Spatial variations of fundamental seismotectonic parameters for the earthquake occurrences in the Eastern Mediterranean and Caucasus

Natural Hazards - In this study, a comprehensive statistical analysis was made for different parts of the world. For this purpose, fundamental seismotectonic earthquake parameters such as b-value,...     

Pulse-like ground motion observed during the 6 February 2023 MW7.8 Pazarcık Earthquake (Kahramanmaraş, SE Türkiye)

In this study, we analyzed 100 three-component strong ground motion records observed within 200 km of the causative fault of the 6 February 2023 M_W7.8 Pazarcık (Kahramanmaraş) Earthquake in SE Türkiye. The wavelet method was utilized to identify and analyze the characteristics of pulse-like ground motions in the near-fault region, while considering the uncertainty of the pulse orientation during the analysis. Our investigation focused on the effects of the focal mechanism and rupture process on the spatial distribution, pulse orientation, and maximum pulse direction of the observed pulse-like ground motion. We also analyzed the amplitude and period of the observed ground pulses and the effect of long-period amplification on the ground motion response spectra. Our results indicated the following: (1) A total of 21 typical ground velocity pulses were observed during this earthquake, exhibiting complex characteristics due to the influence of the strike-slip mechanism and rupture directivity. Most ground pulses (17 out of 21) were recorded within 20 km of the fault, in a wide range of orientations, including normal and parallel to the fault direction. The waveforms exhibited unidirectional features, indicating the effects of left-lateral fault slip. Distinct pulses observed more than 20 km from the fault were mainly oriented normal to the fault. The waveforms were bidirectional with double- or multi-round trips as a result of rupture directivity. (2) The amplitudes of the observed pulses ranged from 30.5 to 220.0 cm/s, with the largest peak velocity of 220.0 cm/s observed at Station 3138. The pulse periods ranged from 2.3 to 14.5 s, with the longest pulse period of 14.5 s observed at Station 3116. The amplitude and period of the pulses observed during this earthquake were comparable to those of similar-magnitude global earthquakes. The amplitude of the pulses decreased significantly with increasing fault distance, whereas the pulse period was not significantly affected by the fault distance. (3) Compared with non-pulse records, the velocity pulse records had a pronounced amplification effect on the acceleration response spectra near the pulse period, with factors ranging from 2.1 to 5.8. The larger velocity pulses also significantly amplified the velocity response spectra, particularly over the long periods. This significant amplification effect of the pulses on the response spectra leads to empirical models underestimating the long-period earthquake ground motion.     

Anthropogenic gadolinium as a microcontaminant in tap water used as drinking water in urban areas and megacities

Gadolinium chelates have been used since 1988 as contrast agents in magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), and produce positive anthropogenic Gd anomalies in rare earth element (REE) patterns of river and lake waters. These Gd compounds are not removed in wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) due to their high stabilities, and are transferred to surface waters with the clearwater discharge from WWTP. Through natural and induced bank filtration, the anthropogenic Gd is also transported into groundwater. To date, there are no related acute health risks known, but the potential long-term effects of exposure to low doses have not been studied.Here REE data is presented for tap water from the City of Berlin, Germany, a metropolitan area that is known for its anthropogenic Gd-rich rivers and groundwater. Natural and induced bank filtration play important roles in Berlin’s freshwater resource management. Therefore, the extent to which municipal tap water that is used as drinking water is affected by anthropogenic Gd was investigated. Large positive Gd anomalies were found in tap water samples from the western districts of Berlin, indicating the presence of up to 18 ng/L of anthropogenic Gd on top of a geogenic background of 0.54 ng/L. In marked contrast, the amount of anthropogenic Gd in tap water from the eastern districts of Berlin is negligible to minor (maximum of 0.18 ng/L on top of a geogenic background of 0.26 ng/L). This strong regional difference likely results from the specific historical situation of Berlin, where before the re-unification of Germany in 1990, natural and induced bank filtration were necessities in isolated West Berlin, but unimportant in East Berlin, a situation that has seen little change during the past 20 years. Thus, drinking water resources in the western part of Berlin are more strongly affected by anthropogenic Gd than those in the eastern part. The high anthropogenic Gd concentrations found in some tap waters in Berlin clearly show that the Gd initially used as contrast agent is removed neither during natural nor artificial water treatment. This is further evidence for the high stability and long environmental half-lives of these compounds. Considering that the amount of anthropogenic Gd in the Havel River in Berlin has increased more than 4-fold over the past 15 years and that water migration from the Havel River to the groundwater wells take years to decades, the amounts of anthropogenic Gd in West Berlin tap water will increase further over the next few years. Due to its presence in tap water that is consumed as drinking water, millions of people are exposed to low doses of these anthropogenic Gd chelates. Additional data for the City of London, UK, for example, indicate that this is not a local phenomenon confined to the City of Berlin, but rather a common feature of tap water in metropolitan areas and megacities in countries with highly developed health care systems. Hence, the REE distribution in tap waters used for human consumption should be monitored, especially since the anthropogenic Gd chelates can also be used as tracers for emerging microcontaminants such as steroids, pharmaceuticals and personal care products.     

Influence of the ore block model estimation on the determination of the mining cutoff grade policy for sustainable mine production

Strategic mine planning includes different cut-off grade policy depending on economic parameters of mining projects and grade–tonnage distribution of the deposit. Minimizing incorrect classification of ore and waste during grade–tonnage distribution is of critical importance for a mining operation. This article reviews the influence of the ore grade–tonnage distribution over the cut-off grade policy in a given mining operation. In this study, firstly, the interpolation parameters used to characterize the grade–tonnage distribution in the orebody are given. The resulting distribution of ore and waste is used to analyze uncertainty, risk impact, and to justify mine-planning decisions, according to the interpolation technique used and the number of geological settings and sampling scenarios being considered. Then, the working scheme of the cut-off grade policy and economic parameters are compared according to the resulting estimation from the inverse distance and the nearest neighbor methods.     

Performance of fine-grained soil treated with industrial wastewater sludge

This paper is likely one of the very recent researches based on an experimental study, which aims to investigate some geotechnical performances of fine-grained soil treated with industrial wastewater sludge. The experimental program conducts the standard compaction, direct shear, California bearing ratio (CBR), and unconfined compressive strength (UCS) tests. The sludge proportions in samples of the soil + sludge mixtures are 0, 5, 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, and 80 % by dry weight of the mixture. The results indicate that the internal friction angle of untreated soil is significantly enhanced at most of the sludge dosages (p < 0.05). The CBR values offer that the soil quality can be improved to “good” rating quality to use “base” layers in stabilizations up to the 50 % sludge dosage. The contribution is also obtained by the UCS values that increase with the sludge addition. Moreover, the stress–strain responses promise to develop the ductility behavior due to the sludge inclusion. Consequently, the soil mixtures treated with the sludge have exhibited satisfactory geotechnical characteristics. Thus, this study suggests that the industrial wastewater sludge can be potentially employed for improvement of fine-grained soil in the stabilizations. The proposed soil stabilization with locally available industrial wastewater sludge can also provide recycling and sustainability to the environment.     

Wavelet–copula‐based mutual information for rainfall forecasting applications

Under a climate change, the physical factors that influence the rainfall regime are diverse and difficult to predict. The selection of skilful inputs for rainfall forecasting models is, therefore, more challenging. This paper combines wavelet transform and Frank copula function in a mutual information‐based input variable selection (IVS) for non‐linear rainfall forecasting models. The marginal probability density functions (PDFs) of a set of potential rainfall predictors and the rainfall series (predictand) were computed using a wavelet density estimator. The Frank copula function was applied to compute the joint PDF of the predictors and the predictand from their marginal PDFs. The relationship between the rainfall series and the potential predictors was assessed based on the mutual information computed from their marginal and joint PDFs. Finally, the minimum redundancy maximum relevance was used as an IVS stopping criterion to determine the number of skilful input variables. The proposed approach was applied to four stations of the Nigerien Sahel with rainfall series spanning the period 1950–2016 by considering 24 climate indices as potential predictors. Adaptive neuro‐fuzzy inference system, artificial neural networks, and random forest‐based forecast models were used to assess the skill of the proposed IVS method. The three forecasting models yielded satisfactory results, exhibiting a coefficient of determination between 0.52 and 0.69 and a mean absolute percentage error varying from 13.6% to 21%. The adaptive neuro‐fuzzy inference system performed better than the other models at all the stations. A comparison made with KDE‐based mutual information showed the advantage of the proposed wavelet–copula approach.     

A quantitative appraisal of earthquake hazard parameters computed from Gumbel I method for different regions in and around Turkey

Useful information concerning the earthquake hazard parameters distributed in Turkey and the adjacent areas are estimated in the present work. Based on Gumbel’s I distribution parameters we are able to estimate the hazard values of the investigated area which are the mean return periods, the most probable maximum magnitude in the time period of t-years and the probability for an earthquake occurrence of magnitude ≥M during a time span of t-years. Figures concerning the spatial distribution of probabilities and the return periods are plotted and we considered them of particular interest for mapping the earthquake hazard in Turkey and the surrounding areas. These figures effectively produce a brief earthquake hazard atlas. The quantitative appraisal of the hazard parameters is useful for engineers, planners, etc., because it provides a tool for earthquake resistant design.     

Relationships Between Fundamental Seismic Hazard Parameters for the Different Source Regions in Turkey

Turkey has been divided into eight different seismic regions taking into consideration the tectonic environments and epicenters of the earthquakes to examine relationships of the modal values (a/b), the expected maximum magnitudes (M_max) and the maximum intensities (I_max). For this purpose, the earthquakes for the time period 1900–1992 from the Global Hypocenter Data Base CD-ROM prepared by USGS, and for the time period 1993–2001 from the PDE data and IRIS data are used. Concerning the relationships developed between different magnitude scales and between surface wave magnitudes (M_S) and intensity for different source regions in Turkey, we have constructed a uniform catalog of M_S. We have estimated the values of M_max and I_max using the Gumbel III asymptotic distribution. Highest a-values are observed in the Aegean region and the lowest b-values are estimated for the North Anatolian Fault. Maximum values of a/b, M_max and I_max are related to the eastern and western part of the North Anatolian Fault and the Aegean Arc. The lowest values of all parameters are observed near the Mid Anatolian Fault system. Linear relationships have been calculated between a/b, M_max and I_max using orthogonal regression. If one of the three parameters is computed, two other parameters can be calculated empirically using these linear relationships. Hazard maps of M_max and I_max values are produced using these relationships for a grid of equally spaced points at 1°. It is observed that the maps produced empirically may be used as a measure of seismic hazard in Turkey.