过去50年气候变化下中国潜在植被NPP的脆弱性评价

借助动态植被模型IBIS,首先模拟了过去50年（1961-2010年）气候变化下中国潜在植被NPP的动态变化,然后采用IPCC第五次评估报告选定的标准气候态时段（1986-2005年）平均气候状态作为“标准年气候”,并将该气候条件下的潜在植被NPP作为评价基准。通过与基准进行比较,计算每一年潜在植被NPP的波动情况,进而评价该年的气候条件是否使潜在植被“不适应”以及“不适应”的程度,最后根据过去50年的“不适应”次数和程度综合判断气候变化下潜在植被NPP的脆弱性。评价结果显示：在过去50年的气候变化下,天山以南的暖温带荒漠生态系统、北方温带草原生态系统以及青藏高原西部的高寒草原生态系统更容易受到气候变化的不利影响,NPP呈现出较高的脆弱性;而大部分以森林为主的生态系统则不容易受到气候变化的影响,NPP脆弱性较低,其中以常绿阔叶林和针叶林为主的生态系统NPP脆弱性更低。此外,天山以北的温带荒漠生态系统以及青藏高原中部和东部的高寒草原草甸生态系统NPP也呈现出较低的脆弱性。     

Role of the Wide-angle OBS Seismic Exploration in the Research of Marine Sedimentary Basin

Marine sedimentary basin is an important tectonic unit in the earth, and the evolution of marine sedimentary basin involves a series of the coupling and evolution of geodynamic mechanism such as the crust-mantle, the lithosphere-asthenosphere, the strata-fluid deposition. Therefore, the study of marine sedimentary basin dynamics includes deep structure state of earth, material composition and regional tectonic evolution, and also internal structure, tectonic characteristics and pore fluid characteristics strata of the basin. Wide angle Ocean Bottom Seismometer (OBS) seismic exploration is a marine geophysical survey method originated and developed since 1980’s and 1990’s, which has the advantages of strong penetration capability, high seismic imaging precision and reception of both P-wave and S-wave, and playing an increasing significant role in the research of marine sedimentary basin at the aspect of regional tectonic evolution, internal structure and pore fluid development characteristics of strata in recent years. In the study of passive continental margin, the crustal structure acquired from wide angle OBS seismic data provides the direct evidence that divides the passive continental margins into magma-poor and magma-dominated ones, and the degree of thinning and spatial variation characteristics of crust provide constraints for dynamics simulations of tectonic evolution in marine sedimentary basin. In the study of the structure features of basin, wide angle OBS seismic exploration fills in gaps at the aspect of investigation depth and complex geological structure in conventional multi-channel seismic survey, and acquires overpressure distribution status of basin according to the velocity structure characteristics of strata, and then infer the basin sedimentation velocity and pore fluid characteristics. In the study of internal fluid system in marine sedimentary basin, it reveals the velocity structure of natural gas hydrate reservoir through the analysis and processing of wide angle OBS seismic data, and calculates the thickness of natural gas hydrate reservoir and the content of hydrate and free gas in pore based on the velocity variation. Of course, the future wide angle OBS seismic exploration in the aspect of dynamic evolution and mechanism research in marine sedimentary basin will play a more important role with the development of marine seismic exploration technology, the improvement of data processing and instrument parameters.     

生态地理区域系统的比较研究

生态地理区域系统通过对代表自然界宏观生态系统的生物和非生物要素地理相关性的比较研究和综合分析,按照自然界的地理地带分异规律,划分或合并而形成不同等级的区域系统。用中国的研究与国外同类研究的比较,可以拓宽这一领域的思路,便于在这一领域与国外的学者使用相似的科学语言进行学术交流,使中国这一领域的研究走向世界。本文从生态地理区域系统的发展过程、等级单位、指标体系与表达方法,区域划分等方面将中国有代表性的生态地理区域系统与国外同类研究进行比较,认为中外的研究有许多共同之处,如目标、研究内容和服务对象与环境、生态、全球变化等联系在一起,其中与美国R. Bailey所划分的美国、北美和全球生态地理区域更为接近,在等级系统、指标体系、表达方式到划分结果有近似之处。地域的差异,指标使用的不同,制图过程和表达方式的差异造成了区域划分的差别,似可以通过野外实地生态类型的辨识来加以修订。     

气候变化国家评估报告（II）：气候变化的影响与适应

已经观测到的气候变化影响是显著的、多方面的。各个领域和地区都存在有利和不利影响,但以不利影响为主,未来的气候变暖将会对中国的生态系统、农业以及水资源等部门和沿海地区产生重大的不利影响。采取适应措施可以减轻气候变化的不利影响,应将适应气候变化的行动逐步纳入国民经济和社会发展的中长期规划中。由于我国科学研究的相对不足和科学认识能力的局限,目前的气候变化影响评估方法和结果还存在很大的不确定性。应当加强区域适应气候变化的案例研究、扩大研究领域、加强极端天气、气候事件影响的研究,以降低影响评估的不确定性,并提出切实可行的适应对策。     

Flood loss analysis and quantitative risk assessment in China

Risk assessment is a prerequisite for flood risk management. Practically, most of the decision making requires that the risks and costs of all risk mitigation options are evaluated in quantified terms. Therefore, a quantitative assessment of possible flood loss is very important, especially for emergency planning and pre-disaster preparedness. This paper presents a preliminary methodology and an operational approach for assessing the risk of flood loss to the population, crops, housing, and the economy at county level in China. The present work assesses the risk of loss for each element (people, crops, and so on) under low-, moderate-, and high-intensity flood using intensity-loss curves and loss rates based on historical flood data from 1990 to 2008. Results show that the counties with high flood risk are primarily located in North, East, Central, and South China, particularly in the lower reaches of rivers. On the other hand, the risk of most counties in the western region is generally lower than that of counties in the eastern region. However, for the entire country, the high-risk regions have both a substantial amount of rainfall and low terrain, making such regions highly prone to flooding. Moreover, these high-risk regions present both high population and wealth density.     

Disciplinary structure and development strategy of physical geography in China

Journal of Geographical Sciences - Physical geography, one of the branches of geography, is the basic discipline of geographic science. And it is the scientific foundation of ecology, environmental...     

Modeling net primary productivity of the terrestrial ecosystem in China from 1961 to 2005简

Net primary productivity （NPP） is the structure and function of the ecosystem. NPP can most important index that represents the be simulated by dynamic global vegetation models （DGVM）, which are designed to represent vegetation dynamics relative to environ- mental change. This study simulated the NPP of China＇s ecosystems based on the DGVM Integrated Biosphere Simulator （IBIS） with data on climate, soil, and topography. The appli- cability of IBIS in the NPP simulation of China＇s terrestrial ecosystems was verified first. Comparison with other relevant studies indicates that the range and mean value of simula- tions are generally within the limits of observations; the overall pattern and total annual NPP are close to the simulations conducted with other models. The simulations are also close to the NPP estimations based on remote sensing. Validation proved that IBIS can be utilized in the large-scale simulation of NPP in China＇s natural ecosystem. We then simulated NPP with climate change data from 1961 to 2005, when warming was particularly striking. The following are the results of the simulation. （1） Total NPP varied from 3.61 GtC/yr to 4.24 GtC/yr in the past 45 years and exhibited minimal significant linear increase or decrease. （2） Regional differences in the increase or decrease in NPP were large but exhibited an insignificant overall linear trend. NPP declined in most parts of eastern and central China, especially in the Loess Plateau. （3） Similar to the fluctuation law of annual NPP, seasonal NPP also displayed an insignificant increase or decrease; the trend line was within the general level. （4） The re- gional differences in seasonal NPP changes were large. NPP declined in spring, summer, and autumn in the Loess Plateau but increased in most parts of the Tibetan Plateau.     

Vulnerability of natural ecosystem in China under regional climate scenarios:An analysis based on eco-geographical regions简

Assessment of vulnerability for natural ecosystem to climate change is a hot topic in climate change and ecology, and will support adapting and mitigating climate change. In this study, LPJ model modified according to features of China＇s natural ecosystems was em- ployed to simulate ecosystem dynamics under A2, B2 and A1B scenarios. Vulnerability of natural ecosystem to climate change was assessed according to the vulnerability assessment model. Based on eco-geographical regions, vulnerability of natural ecosystem to climate change was analyzed. Results suggest that vulnerability for China＇s natural ecosystems would strengthen in the east and weaken in the west, but the pattern of ecosystem vulner- ability would not be altered by climate change, which rises from southeast to northeast gradually. Increase in ecosystem vulnerable degree would mainly concentrate in temperate humid/sub-humid region and warm temperate humid/sub-humid region. Decrease in eco- system vulnerable degree may emerge in northwestern arid region and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region. In the near-term scale, natural ecosystem in China would be slightly affected by cli- mate change. However, in mid-term and long-term scales, there would be severely adverse effect, particularly in the east with better water and thermal condition.     

黔西南卡林型金矿床与古油藏的成因联系:有机岩相学证据

黔西南卡林型金矿床中存在两种类型的有机质,一种为具较低反射率的原地藻类体,散布于金矿石和沉积围岩中,多呈层纹状或条带状平行于层理面产出;另一种为热解沥青/焦沥青,多呈微细粒状产于蚀变及矿化岩石中,尤其是高品位矿石中,与主阶段似碧玉状石英、含砷黄铁矿、毒砂紧密共生或伴生,或呈分散的粒状被主阶段和晚阶段的石英、方解石、雄黄等热液矿物包裹。沥青以含较高的与成矿密切相关的微量元素As(4.90%～7.88%)和S(大多为7.48%～15.24%)区别于原地有机质(不含As,S含量2.72%～7.18%)。金矿石热液矿物中常见气相CH4、气液两相CH4-H2O等烃类流体包裹体。古油藏沥青多见于二叠系生物礁碳酸盐岩的溶洞、孔隙、裂缝等开放空间中,或单独产出,或与热液方解石伴生,沥青多呈镶嵌结构,显示出高热演化程度的特点。岩相学证据显示,金矿床成矿流体是一种富含金属和碳氢化合物的油水不混溶的盆地流体,金与烃类有机质一起活化、迁移,并通过不同的沉淀和捕获机制成矿、成藏。     

1981-2010年气候变化对青藏高原实际蒸散的影响(英文)

From 1981 to 2010,the effects of climate change on evapotranspiration of the alpine ecosystem and the regional difference of effects in the Tibetan Plateau(TP) were studied based on the Lund-Potsdam-Jena dynamic vegetation model and data from 80 meteorological stations.Changes in actual evapotranspiration(AET) and water balance in TP were analyzed.Over the last 30 years,climate change in TP was characterized by significantly increased temperature,slightly increased precipitation,and decreased potential evapotranspiration(PET),which was significant before 2000.AET exhibited increasing trends in most parts of TP.The difference between precipitation and AET decreased in the southeastern plateau and increased in the northwestern plateau.A decrease in atmospheric water demand will lead to a decreased trend in AET.However,AET in most regions increased because of increased precipitation.Increased precipitation was observed in 86% of the areas with increased AET,whereas decreased precipitation was observed in 73% of the areas with decreased AET.