Time-dependent seismic hazard analysis for the Greater Tehran and surrounding areas

This study presents a time-dependent approach for seismic hazard in Tehran and surrounding areas. Hazard is evaluated by combining background seismic activity, and larger earthquakes may emanate from fault segments. Using available historical and paleoseismological data or empirical relation, the recurrence time and maximum magnitude of characteristic earthquakes for the major faults have been explored. The Brownian passage time (BPT) distribution has been used to calculate equivalent fictitious seismicity rate for major faults in the region. To include ground motion uncertainty, a logic tree and five ground motion prediction equations have been selected based on their applicability in the region. Finally, hazard maps have been presented.     

Review Paper: Post-stack 4D seismic time-shifts: Interpretation and evaluation

A review and analysis of post-stack time-lapse time-shifts has been carried out that covers published literature supplemented by in-house datasets available to the authors. Time-shift data are classified into those originating from geomechanical effects and those due to fluid saturation changes. From these data, conclusions are drawn regarding the effectiveness of post-stack time-shifts for overburden and reservoir monitoring purposes. A variety of field examples are shown that display the range and magnitude of variation for each class of application. The underlying physical mechanisms creating these time-shifts are then described, and linked to a series of generic and field-specific rock physics calculations that predict their magnitudes. These calculations serve as a guide for practitioners wishing to utilize this information on their own datasets. Conclusions are drawn regarding the reliability of this attribute for monitoring purposes, and the extent to which further development is required and how it should be reported by authors.     

An efficient tool for accelerating the numerical solution of the stochastic subsurface flow problem using neural networks

 An efficient numerical solution for the two-dimensional groundwater flow problem using artificial neural networks (ANNs) is presented. Under stationary velocity conditions with unidirectional mean flow, the conductivity realizations and the head gradients, obtained by a traditional finite difference solution to the flow equation, are given as input-output pairs to train a neural network. The ANN is trained successfully and a certain level of recognition of the relationship between input conductivity patterns and output head gradients is achieved. The trained network produced velocity realizations that are physically plausible without solving the flow equation for each of the conductivity realizations. This is achieved in a small fraction of the time necessary for solving the flow equations. The prediction accuracy of the ANN reaches 97.5% for the longitudinal head gradient and 94.7% for the transverse gradient. Head-gradient and velocity statistics in terms of the first two moments are obtained with a very high accuracy. The cross covariances between head gradients and the fluctuating log-conductivity (log-K) and between velocity and log-K obtained with the ANN approach match very closely those obtained by a traditional numerical solution. The same is true for the velocity components auto-covariances. The results are also extended to transport simulations with very good accuracy. Spatial moments (up to the fourth) of mean-concentration plumes obtained using ANNs are in very good agreement with the traditional Monte Carlo simulations. Furthermore, the concentration second moment (concentration variance) is very close between the two approaches. Considering the fact that higher moments of concentration need more computational effort in numerical simulations, the advantage of the presented approach in saving long computational times is evident. Another advantage of the ANNs approach is the ability to generalize a trained network to conductivity distributions different from those used in training. However, the accuracy of the approach in cases with higher conductivity variances is being investigated.     

Application of Multi-Criteria Decision-Making in Land Evaluation of Agricultural Land Use

The present study was carried out to evaluate agricultural capability of a watershed located in Khuzestan; a province in southern Iran. It is aimed to examine the applicability of Multi Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) methods in site selection process. Accordingly, the ecological resources of the watershed were initially identified. To specify the criteria required for agricultural land evaluation, Delphi method was applied. After selecting the criteria, they were weighted using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) Method. Weighted Overlay (WO) Method was also used to overlay the map layers in the GIS environment. Afterwards, sensitivity analysis was performed using Weights Sensitivity Analysis (WSA) method to show the impressibility rate of the results against a certain changes in the inputs. The results revealed that out of 6591.2 ha of the total watershed area, 50.8 % has unsuitable potentiality while 27.32 % has a poor suitability for irrigated agriculture. It was also determined that only 6.96 % of the whole study area has a suitable potential for this purpose. Besides, the findings indicated that 23.38 % of the total watershed area is unsuitable for rain-fed farming. the results also showed that 31.78 % and 19.12 % of the entire study area has moderate and high potentials for rain-fed agriculture, respectively. In a general overview, this study could present how MCDM is effective in handling land capability studies.     

Groundwater origins and mixing pattern in the multilayer aquifer system of the Gafsa-south mining district: a chemical and isotopic approach

Major ion geochemistry and environmental isotopes were used to identify the origins and the mineralisation processes of groundwater flowing within the three aquifer levels of the multilayer system of the Gafsa-south mining district (Southwestern Tunisia). It has been demonstrated that groundwaters are characterised by a Ca–Mg–SO₄ water type. Geochemical pattern is mainly controlled by the dissolution of halite, gypsum and/or anhydrite as well as by the incongruent dissolution of dolomite. δ¹⁸O and δ²H values are much lower than the isotopic signature of regional precipitation and fall close to the meteoric water lines, indicating that groundwaters have not been significantly affected by evaporation or mineral–water reactions. The distribution of stable and radiogenic isotopes (δ¹⁸O, δ²H, δ¹³C and ¹⁴C) within the aquifer levels suggests that the deep confined aquifer receives a significant modern recharge at higher altitudes, while, the shallow unconfined aquifer has been mainly recharged under cooler paleoclimatic condition, likely during Late Pleistocene and Early Holocene humid periods. However, waters from the intermediate confined/unconfined aquifer have composite isotopic signatures, highlighting that they are derived from a mixture of the two first end-members.