内蒙古草地NPP变化特征及其对气候变化敏感性的CENTURY模拟研究

气候变化及其对植被净初级生产力的影响是全球变化研究的核心内容之一。基于空间化的CENTURY生物过程模型,分析1981-2010年内蒙古草地净初级生产力（NPP）的时空演变规律及其对关键气候因子的敏感性特征。结果表明：近30年内蒙古草地大部分区域NPP呈下降态势但趋势并不显著,全区平均降速约为1.17 g C/m²·a;NPP年代际变化时空差异较大,1980s至1990s约69.65%的区域NPP下降,1990s至2000s NPP下降加剧,下降面积较前者扩大了17.50%;NPP对降水与温度的敏感性特征空间异质性较强,但总体上区域降水减少可能是近30年内蒙古草地NPP下降的主要因素,温度升高同样会导致草地NPP下降,但作用程度较小。     

Climatic trends over the Tibetan Plateau during 1971-2000

Trends of annual and monthly temperature, precipitation, potential evapotranspi-ration and aridity index were analyzed to understand climate change during the period 1971–2000 over the Tibetan Plateau which is one of the most special regions sensitive to global climate change. FAO56–Penmen–Monteith model was modified to calculate potential evapotranspiration which integrated many climatic elements including maximum and mini-mum temperatures, solar radiation, relative humidity and wind speed. Results indicate gen-erally warming trends of the annual averaged and monthly temperatures, increasing trends of precipitation except in April and September, decreasing trends of annual and monthly poten-tial evapotranspiration, and increasing aridity index except in September. It is not the isolated climatic elements that are important to moisture conditions, but their integrated and simulta-neous effect. Moreover, potential evapotranspiration often changes the effect of precipitation on moisture conditions. The climate trends suggest an important warm and humid tendency averaged over the southern plateau in annual period and in August. Moisture conditions would probably get drier at large area in the headwater region of the three rivers in annual average and months from April to November, and the northeast of the plateau from July to September. Complicated climatic trends over the Tibetan Plateau reveal that climatic factors have nonlinear relationships, and resulte in much uncertainty together with the scarcity of observation data. The results would enhance our understanding of the potential impact of climate change on environment in the Tibetan Plateau. Further research of the sensitivity and attribution of climate change to moisture conditions on the plateau is necessary.     

多灾种综合风险评估与防范的理论认知:风险防范"五维"范式

在气候变化、经济全球化和快速城市化背景下,人类社会所面临的多灾种巨灾风险不断增加.综合风险防范事关人民群众生命财产安全与社会和谐稳定,是国家公共安全体系建设和可持续发展战略实施的重要内容.在系统梳理世界综合减灾与风险防范行动经验的基础上,客观审视我国防灾减灾救灾工作中存在的问题,从实际国情出发,提出构建中国综合灾害风险防范"五维"范式,即:理论建构引领实践探索、统筹谋划健全"一案三制"、综合思维优化管理模式、有的放矢制定应对策略和多措并举提升防范能力.面对日益复杂严峻的多灾种巨灾风险形势,需不断加强风险形成机制及其多维影响研究和风险普查、评估与监测预警工作,加快推进体制机制改革,完善法律保障和应急预案体系,打造政府主导、社会共治管理模式,依托现代科技实现风险管理信息化、智能化、精细化转型,为扎实提升我国综合灾害风险防范能力、实现安全与发展的有机统筹提供强有力的支撑和全方位的保障.     

毛乌素地区农业用地方式转换与沙漠化

Introduction and the study area Desertification refers to land degradation phenomenon and process in arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas (the humid index between 0.05 and 0.65) resulting from various factors, including climatic variations and human ac…     

南海北部海陆过渡带地壳结构的研究现状及展望

首先总结了前人在南海北部海陆过渡带获得的研究成果：由重磁异常、水深及卫星影像等资料推测滨海断裂带存在于南海北部海陆过渡地区：介绍了最近在南海北部海陆过渡地区开展的海陆地震联测试验,其结果显示有一个穿透整个地壳的低速破碎带发育于海陆过渡地区,推测它为滨海断裂带在速度上的表现,另外广泛分布于华南大陆的中地壳低速层在海陆过渡处也有较好发育;总结了天然地震层析成像在南海北部海陆过渡带的研究成果。最后结合目前的研究现状,指出了今后我们的研究方向：在逐步完善目前海陆地震联测试验的基础上,同时开展海陆过渡带的多道地震数据采集及地球化学研究：加强海陆过渡带的地震监测。进行震源机制解和人工地震与天然地震联合成像的研究。     

1982-2013年中国植被NDVI空间异质性的气候影响分析

为研究气候变化与植被活动之间的复杂关系,采用1982-2013年GIMMS NDVI与气象站点温度与水分的监测资料,应用基于像元的地理加权回归方法,探究了中国植被NDVI及其动态特征对气候变化响应的空间格局。中国植被NDVI与地表温度呈空间非平稳关系,在空间上的负相关关系主要集中在东北、西北及东南部分地区,空间正相关则更为集中和连片;针对不同气候指标的标准化系数对比可知,植被NDVI受水分控制作用较为显著的区域主要集中在北方地区以及青藏高原,温度的主导作用区域则分布在华东、华中及西南地区,其中年均最高气温对NDVI的主导区域范围最广;植被NDVI动态与气候变率的回归结果表明,增温速率的升高会通过加剧干旱等机制对植被活动产生抑制作用,水分变率对植被活动的强弱起到了重要的调节作用。     

Sensitivity of arid/humid patterns in China to future climate change under a high-emissions scenario

Journal of Geographical Sciences - Changes in regional moisture patterns under the impact of climate change are an important focus for science. Based on the five global climate models (GCMs)...     

基于多源信息的水资源立体监测研究综述

水资源监测是水资源管理的基础和支撑。随着中国最严格水资源管理制度的实施,从水量、水质、用水效率3方面的水资源管理开始向精细化和动态化管理转变。水资源要素具有时空变异大、通量变化快等特点,单独依靠地面监测手段难以开展大范围动态高效监测。目前中国水资源监测体系的建设,总体上以地面监测为主,还不具备水资源精细化和动态化管理需求的监测能力。随着卫星遥感等数据资源的不断丰富和陆面同化系统的不断发展,建立地面观测、卫星遥感和陆面同化系统三位一体的立体监测体系,探讨不同监测方式、多要素的协同监测机理、水资源监测要素的组织机制,对提升中国水资源监控能力具有参考价值。     

Seismotectonics of the Taiwan Shoal region in the northeastern South China Sea: Insights from the crustal structure

A cluster of earthquakes occurred in the Taiwan Shoal region on the outer rise of the Manila Trench. Although most were of small to medium magnitudes, one strong earthquake occurred on September 16, 1994. Several previous studies have provided important information to progress our understanding of this single earthquake. However, little is currently known about the earthquake cluster, and it is necessary to investigate the deep crustal structure of the Taiwan Shoal region to understand the mechanisms involved in controlling and generating it. This study presents a two-dimensional seismic tomographic image of the crustal structure along the OBS2012 profile based on ocean-bottom seismograph (OBS) data, which exhibits a high-velocity anomaly flanked by low-velocity anomalies in the upper crust beneath the Taiwan Shoal. In this study, 765 earthquakes (Richter magnitude M_L > 1.5) occurring between 1991 and 2015 were studied and analyses of earthquake epicenters, regional faults, and the crustal structure provides an improved understanding of the nature of active tectonics in this region. Results of analyses indicate firstly that the high-velocity area represents major asperities that correspond to the location of the earthquake cluster and where stress is concentrated. It is also depicted that the earthquake cluster was influenced by fault interactions. However, the September 1994 earthquake occurred independently of these seismic activities and was associated with reactivation of a preexisting fault. It is also determined that slab pull is resisted by the exposed precollision accretionary prism, and the resistive force is causing accumulation of inplane compressive-stress. This may trigger a future damaging earthquake in the Taiwan Shoal region.