中小流域入库径流影响因素的敏感性分析

根据鲇鱼山水库和陆浑水库实测的月平均流量、气温、降水量资料,采用Mann-Kendall趋势分析法、Spearman秩次相关检验、滑动t检验法对两座水库的入库流量进行显著性检验;建立了有关径流-降水-气温的数学模型,并对其敏感性进行了分析.研究结果表明:陆浑水库和鲇鱼山水库的入库流量对降水变化的响应比对气温变化的响应更为显著.入库流量与降水变化趋势一致,与气温变化趋势相反,即随降雨量的增加而增加,随气温的升高而减少.     

生态补偿机制中的企业责任研究

研究了企业在市场经济体制中的主体地位和企业承担的环境责任,通过对生态补偿的涵义和政策范围进行分析,明确了生态补偿与排污费、资源费之间的区别和联系,提出了完善企业履行生态补偿责任的政策框架、搭建企业履行生态补偿责任的职能体系及创新企业履行生态补偿责任执行形式的建议。     

用现今小震推断洪洞、临汾两次历史大震的震源断层

山西临汾地区是一个历史强震多发区，1303年和1695年发生了洪洞（M＝8）和临汾（M＝73／4）两次特大地震，这两次地震所在区域至今仍在持续不断的小地震活动，具有明显的大震区地震长期活动特征，我们对临汾无线传输地震台网记录的1987－1999年期间发生的1670次中，小地震重新进行了震源定位，根据对这些地震震源位置三维空间分布特征和震源机解制的分析，认为洪洞地震的震源断层应是长80km，埋深5－26km的NNE走向，高倾角的右旋走滑型断层，而临汾地震的震源断层是长70km，埋深5－22km的NWW走向，高倾角的左旋走滑型断层。这与洪洞，临汾两次大震极震区的等震线及该地区应力场的构造环境是吻合的。     

Comparative study of As,Cd, Cu,Cr, Mg,Mn, Ni,Pb and Zn concentrations between sediment and water from estuary and port

The contents of As, Cd, Cu, Cr, Mg, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn have been determined in sediment and water samples from Valle de las Garzas estuary and Port Manzanillo (Colima, Mexico) using ICP-AES. The concentrations of these elements were used for a comparative study to determine the distribution of heavy metals and to evaluate which elements reflect natural or anthropogenic backgrounds. For this purpose, seven sampling points were selected: Four of them correspond to the lagoon, and three were situated in the port. Statistical analysis of the mineral content was assessed. Initially, data comparison was assessed by statistical tests for each variable. Principal component analysis was then applied considering the influence of all variables at the same time by obtaining the distribution of samples according to their scores in the principal component space. In this way, four studies were carried out: (1) study of sediments collected during the dry season; (2) study of sediments collected during the rainy season; (3) comparative study between sediments from rainy and dry season; and (4) study of water composition collected during rainy season. From the results of the performed analyses, it can be concluded that metals distribution pattern reflected natural and anthropogenic backgrounds (e.g., sediments from the lagoon, situated at the beginning of the rain channel, presented high contents of Zn and Cu, perhaps related to anthropogenic activities or the influence of igneous sediments).     

Testing the suitability of frictional behaviour for pyroclastic flow simulation by comparison with a well-constrained eruption at Tungurahua volcano (Ecuador)

We use a well-monitored eruption of Tungurahua volcano to test the validity of the frictional behaviour, also called Mohr–Coulomb, which is generally used in geophysical flow modelling. We show that the frictional law is not appropriate for the simulation of pyroclastic flows at Tungurahua. With this law, the longitudinal shape of the simulated flows is a thin wedge of material progressively passing, over several hundreds of metres, from an unrealistic thickness at the front (<<1 mm) to some tens of centimetres. Simulated deposits form piles which accumulate at the foot of the volcano and are more similar to sand piles than natural pyroclastic deposits. Finally, flows simulated with a frictional rheology are not channelised by the drainage system, but affect all the flanks of the volcano. In addition, their velocity can exceed 150 m s⁻¹, allowing pyroclastic flows to cross interfluves at bends in the valley, affecting areas that would not have been affected in reality and leaving clear downstream areas that would be covered in reality. Instead, a simple empirical law, a constant retarding stress (i.e. a yield strength), involving only one free parameter, appears to be much better adapted for modelling pyroclastic flows. A similar conclusion was drawn for the Socompa debris avalanche simulation (Kelfoun and Druitt, J Geophys Res 110:B12202, 2005).     

Change of Support for Estimating Local Block Grade Distributions

An important aspect in mineral resource evaluation is the reduction of variance when post-processing the grade distributions defined on the support (volume) of the available data into distributions defined on the support of the proposed selective mining units. Although the volume-variance relationship is well understood for the estimation of global grade distributions, it is still an unsolved issue for local estimation studies based on non-parametric geostatistical methods, such as indicator kriging, for which the support correction is not inherent to the method. To clarify this relationship, the local change of support problem is examined in the scope of two parametric models (multi-Gaussian and discrete Gaussian models). It is shown that the variance reduction factor between point and block-support local distributions depends on the block being considered and is less than the global variance reduction factor. As a consequence, post-processing the local point-support grade distributions on the basis of the latter systematically understates the importance of the change of support at the local scale and makes selective mining appear more economically attractive than it really is. In the light of these results, a methodology is proposed to post-process the local point-support distributions obtained via non-parametric (indicator) methods into block-support distributions. An application to simulated data indicates that this methodology provides an accurate estimation at the block support when dealing with diffusion-type random fields.     

Steady critical discharge rates from vertical and horizontal wells in fresh–saline aquifers with sharp interfaces

In this study, the critical (or maximum) discharge rates before saline water enters a well were determined for vertical and horizontal wells in a freshwater aquifer which is separated from a static saline aquifer by a sharp interface. Flow around the well was solved by integration of a point sink solution along the well axis, and both the critical discharge rate and critical interface rise were determined through a comparison of the heads and vertical gradients at the saline–fresh water interface. The rates were determined for vertical and horizontal wells with various lengths and depths for different aquifer salinities. Results were generalized by drawing dimensionless type curves. The results showed that the dimensionless total critical discharge rates are higher for the longer horizontal wells and longer vertical wells with a certain bottom depth, and they almost linearly decrease with well depth at rates of 0.7–0.9. For the dimensionless well length of 0.2, the dimensionless total discharge rate of a horizontal well is about 0.1 more than that of a vertical well with the same length and well-top depth. Also, the critical discharge rates per unit length of well are inversely proportional to well length and remarkably higher for shallower wells. Additionally, the critical pumping rate is proportional to the salinity difference of the aquifers. These results were confirmed by comparison to existing solutions for vertical wells with dimensionless lengths of 0.2, 0.5 and 0.6, and for critical interface rises in the range of 0.75–0.9.     

Active and break spells of the Indian summer monsoon

In this paper, we suggest criteria for the identification of active and break events of the Indian summer monsoon on the basis of recently derived high resolution daily gridded rainfall dataset over India (1951–2007). Active and break events are defined as periods during the peak monsoon months of July and August, in which the normalized anomaly of the rainfall over a critical area, called the monsoon core zone exceeds 1 or is less than −1.0 respectively, provided the criterion is satisfied for at least three consecutive days. We elucidate the major features of these events. We consider very briefly the relationship of the intraseasonal fluctuations between these events and the interannual variation of the summer monsoon rainfall.     

Impact of climate change on hydrological processes over a basin scale in northern Taiwan

This study investigates the impact of climate change on rainfall, evapotranspiration, and discharge in northern Taiwan. The upstream catchment of the Shihmen reservoir in northern Taiwan was chosen as the study area. Both observed discharge and soil moisture were simultaneously adopted to optimize the HBV‐based hydrological model, clearly improving the simulation of the soil moisture. The delta change of monthly temperature and precipitation from the grid cell of GCMs (General Circulation Models) that is closest to the study area were utilized to generate the daily rainfall and temperature series based on a weather generating model. The daily rainfall and temperature series were further inputted into the calibrated hydrological model to project the hydrological variables. The studies show that rainfall and discharge will be increased during the wet season (May to October) and decreased during the dry season (November to April of the following year). Evapotranspiration will be increased in the whole year except in November and December. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Coupled surface water–groundwater model and its application in the arid Shiyang River basin,China

The planning and management of water resources in the Shiyang River basin, China require a tool for assessing the impact of groundwater and stream use on water supply reliabilities and improving many environment‐related problems such as soil desertification induced by recent water‐related human activities. A coupled model, integrating rule‐based lumped surface water model and distributed three‐dimensional groundwater flow model, has been established to investigate surface water and groundwater management scenarios that may be designed to restore the deteriorated ecological environment of the downstream portion of the Shiyang River basin. More than 66% of the water level among 24 observation wells have simulation error less than 1·0 m. The overall trend of the temporal changes of simulated and observed surface runoff at the Caiqi gauging station remains almost the same. The calibration was considered satisfactory. Initial frameworks for water allocation, including agricultural water‐saving projects, water diversion within the basin and inter‐basin water transfer, reducing agricultural irrigation area and surface water use instead of groundwater exploitation at the downstream were figured out that would provide a rational use of water resources throughout the whole basin. Sixteen scenarios were modelled to find out the most appropriate management strategies. The results showed that in the two selected management options, the groundwater budget at the Minqin basin was about 1·4 × 10⁸ m³/a and the ecological environment would be improved significantly, but the deficit existed at the Wuwei basin and the number was about 0·8 × 10⁸ m³/a. Water demand for domestic, industry and urban green area would be met in the next 30 years, but the water shortage for meeting the demand of agricultural water use in the Shiyang River basin was about 2·2 × 10⁸ m³/a. It is suggested that more inter‐basin water transfer should be required to obtain sustainable water resource use in the Shiyang River basin. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.