基于随机模拟的浑河冲洪积扇地区地下水压采风险预报

在分析随机因素对水位模拟结果影响程度的基础上建立地下水流随机模拟模型,可为地下水资源风险管理和决策提供重要依据。以浑河冲洪积扇地区为研究区,基于蒙特卡罗原理建立了区域地下水流随机预报模型,对压采条件下的地下水位上升进行风险预测和评价。参数灵敏度分析结果表明,地下水水位对含水层渗透系数的变化最敏感,其次是给水度,而对河床沉积物渗透系数和降雨入渗补给系数的灵敏性较差,且渗透系数和给水度在其率定值附近增加或减少时,灵敏度系数随之增加或减小。研究表明,压缩开采地下水资源能够有效缓解地下水水位下降带来的环境问题,地下水开采量以每年5%的速度压采时,区内地下水水位平均上涨3.3 m,但水位恢复的同时也可能诱发局部地下工程渗水,且地下建筑物的设计安全水位越低,渗水风险越大。     

时间非等步长灰色模型预测桩基承载力

根据灰色系统理论 ,首次建立了时间非等步长的桩基工程GM (1 1)模型 ,提出了时间非等步长的桩基工程GM(1 1)模型的检验方法。结合桩基试桩实践 ,表明由此模型计算所得的预测结果与实际结果吻合良好 ,并经过时间非等步长桩基工程GM (1 1)模型的精度检验 ,证明采用该方法进行桩基承载力预测所得的精度较高。为桩基工程承载力预测提供了一种新的、可靠的理论方法     

Hydromechanical modelling of the SEALEX experiments

Numerical modelling of coupled physical processes in bentonite–sand mixtures under the geological conditions is significant for designing and constructing sealing systems in deep underground repositories for highly radioactive nuclear waste. Within the framework of DECOVALEX 2015, Task A, this work presents the model validation of OpenGeoSys by numerical modelling of coupled hydromechanical (HM) processes in bentonite–sand mixtures. Parameters used in the HM model were determined by modelling the laboratory tests of the sealing experiment (SEALEX). Afterwards these parameters were applied for the modelling of a small-scale mock-up test considering the influence of technological gap and incidental fail of the seal in the sealing system. In order to investigate the availability of employing these HM parameters and numerical models directly to field predictions, the modelling results and measured data of an in situ SEALEX experiment were analysed comparatively. The modelling results reproduced well the main features in HM behaviour of the compacted bentonite–sand mixture, which denotes that the adopted HM models and parameters are adequate for describing the HM processes in the sealing system. It is necessary to take the elastoplastic behaviour and evolution of the permeability of bentonite–sand mixtures into account when using the adopted models to reproduce the HM processes of a sealing system.     

Changes of flow regimes and precipitation in Huai River Basin in the last half century

Huai River Basin, as the sixth largest river basin in China, has a high‐regulated river system and has been facing severe water problems. In this article, the changing patterns of runoff and precipitation at 10 hydrological stations from 1956 to 2000 on the highly regulated river (Shaying River) and less‐regulated river (Huai River) in the basin are evaluated at the monthly, seasonal and annual scales using the Mann–Kendall test and simple linear regression model. The results showed that: (1) No statistically significant trends of precipitation in the upper and middle Huai River Basins were detected at the annual scale, but the trend of annual runoff at Baiguishan, Zhoukou and Fuyang stations in Shaying River decreased significantly, whereas the others were not. Moreover, the decreasing trends of runoff for most months were significant in Shaying River, although the trend of monthly precipitation decreased significantly only in April in the whole research area and the number of months in the dry season having significantly decreasing trends in runoff was more than that in the wet season. (2) The rainfall–runoff relationship was significant in both highly regulated river and less‐regulated river. In regulated river, the reservoirs have larger regulation capacity than the floodgates and thus have the smaller correlation coefficient and t‐value. In Huai River, the correlation coefficients decreased from upper stream to downstream. (3) The regulation of dams and floodgates for flood control and water supply was the principal reason for the decreasing runoff in Huai River Basin, although the decreasing precipitation in April in this basin was statistically significant. The findings are useful for recognizing hydrology variation and will provide scientific foundation to integrated water resources management in Huai River Basin. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

秦岭造山带东江口花岗岩体群的地球化学研究及其构造环境

陕南秦岭造山带东江口花岗岩体群含磁铁矿极高,并含镁质黑云母,稀土元素负铕异常极不明显,氧同位素和锶初始比值都较低.因此,东江口岩体肛为一典型的Ⅰ型花岗岩.用数学地质和图解法与全球重要造山带花岗岩的地质地球化学特征类比后发现,本岩体群花岗岩为碰撞型花岗岩,是秦岭造山带碰撞造山的产物.据此分析了晚古生代秦岭造山带的演化.讨论了花岗岩成因类型与其构造环境的关系,认为碰撞型花岗岩既可是S型花岗岩,也可以是Ⅰ型花岗岩,这主要与花岗岩的源区岩石有关.而与构造环境没有必然的关系.     

马氏珠母贝黄壳色选系F1和养殖群体形态性状比较

<正>马氏珠母贝(Pinctada martensii)是我国南方养殖的一种重要经济贝类,长期以来一直是我国主要的海水育珠的主要贝类,用马氏珠母贝育珠是广东、广西和海南沿海部分地区经济发展的支柱性产业。近年来,我国海水珍珠的质量出现明显滑坡,严重地削弱了在国际市场上的竞争力。为提高海水珍珠质量和在国际市场上的竞争力,国内科技工作者已经进行了大量的研究工作,这些工作主要包括对马氏珠母贝养殖群体性状的改良、育珠技术的优化和海水珍珠形成机理的研究[1-5]。     

基于GeoEye-1和WorldView-2遥感数据的浅海水深反演比较研究

浅海区水深的精确反演对于海洋空间管理和生态环境保护至关重要。选取南海西沙群岛的羚羊礁海域为研究区,基于GeoEye-1和WorldView-2高分辨率多光谱遥感数据和实测水深数据,分别建立了单波段模型、多波段模型和波段比值模型。结果显示,由绿波段参与建立的水深反演模型相关性普遍较高,同时利用4个波段组合建立的多波段模型精度最高,相关系数分别达到了0.870和0.853。基于该模型的反演结果对GeoEye-1和WorldView-2遥感数据在不同水深范围内的反演精度进行比较,结果表明,两种数据在不同水深范围内的反演误差变化趋势一致,平均相对误差最大值均出现在0～5 m,而最小值均出现在20～25 m。总体而言,WorldView-2影像反演水深的精度高于GeoEye-1影像的反演精度。研究对于热带浅海区的水深反演工作具有一定的参考意义。     

Monitoring the Grassland Change in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau: A Case Study on Aba County

Located on the southeast edge of the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau, Aba County is the core area of the Returning Grazing Land to Grassland Project (RGLGP) on the plateau. For the purpose of monitoring the grassland change before and after the grassland protection project in Aba County, Landsat images acquired in 1996, 2003 and 2009 were analyzed. Using Spectral Mixture Analysis (SMA) model, sub-pixel fractions of land cover components were obtained: bright vegetation (BV), dark vegetation (DV), bright soil (BS), dark soil (DS) and water. Fraction images present the distribution and proportions of typical land cover components in this study. Fractions BV and BS were chosen as two indicators for grassland degradation. Thereafter, Change Vector Analysis (CVA) model was applied on the two indicators. After the performance of the CVA model, change results which consisted of both grassland degradation and vegetation re-growth were obtained, showing the change patterns of grassland degradation and vegetation re-growing in Aba County between two gaps: from 1996 to 2003 (before the RGLGP) and from 2003 to 2009 (after the RGLGP). The change patterns of grassland degradation and vegetation re-growing can effectively assist in the development of environmental restoration measures and in the RGLGP plans for the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau.     

滞弹性系统中对称扰动的涡度方程的特征分析

采用滞弹性近似下的三维中尺度大气动力学方程组,得到了滞弹性系统中对称扰动的涡度方程,并对涡度方程中各物理量进行分析。研究结果表明,相对于浅对流的情况而言,深对流情况下对称扰动的涡度方程较为复杂,滞弹性近似对于研究深对流运动是有效的。