Application of saddlepoint approximation in reliability analysis of dynamic systems

The application of the saddlepoint approximation to reliability analysis of dynamic systems is investigated. The failure event in reliability problems is formulated as the exceedance of a single performance variable over a prescribed threshold level. The saddlepoint approximation technique provides a choice to estimate the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the performance variable. The failure probability is obtained as the value of the complement CDF at a specif ied threshold. The method requires computing the saddlepoint from a simple algebraic equation that depends on the cumulant generating function (CGF) of the performance variable. A method for calculating the saddlepoint using random samples of the performance variable is presented. The applicable region of the saddlepoint approximation is discussed in detail. A 10-story shear building model with white noise excitation illustrates the accuracy and effi ciency of the proposed methodology.     

Lateral continuity of basement seismic reflections in 15 Ma ultrafast-spreading crust at ODP Site 1256

The Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) initiated drilling at Site 1256D in the Guatemala Basin, about 1,000 km off the East Pacific Rise to penetrate plutonic rocks, anticipated to be relatively shallow in this region, formed at an ultra-fast spreading rate. IODP Expedition E312 successfully drilled into gabbros at ~1,150 m in basement. Multi-channel seismic traces show weak laterally coherent sub-basement reflections at borehole depths. Synthetic reflectivity seismograms were computed using a Ricker wavelet and impedance profiles from borehole sonic logs. These seismograms show significant sub-basement amplitude peaks. A zero-offset vertical seismic profile, shot on E312, was processed to investigate the authenticity of these reflections and their relationship to borehole geology. A dual scheme of the median filtering and F–K dip filtering was used. Tests with synthetic seismograms indicate the approach is effective at reasonable SNR levels. Downgoing energy is clearly identified but negligible upgoing energy is visible over random noise. These results indicate that lava flows and igneous contacts in upper ocean crust have significant topography on lateral scales less than the Fresnel Zone (~300 m) due to igneous and tectonic processes.     

Environmental Geochemistry and Acid Mine Drainage Evaluation of an Abandoned Coal Waste Pile at the Alborz-Sharghi Coal Washing Plant,NE Iran

In this paper, an abandoned waste coal pile, which is resulted from Alborz-Sharghi coal washing plant, NE of Iran was mineralogically and geochemically characterized to evaluate pyrite oxidation, acid mine drainage (AMD) generation, and trace element mobility. After digging ten trenches and vertical sampling, a quantitative method including the atomic absorption test, and the quality-based methods including optical study were carried out for determination of pyrite fractions in the waste pile. The geochemical results revealed that the fraction of remaining pyrite increased with depth, indicating that pyrite oxidation is limited to the shallower depths of the pile which were confirmed by variations of sulfate, pH, EC, and carbonate with depth of the pile. To evaluate the trend of trace elements and mineralogical constituents of the waste particles, the samples were analyzed by using XRD, ICP-MS, and ICP-OES methods. The results showed the secondary and neutralizing minerals comprising gypsum have been formed below the oxidation zone. Besides, positive values of net neutralization potential indicated that AMD generation has not taken in the waste pile. In addition, variations of trace elements with depth reveal that Pb and Zn exhibited increasing trends from pile surface toward the bottom sampling trenches while another of them such as Cu and Ni had decreasing trends with increasing depth of the waste pile.     

Conductivity model for pyrite-bearing laminated and dispersed shaly sands based on a differential equation and the generalized Archie equation

The conductance of pyrite-bearing laminated and dispersed shaly sands is not well understood and resistivity models for pyrite-bearing shaly sands are nonexistent. Thus, we first synthesize clean pyrite-matrix samples, and quartz-matrix samples with variable laminated shale, dispersed shale, and pyrite content and then perform petrophysics experiments to assess the effect of pyrite content on the conductivity of pyrite-bearing shaly sands. Second, based on the differences in conductivity and conduction pathways and geometries because of the variable composition of the pyrite-bearing laminated and dispersed shaly sands, we divide the shaly sands into their components, i.e., laminated shale, quartz grains, pyrite grains, hydrocarbon, dispersed shale, microscopic capillary water, and mobile water. A generalized resistivity model is proposed to describe the conductivity of pyrite-bearing laminated and dispersed shaly sands, based on the combined conductivity differential equation and generalized Archie equation. In the generalized resistivity model, the conductivity differential equation is used to describe the conductivity of dispersed inclusions in a host, whereas the generalized Archie equation is used to describe the conductivity of two conducting phases. Moreover, parallel conductance theory is used to describe the conductivity of dispersed shaly sands and laminated shale. Theoretical analysis suggests that the proposed model satisfies the physical constraints and the model and experimental results agree. The resistivity and resistivity index of shaly sands decrease with increasing conductivity and pyrite. Finally, the accuracy of the resistivity model is assessed based on experimental data from 46 synthetic core samples with different oil saturation. The model can describe the conductivity of clean pyrite-matrix samples, and quartz-matrix samples with different volumes of laminated shale, dispersed shale, and pyrite. An accurate saturation model of pyrite-bearing laminated and dispersed shaly sands is thus obtained and the log data interpretation in complex shaly sands can improve with the proposed model.     

Methane hydrate formation comparisons in media with and without a water source supply

Water is a necessary element during gas hydrate formations. Therefore, by analyzing water depletion changes in media, the reaction characteristics of methane hydrate in media can be studied. In this study, two water sources supplying some liquid water which may be consumed by the methane hydrate formation reactions were designed and assembled. Using them, the full formation processes of methane hydrate was studied. Experimental results show the following： If heat released from nucleation reaction of methane hydrate is diffused rapidly, the nucleation ratios will be enhanced discernibly. While the hydrate is formed, a force is generated that sucks fresh water from the source into the vicinity of the hydrate, slowing down the cementation process and causing some hydrate grain dissociation. As a result of cementation differences, the hydrate reaction processes with different water sources present linear or quadratic equation characteristics. After a few repeated dissociation and formation processes of some hydrate grains caused by the fresh water, the gas amounts contained in hydrate will be significantly enhanced.     

STUDIES ON TERRACES AND RIVER SYSTEM CHANGES OF THE UPPER YELLOW RIVER

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Mass-front velocity of dry granular flows influenced by the angle of the slope to the runout plane and particle size gradation

The mass-front velocities of granular flows results from the joint action of particle size gradations and the underlying surfaces.However,because of the complexity of friction during flow movement,details such as the slope-toe impedance effects and momentum-transfer mechanisms have not been completely explained by theoretical analyses,numerical simulations,or field investigations.To study the mass-front velocity of dry granular flows influenced by the angle of the slope to the runout plane and particle size gradations we conducted model experiments that recorded the motion of rapid and long-runout rockslides or avalanches.Flume tests were conducted using slope angles of 25°,35°,45°,and 55° and three particle size gradations.The resulting mass-front motions consisted of three stages:acceleration,velocity maintenance,and deceleration.The existing methods of velocity prediction could not explain the slowing effect of the slope toe or the momentum-transfer steady velocity stage.When the slope angle increased from 25° to 55°,the mass-front velocities dropped significantly to between 44.4% and59.6% of the peak velocities and energy lossesincreased from 69.1% to 83.7% of the initial,respectively.The velocity maintenance stages occurred after the slope-toe and mass-front velocity fluctuations.During this stage,travel distances increased as the angles increased,but the average velocity was greatest at 45°.At a slope angle of 45°,as the median particle size increased,energy loss around the slope toe decreased,the efficiency of momentum transfer increased,and the distance of the velocity maintenance stage increased.We presented an improved average velocity formula for granular flow and a geometrical model of the energy along the flow line.     

Practical Incorporation of Multivariate Parameter Uncertainty in Geostatistical Resource Modeling

There is a need to bridge theory and practice for incorporating parameter uncertainty in geostatistical simulation modeling workflows. Simulation workflows are a standard practice in natural resource and recovery modeling, but the incorporation of multivariate parameter uncertainty into those workflows is challenging. However, the objectives can be met without considerable extra effort and programming. The sampling distributions of statistics comprise the core theoretical notion with the addition of the spatial degrees of freedom to account for the redundancy in the spatially correlated data. Prior parameter uncertainty is estimated from multivariate spatial resampling. Simulation-based transfer of prior parameter uncertainty results in posterior distributions which are updated by data conditioning and the model domain extents and configuration. The results are theoretically tractable and practical to achieve, providing realistic assessments of uncertainty by accounting for large-scale parameter uncertainty, which is often the most important component impacting a project. A simulation-based multivariate workflow demonstrates joint modeling of intrinsic shale properties and uncertainty in estimated ultimate recovery in a shale gas project. The multivariate workflow accounts for joint prior parameter uncertainty given the current well locations and results in posterior estimates on global distributions of all modeled properties. This is achieved by transferring the joint prior parameter uncertainty through conditional simulations.     

Analysis of types and changes of village-level economy in rural Gongyi city,Henan Province since 1990

Based on the research on the rural living standard in China in terms of annual net income per capita, we define six types of village-level economy, i.e. ＂to be extremely poor＂, ＂to make a basic living＂, ＂to dress warmly and eat one＇s fill＂, ＂to try to enrich （to disengage poverty）＂, ＂to be well-off＂ and ＂to be affluent＂. The data of average annual net income of all the 292 villages between 1990 and 2004 in rural Gongyi City, Henan Province were collected, verified and classified. By using standard deviation, coefficient of variation and regression analysis, it is found that the Gongyi＇s rural economy has boosted up remarkably from the relative-poverty and absolute-poverty stages in 1990 to the well-off in 2004. However, the absolute differences between villages present a trend of enlargement, while the relative differences fluctuating. On the other hand, spatial analysis of village-level economy shows that most villages with relatively high economic development level were located along national expressway and most villages with absolute-poverty lay in remote mountainous areas in 1990. Since the 1990s, the rapid urbanization and industrialization have had strongly positive effects on rural economic growth. Initial economic foundation, natural resources and traditional techniques also contribute to village economy. From the perspective of geography, villages with location advantages, such as near urban center or industrial parks, have more chances for their economic development and the ＂core-periphery＂ economic structure has been presented in the process of rural development.