气候变化背景下中国风暴潮灾害风险及适应对策研究进展

风暴潮是沿海地区在强烈的大气扰动条件下产生的异常增水现象,并受海平面上升等因素的影响。中国风暴潮灾害频繁,其中尤以东南沿海地区发生频率较高,灾害损失严重。本文从风暴潮灾害的危险性、承灾体的易损性、综合风险区划3个方面系统总结风暴潮灾害的研究进展及存在的主要问题;并以风暴潮灾情特征及风险评估为基础,探讨气候变化对风暴潮灾害风险的影响及其适应对策。气候变化引起的海平面上升将影响风暴潮的趋势、周期及风险区域,因而亟待开展结合海平面上升等因素的综合风险评估。充分考虑气候变化背景下沿海地区自然条件变化及社会经济发展状况,注重短期与长期相结合,完善风险评估体系。为适度、有序的适应气候变化下风暴潮灾害风险,中国在应急预警机制、工程防御及政策法规等适应能力建设方面不断完善,以提高风暴潮灾害的防灾减灾能力。     

基于遥感数据的西藏高原自然生态系统脆弱性评估

基于生态系统结构、功能、生境的脆弱性评价指标体系,以MODIS为基础数据源,评估了西藏高原自然生态系统的脆弱性,并揭示其空间异质性特征。结果表明：① 分别基于气候、结构以及功能指标的西藏高原生态系统脆弱性程度空间分布呈现出相似规律,整体为从东南向西北脆弱性程度逐渐加剧的趋势;而基于地形指标的生态脆弱性则呈现相反的分布格局,说明了相对地形而言,气候因子对于西藏高原生态系统宏观分布状况更为重要;② 综合生态系统结构、功能及气候和地形生境特征对脆弱性的影响,全区呈现从东南向西北综合脆弱性水平逐渐升高的趋势,在评估区范围内综合脆弱性等级为中等及以上的地区共占74%,整体脆弱性程度较大,其中综合脆弱性等级为很高水平的地区占了45.8%。明晰西藏高原自然生态系统的脆弱性程度及其空间分布特征,可为典型脆弱生态系统的监测和综合评估提供科学依据,进而有利于青藏地区生态环境治理工作的顺利进行。     

中国北方干湿过渡区生态系统生产力的气候变化风险评估

气候变化风险是人类社会发展面临的严峻挑战,评估识别对气候波动响应敏感且复杂的干湿过渡区生态系统所面临的气候变化风险是一个重要科学问题,对区域气候治理和风险管理具有科学意义.本文利用参与耦合模式比较计划第五阶段(CMIP5)的多气候模式多情景数据,通过改进和验证Lund-Potsdam-Jena(LPJ)动态全球植被模型...     

南海瑞雷面波群速度层析成像及其地球动力学意义

南海处于欧亚板块、太平洋板块和印度—澳大利亚板块的交会区,是西北太平洋一系列边缘海中最大的边缘海。关于南海的打开以往研究提出了如印度板块与欧亚板块碰撞驱动挤出以及古南海俯冲拖拽等诸多模型。本文力图通过南海海盆及周边各向异性结构来约束南海演化机制。基于同济大学2012和2014年在南海中央海盆进行的两次被动源宽频带海底地震观测试验回收的10台OBS记录仪近1年的地震数据,本文采用三种不同的横波分裂方法,获取了中央海盆针对两次远震的XKS分裂结果以及南海周边20次区域地震提供的S震相分裂结果。SKS分裂结果显示,南海中央海盆下方存在快轴方向为NE-SW向的各向异性,其成因可能与海底扩张时期沿洋脊方向的地幔流以及南海海洋板块俯冲拖拽的地幔流有关。南海及其周边上地幔存在强各向异性,且不同方位观测到的各向异性不同,快轴方向与前人SKS横波分裂结果、GPS和板块运动一致,较好地对应了区域构造运动或者地幔对流模型。各向异性结果与印度—欧亚板块碰撞驱动挤出模型以及古南海俯冲板块拖拽模型预期结果一致,与理想的地幔柱上涌驱动模型不一致。由于海盆各向异性观测特别有限,各向异性结果不能证实亦不能证伪“大西洋型”海底扩张模型、弧后扩张模型和板缘破裂模型,后续还需要更多的观测结果来证实或证伪上述模型。     

Shortening the recurrence periods of extreme water levels under future sea-level rise

Sea-level rise, as a result of global warming, may lead to more natural disasters in coastal regions where there are substantial aggregations of population and property. Thus, this paper focuses on the impact of sea-level rise on the recurrence periods of extreme water levels fitted using the Pearson type III (P-III) model. Current extreme water levels are calculated using observational data, including astronomical high tides and storm surges, while future extreme water levels are determined by superposing scenario data of sea-level rise onto current extreme water levels. On the basis of a case study using data from Shandong Province, China, results indicated that sea-level rise would significantly shorten the recurrence periods of extreme water levels, especially under higher representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. Results showed that by the middle of the century, 100-year current extreme water levels for all stations would translate into once in 15–30 years under RCP 2.6, and once in ten to 25 years under RCP 8.5. Most seriously, the currently low probability event of a 1000-year recurrence would become common, occurring nearly every 10 years by 2100, based on projections under RCP 8.5. Therefore, according to this study, corresponding risk to coastlines could well be increase in future, as the recurrence periods of extreme water levels would be shortened with climate change.     

Intensified risk to ecosystem productivity under climate change in the arid/humid transition zone in northern China

Assessing the climate change risk faced by the ecosystems in the arid/humid transition zone(AHTZ) in northern China holds scientific significance to climate change adaptation. We simulated the net primary productivity(NPP) for four representative concentration pathways(RCPs) using an improved Lund-Potsdam-Jena model. Then a method was established based on the NPP to identify the climate change risk level. From the midterm period(2041–2070) to the long-term period(2071–2099), the risks indicated by the negative anomaly and the downward trend of the NPP gradually extended and increased. The higher the scenario emissions, the more serious the risk. In particular, under the RCP8.5 scenario, during 2071–2099, the total risk area would be 81.85%, that of the high-risk area would reach 54.71%. In this high-risk area, the NPP anomaly would reach –96.00±46.95 gC·m~(-2)·a~(-1), and the rate of change of the NPP would reach –3.56±3.40 gC·m~(-2)·a~(-1). The eastern plain of the AHTZ and the eastern grasslands of Inner Mongolia are expected to become the main risk concentration areas. Our results indicated that the management of future climate change risks requires the consideration of the synergistic effects of warming and intensified drying on the ecosystem.     

日本九州俯冲带b值成像及其构造意义 *

日本九州俯冲带是菲律宾海板块与欧亚板块汇聚边界上一个独具特色的区域, 也是研究俯冲带内板块构造作用的理想场所。为了解该俯冲带内的板间应力状态和相互作用, 本研究利用震源深度大于20km的97251个地震事件, 通过b值计算详细刻画了该俯冲板片上表面以及垂直海沟走向的剖面特征。结果发现, b值表现出明显的空间变化, 整体上沿南海海槽和琉球海沟从东北往西南方向逐渐增大, 同时在俯冲的九州-帕劳海脊上存在显著的低值区。从b值与应力的负相关性推断, 进入俯冲带的海脊以及海脊东北侧的四国海盆洋壳与俯冲带上覆板片耦合作用较强; 而在海脊西南侧, 俯冲带内汇聚板片的耦合作用相对较弱。究其原因, 本文认为九州-帕劳海脊两侧俯冲洋壳在形成时代和汇聚速率上的差异起着重要作用。对于九州-帕劳海脊来说, 俯冲带浅部的低b值区主要是由于隆起的海脊增强了与上覆板块的耦合作用。随着俯冲深度的增加和俯冲板片倾角的急剧变陡, 沿海脊可能发生了板片撕裂, 从而释放了海脊与上覆板片间的挤压-剪切应力, 使耦合程度大大减弱。     

贵州水银洞金矿床成矿流体不混溶的包裹体证据

通过对水银洞金矿床中流体包裹体的观测和热力学参数计算,探讨了成矿流体不混溶的热力学条件。研究结果表明,该矿床石英中的流体包裹体分为H_2O包裹体、CO_2包裹体和CO_2-H_2O包裹体三大类,并以富含CO_2-H_2O包裹体为特征,CO_2-H_2O包裹体可进一步划分为富H_2O相CO_2-H_2O包裹体和富CO_2相CO_2-H_2O包裹体。加热时富H_2O相CO_2-H_2O包裹体完全均一成H_2O相;而富CO_2相CO_2-H_2O包裹体完全均一成CO_2相,而且二者的完全均一温度和完全均一压力一致,说明它们是同时期捕获的CO_2-低盐水不混溶流体包裹体组合。它们形成时的热力学条件是:形成温度236℃,形成压力324 bar(1bar=10~5Pa);共存两相流体密度:低盐水相0.900 g/cm~3,CO_2相0.314 g/cm~3;共存两相中CO_2的摩尔分数:低盐水相0.0376,CO_2相0.7337;水溶液含盐度w(NaCl)约为1.3%。     

STATISTICAL RELATIONS BETWEEN GEOMORPHIC PARAMETERS- A CASE STUDY OF THE YUNNAN REACH OF THE LANCANGJIANG RIVER IN SOUTHWESTERN CHINA

The properties of rivers and their catchments can be expressed by statistical relationships between geomorphic parameters. These statistical relationships may reveal some inherent differences in geomorphic evolution for different reaches or different order tributaries of a river basin. A case study was undertaken of the Yunnan reach of the Langcangjiang River. The catchment area, channel length and gradient of the first-, second- and third-order tributaries all with catchment areas larger than 100 km2 in the Yunnan reach were the main geomorphic parameters evaluated. The correlation between catchment area and channel length as well as between catchment area and channel gradient with respect to the total tributaries, different reach tributaries, and different order tributaries were revealed using statistical methods. In general, the channel length as a function of catchment area, was best expressed by a quadratic function where channel length increases with increasing catchment area (half parabola), while the channel gradient as a function of catchment area is best expressed by an exponential decay function. Comparison of the best-fit formulas revealed the following phenomena: the lower Yunnan reach tributaries and the first-order tributaries have a dominant effect on geomorphic parameters of the total tributaries. In addition, the statistical relationships indicate that the river geomorphic system in the upper and lower Yunnan reaches evolved differently. This study method used to differentiate river characteristics by determining statistical relationships between geomorphic parameters may be extended to other rivers and their catchments.     

1954-2011年盐城市气温和降水变化特征

根据盐城市2个观测站点1954-2011年逐月平均气温和降水资料,采用线性趋势分析、M-K检验、滑动t检验等方法,分析了盐城市气温和降水的气候变化特征。结果表明:盐城市年平均气温以0.24℃/10a的速率显著增加,其中,春季的升温速率最大(0.32℃/10a),秋季和冬季次之(分别为0.27℃/10a和0.28℃/10a),夏季最小(0.08℃/10a)且不显著。年降水量以17.1 mm/10a的速率呈弱的下降趋势,春、夏、秋季降水量均呈弱的下降趋势,而冬季降水量则呈弱的增加趋势。全年和四季(除春季)平均气温在20世纪90年代后升高明显,进入21世纪后升温幅度明显加大。年降水量具有"减-增-减"的年代际变化特征,四季降水距平各自波动特征不同,春、夏季降水量偏多期在20世纪50年代中后期和90年代,秋季降水量偏多期在50年代中后期、60年代和80年代,冬季降水量偏多期为90年代以后,其余年代为降水量偏少期。年平均气温在1993年发生突变式增温,春、夏、秋、冬四季气温突变时间分别在1993年、2000年、1997年和1991年。全年和四季降水量都没有明显突变现象。