-cold Zones would be reduced. Cold Temperate Zone would probably disappear at late this century. North borderlines of temperature zones would shift northward under projected future climate change, especially in East China. Farthest shifts of the north boundaries of Plateau Temperate, Subtropical and Warm Temperate Zones would be 3.1°, 5.3° and 6.6° latitude respectively. Moreover, northward shift would be more notably in northern China as future temperature increased.     

未来气候变化对我国南方水稻主产区季节性干旱的影响评估

研究我国水稻主产区季节性干旱受未来气候变化的影响, 对调整水稻种植布局、提高水稻生产适应气候变化能力具有重要意义。本文通过对比时间跨度为1981-2030 年水稻生产可用水量和季节性干旱的时空分布和干旱程度, 得出气候变化对未来我国水稻主产区季节性干旱有显著影响。主要结论有:2001-2030 年(对照期) 与1980-2000 年(基准期) 对比, (1) 早稻和晚稻生长季可用水量均值增加了10%以上, 中稻生长季可用水量保持不变。同时, 中稻和晚稻的生长季可用水量的空间分布更加均匀, 表明由于气候变化的影响, 水稻主产区水稻生长季可用水量从整体上会更加充沛、空间分布会更加均匀, 有利于缓解季节性干旱的发生。(2)水稻的季节性干旱均呈下降趋势, 早稻季节性干旱减少1.25 万km², 中稻季节性干旱减少8.00万km², 特别是晚稻季节性干旱减少25 万km², 几乎占晚稻种植面积的20%。表明由于气候变化的影响, 水稻主产区水稻季节性干旱总体趋于缓解, 特别是晚稻季节性干旱问题有明显改善。(3) 通过建立水文循环过程中可用水量与作物生长季需水量之间的关系, 构建的基于分布式水文模型的水分供需指数(WSDI) 适用于评估未来气候对水稻主产区季节性干旱的影响。     

广东省台风灾害经济损失风险评估

广东省是我国的经济大省,频繁遭受台风侵袭,造成巨大的经济损失,进行区域台风灾害经济损失风险的定量评估在制定防灾减灾措施方面具有重要的理论意义.本文通过1954-2008年间全国台风灾情数据与台风强度等级构建直接经济损失率曲线,采用GIS空间分析方法,计算广东全省98个县域单元不同强度等级台风经济脆弱性,在计算不同强度等级台风登陆广东的频次基础上,确定不同强度等级台风发生可能性,最终采用风险评估模型,对不同强度等级台风造成的广东省经济损失风险进行定量评估.评估结果表明:广东台风灾害造成的经济损失风险在百亿元以上,微度、轻度、中度和重度分别达到104.67、144.29、77.53和135.91亿元.空间上表现为珠三角地区的广州市、东莞市、深圳市、中山市、珠海市风险最高,从珠江入海口地区向内地呈辐射状减弱,内陆远离海岸线的县市风险值最低,不足0.50亿元,随着台风强度由微度到中度增强,粤西风险高于粤东,当达到重度时,表现为粤东沿海高于粤西沿海的格局.     

利用CINRAD／CB雷达产品对通辽地区一次降雪过程的分析

利用CINRAD／CB雷达产品对通辽地区2007年11月19日一次降雪过程的分析得出：基本反射率因子产品清晰地反映了这次天气过程的开始、发展与结束,可以用来确定降水回波的移动以及未来的趋势;并且通过不同仰角产品的对比可以判断云层的高度、厚度及强度（0．5°仰角产品探测到的云范围要比1．5°、2．4°仰角产品所探测到的大,0．5°仰角产品探测到的云多为低层云系）。速度图产品能够判断大气中的冷暖平流、层结稳定性、某一高度层的风向风速,以及存在的低空急流。对降水过程的预测与监测提供了十分有利的科学依据。     

知识经济时代的区域资源环境研究

知识经济时代正逐步向我们走来。本文主要从知识经济时代来临之际的区域资源环境研究入手,论述资源环境观念的创新,区域特点、区域综合评价、区域可持续发展的内涵的改变。阐述了区域资源环境的研究在面向知识经济时代、建设国家创新体系之际,应该着手的两大任务：一个是区域资源环境的研究在建设国家创新体系中所能发挥的作用,即区域资源环境研究对建设国家创新体系的贡献;另一个是区域资源环境研究在国家创新体系中自身的创新,即是区域资源环境研究本身的创新。     

内蒙古草地NPP变化特征及其对气候变化敏感性的CENTURY模拟研究

气候变化及其对植被净初级生产力的影响是全球变化研究的核心内容之一。基于空间化的CENTURY生物过程模型,分析1981-2010年内蒙古草地净初级生产力（NPP）的时空演变规律及其对关键气候因子的敏感性特征。结果表明：近30年内蒙古草地大部分区域NPP呈下降态势但趋势并不显著,全区平均降速约为1.17 g C/m²·a;NPP年代际变化时空差异较大,1980s至1990s约69.65%的区域NPP下降,1990s至2000s NPP下降加剧,下降面积较前者扩大了17.50%;NPP对降水与温度的敏感性特征空间异质性较强,但总体上区域降水减少可能是近30年内蒙古草地NPP下降的主要因素,温度升高同样会导致草地NPP下降,但作用程度较小。     

中国西南地区纵向岭谷地形对区域生态地理格局的作用(英文)

China’s southwestern special terrain pattern as parallel arrangement between longitudinal towering mountains and deep valleys has significant effects on the differentiation of local natural environment and eco-geographical pattern in this region.The 1:50,000 Digital Elevation Model(DEM) data of Longitudinal Range-Gorge Region(LRGR),meteorological observation data from the station establishment to 2010,hydrological observation data,Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI) and Net Primary Productivity(NPP) products of MOD13 and MOD17 as well as 1:1,000,000 vegetation type data were used.Moisture indices including surface atmospheric vapor content,precipitation,aridity/humidity index,surface runoff,and temperature indices including average temperature,annual accumulated temperature,total solar radiation were selected.Based on ANUSPLIN spline function,GIS spatial analysis,wavelet analysis and landscape pattern analysis,regional differentiation characteristics and main-control factors of hydrothermal pattern,ecosystem structure and function in this region were analyzed to reveal the effects of terrain pattern on regional differentiation of eco-geographical elements.The results show that:influenced by terrain pattern,moisture,temperature and heat in LRGR have shown significant distribution characteristics as intermittent weft differences and continuous warp extension.Longitudinal mountains and valleys not only have a north-south corridor function and diffusion effect on the transfer of major surface materials and energy,but also have east-west barrier function and blocking effect.Special topographic pattern has important influences on vegetation landscape diversity and spatial pattern of ecosystem structure and function,which is the main-control factor on vegetation landscape diversity and spatial distribution of ecosystem.Wavelet variance analysis reflects the spatial anisotropy of environmental factors,NDVI and NPP,while wavelet consistency analysis reveals the control factors on spatial distribution of NDVI and NPP as well as the quantitative relationship with control degree.Special terrain pattern in LRGR is the major influencing factor on eco-geographical regional differentiation in this region.Under the combined effect of zonality and non-zonality laws with "corridor-barrier" function as the main characteristic,special spatial characteristics of eco-geographical regional system in LRGR is formed.     

Climatic trends over the Tibetan Plateau during 1971-2000

Trends of annual and monthly temperature, precipitation, potential evapotranspi-ration and aridity index were analyzed to understand climate change during the period 1971–2000 over the Tibetan Plateau which is one of the most special regions sensitive to global climate change. FAO56–Penmen–Monteith model was modified to calculate potential evapotranspiration which integrated many climatic elements including maximum and mini-mum temperatures, solar radiation, relative humidity and wind speed. Results indicate gen-erally warming trends of the annual averaged and monthly temperatures, increasing trends of precipitation except in April and September, decreasing trends of annual and monthly poten-tial evapotranspiration, and increasing aridity index except in September. It is not the isolated climatic elements that are important to moisture conditions, but their integrated and simulta-neous effect. Moreover, potential evapotranspiration often changes the effect of precipitation on moisture conditions. The climate trends suggest an important warm and humid tendency averaged over the southern plateau in annual period and in August. Moisture conditions would probably get drier at large area in the headwater region of the three rivers in annual average and months from April to November, and the northeast of the plateau from July to September. Complicated climatic trends over the Tibetan Plateau reveal that climatic factors have nonlinear relationships, and resulte in much uncertainty together with the scarcity of observation data. The results would enhance our understanding of the potential impact of climate change on environment in the Tibetan Plateau. Further research of the sensitivity and attribution of climate change to moisture conditions on the plateau is necessary.     

多灾种综合风险评估与防范的理论认知:风险防范"五维"范式

在气候变化、经济全球化和快速城市化背景下,人类社会所面临的多灾种巨灾风险不断增加.综合风险防范事关人民群众生命财产安全与社会和谐稳定,是国家公共安全体系建设和可持续发展战略实施的重要内容.在系统梳理世界综合减灾与风险防范行动经验的基础上,客观审视我国防灾减灾救灾工作中存在的问题,从实际国情出发,提出构建中国综合灾害风险防范"五维"范式,即:理论建构引领实践探索、统筹谋划健全"一案三制"、综合思维优化管理模式、有的放矢制定应对策略和多措并举提升防范能力.面对日益复杂严峻的多灾种巨灾风险形势,需不断加强风险形成机制及其多维影响研究和风险普查、评估与监测预警工作,加快推进体制机制改革,完善法律保障和应急预案体系,打造政府主导、社会共治管理模式,依托现代科技实现风险管理信息化、智能化、精细化转型,为扎实提升我国综合灾害风险防范能力、实现安全与发展的有机统筹提供强有力的支撑和全方位的保障.