Technical note on a track-pattern-based model for predicting seasonal tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific

Recently, the National Typhoon Center (NTC) at the Korea Meteorological Administration launched a track-pattern-based model that predicts the horizontal distribution of tropical cyclone (TC) track density from June to October. This model is the first approach to target seasonal TC track clusters covering the entire western North Pacific (WNP) basin, and may represent a milestone for seasonal TC forecasting, using a simple statistical method that can be applied at weather operation centers. In this note, we describe the procedure of the track-pattern-based model with brief technical background to provide practical information on the use and operation of the model. The model comprises three major steps. First, long-term data of WNP TC tracks reveal seven climatological track clusters. Second, the TC counts for each cluster are predicted using a hybrid statistical-dynamical method, using the seasonal prediction of large-scale environments. Third, the final forecast map of track density is constructed by merging the spatial probabilities of the seven clusters and applying necessary bias corrections. Although the model is developed to issue the seasonal forecast in mid-May, it can be applied to alternative dates and target seasons following the procedure described in this note. Work continues on establishing an automatic system for this model at the NTC.     

Sea urchin development in a global change hotspot, potential for southerly migration of thermotolerant propagules

The distribution of the sea urchin Heliocidaris erythrogramma coincides with the southeast Australia global change hot spot where marine ecosystems are warming significantly due to changes in ocean circulation. To address questions on future vulnerabilities, the thermotolerance of the planktonic life phase of H. erythrogramma was investigated in the climate and regionally relevant setting of projected near-future (2100) ocean warming. Experimental treatments ranged from 18 to 26 °C, with 26 °C representing +3-4 °C above recent ambient sea-surface temperatures. Developmental success across all stages (gastrula, 24 h; larva, 72 h; juvenile, 120 h) decreased with increasing temperature. Development was tolerant to a +1-2 °C increase above ambient, but significant deleterious effects were evident at +3-4 °C. However, larvae that developed through the early bottleneck of normal development at 26 °C metamorphosed successfully. The inverse relationship between temperature and planktonic larval duration (PLD) was seen in a 25% decrease in the PLD of H. erythrogramma at 24 and 26^oC. Ocean warming may be advantageous to a subset of larvae through early settlement and reduction of the vulnerable planktonic period. This positive effect of temperature may help buffer the negative effects of ocean warming. In parallel studies with progeny derived from northern (Coffs Harbour) and southern (Sydney) H. erythrogramma, northern embryos had significantly higher thermotolerance. This provides the possibility that H. erythrogramma populations might keep up with a warming world through poleward migration of thermotolerant propagules, facilitated by the strong southward flow of the East Australian Current. It is uncertain whether H. erythrogramma populations at the northern range of this species, with no source of immigrants, will have the capacity to persist in a warm ocean. Due to its extensive latitudinal distribution, its potential developmental thermotolerance and independence of its lecithotrophic larvae from exogenous food and the need to make a functional skeleton, H. erythrogramma may be particularly robust to ocean change.     

Speciation and Mobility of Selected Trace Metals (As, Cu, Mn, Pb and Zn) in Sediment with Depth in Cam River-Mouth, Haiphong, Vietnam

The speciation and mobility of some selected trace metals (As, Cu, Mn, Pb and Zn) in sediments with depth was investigated in the Cam River-mouth (Vietnam) by collecting sediment cores and analysing porewater and sediment composition, complemented with single (ammonium-EDTA) and sequential (BCR 3-step) extractions and mineralogical analysis (XRD). All trace metals show overall decreasing trends with depth in porewater as a result of anthropogenic input in upper sediment layers. High porewater concentrations of As, Mn and Pb in oxic and suboxic sediment layers may result in groundwater pollution. Sediment-bound Pb and Mn dominate in the reducible and the acid-soluble fraction, respectively, while Cu and Zn distribute rather evenly between four extracted fractions. The porewater metal speciation, as predicted by a geochemical model Visual MINTEQ version 3.0, indicates that the toxicity of Cu, Mn, Pb and Zn (presented by the proportions of free metal ions) decreases with depth, while the toxicity of As increases when As(III) becomes more abundant. The dissolved concentrations of trace metals are not only controlled by the precipitation/dissolution of discrete hydroxide/oxide, carbonate and phosphate minerals, but also by sorption processes on major sorbents (i.e. As on goethite, and Mn and Zn on calcite and dolomite). Sulphide minerals do not show any control even in the anoxic zone most likely because of the low concentration of sulphur.     

Investigation of the 20 August 2005 fatal landslide at Fu Yung Shan Tsuen, Hong Kong

On 20 August 2005, a landslide with a volume of about 400  m³ occurred at Fu Yung Shan Tsuen, Tsuen Wan in Hong Kong during a severe rainstorm with a return period of about 100  years on a hillside that has been disturbed locally by past human activities. The incident resulted in one fatality and permanent evacuation of residents of four squatter structures in the vicinity. A forensic investigation into the landslide was carried out to review the mechanism and probable causes of the landslide. The key contributory factors in the landslide were diagnosed. The investigation concluded that the landslide was probably caused by the loss of soil suction and transient build-up of groundwater pressure in the near-surface soil materials following prolonged and intense rainfall. The paper presents the methodology adopted for the landslide study, findings of the investigation and the lessons learnt from this fatal landslide.     

Estimating landslide susceptibility areas considering the uncertainty inherent in modeling methods

Landslides are one of the most dangerous types of natural disasters, and damage due to landslides has been increasing in certain regions of the world because of increased precipitation. Policy decision makers require reliable information that can be used to establish spatial adaptation plans to protect people from landslide hazards. Researchers presently identify areas susceptible to landslides using various spatial distribution models. However, such data are associated with a high amount of uncertainty. This study focuses on quantifying the uncertainty of several spatial distribution models and identifying the effectiveness of various ensemble methods that can be used to provide reliable information to support policy decisions. The area of study was Inje-gun, Republic of Korea. Ten models were selected to assess landslide susceptibility. Moreover, five ensemble methods were selected for the aggregated results of the 10 models. The uncertainty was quantified using the coefficient of variation and the uncertainty map we developed revealed areas with strongly differing values among single models. A matrix map was created using an ensemble map and a coefficient of variation map. Using matrix analysis, we identified the areas that are most susceptible to landslides according to the ensemble model with a low uncertainty. Thus, the ensemble model can be a useful tool for supporting decision makers. The framework of this study can also be employed to support the establishment of landslide adaptation plans in other areas of the Republic of Korea and in other countries.     

Phytoplankton Biomass and Production in Subtropical Hong Kong Waters: Influence of the Pearl River Outflow

The size-fractionated phytoplankton biomass and primary production were investigated in four contrasting areas of Hong Kong waters in 2006. Phytoplankton biomass and production varied seasonally in response to the influence of the Pearl River discharge. In the dry season, the phytoplankton biomass and production were low (<42 mg chl m⁻² and <1.8 g C m⁻² day⁻¹) in all four areas, due to low temperatures and dilution and reduced light availability due to strong vertical mixing. In contrast, in the wet season, in the river-impacted western areas, the phytoplankton biomass and production increased greater than five-fold compared to the dry season, especially in summer. In summer, algal biomass was 15-fold higher than in winter, and the mean integrated primary productivity (IPP) was 9 g C m⁻² day⁻¹ in southern waters due to strong stratification, high temperatures, light availability, and nutrient input from the Pearl River estuary. However, in the highly flushed western waters, chl a and IPP were lower (<30 mg m⁻² and 4 g C m⁻² day⁻¹, respectively) due to dilution. The maximal algal biomass and primary production occurred in southern waters with strong stratification and less flushing. Spring blooms (>10 μg chl a L⁻¹) rarely occurred despite the high chl-specific photosynthetic rate (mostly >10 μg C μg chl a ⁻¹ day⁻¹) as the accumulation of algal biomass was restricted by active physical processes (e.g., strong vertical mixing and freshwater dilution). Phytoplankton biomass and production were mostly dominated by the >5-μm size fraction all year except in eastern waters during spring and mostly composed of fast-growing chain-forming diatoms. In the stratified southern waters in summer, the largest algal blooms occurred in part due to high nutrient inputs from the Pearl River estuary.     

A Spatial-Temporal/3-D Model for Volcanic Hazard Assessment: Application to the Yucca Mountain Region, Nevada

We present a 3-D Poisson model that permits identification and quantification of volcanic phenomena distributed through space and evolving in time (i.e., spatiotemporal data). Specifically, the model: (1) is volcanologically informative in solving problems of volcanic risk/hazard which depends on the location and time of future events; (2) contains model fitting computation algorithms that are efficient; and (3) is flexible enough to handle a large class of volcanic risk/hazard studies. Furthermore, we apply the model fitting techniques developed in this paper to the volcanic data from the Yucca Mountain project to demonstrate a unified volcanic hazard analysis. This study also evaluates the sensitivity of the statistical models developed by experts who have addressed the volcanic hazard/risk assessment problem near the Yucca Mountain region.     

Molecular clouds around outflow sources

The (J, K)=(1,1) ammonia transition emission has been observed toward six regions with signs of active star formation (AFGL 5142, HH 33/40, AFGL 5157, AFGL 6366S, HHL 73, and S140N), using the 37 m antenna of the Haystack Observatory. We detected and mapped the ammonia emission in all of these sources with the exception of HH 33/40. The (J, K)-(2,2), ammonia transition was also observed at the peak position of each source in order to obtain the rotational temperature of the ammonia clumps.Paper presented at the 11th European regional Astronomical Meetings of the IAU on New Windows to the Universe, held 3–8 July, 1989, Tenerife, Canary Islands, Spain.     

First record of three barracudina fishes (Aulopiformes: Teleostei) in Korean waters

Three barracudina fishes (Paralepididae) were newly recorded from the southern sea of Korea. Lestidium prolixum is characterized by a single band of luminous ducts on the midventral line and absence of a papilla anterior to the eye. Lestrolepis intermedia and L. japonica are similar in having a black papilla immediately in front of the eye and two bands of luminous ducts on the midventral line. However, the dorsal fin of L. intermedia is located more posterior along the body than that of L. japonica, and L. intermedia have larger number of anal fin rays 42 (vs. 36–40) and vertebrae 95 (vs. 86–87) than L. japonica.