The potential of vegetation feedback to alleviate climate aridity over the United States associated with a 2×CO2 climate condition

This study examines the potential impact of vegetation feedback on changes in summer climate aridity over the contiguous United States (US) due to the doubling of atmospheric CO₂ concentration using a set of 100-year-long climate simulations made by a global climate model interactively coupled with a dynamic vegetation model. The Thornthwaite moisture index (I _m ), which quantifies climate aridity on the basis of atmospheric water supply (i.e., precipitation) and atmospheric water demand (i.e., potential evapotranspiration, PET), is used to measure climate aridity. Warmer atmosphere and drier surface resulting from increased CO₂ concentration increase climate aridity over most of the contiguous US. This phenomenon is due to larger increments in PET than in precipitation, regardless of the presence or absence of vegetation feedback. Compared to simulations without active dynamic vegetation feedback, the presence of vegetation feedback significantly alleviates the increase in aridity. This vegetation-feedback effect is most noticeable in the subhumid regions such as southern, midwestern and northwestern US, primarily by the increasing vegetation greenness. In these regions, the greening in response to warmer temperatures enhances moisture transfer from soil to atmosphere by evapotranspiration (ET). The increased ET and subsequent moistening over land areas result in weaker surface warming (1–2?K) and PET (3–10?mm?month^?1), and greater precipitation (4–10?mm?month^?1). Collectively, they result in moderate increases in I _m . Our results suggest that moistening by enhanced vegetation feedback may prevent aridification under climatic warming especially in areas vulnerable to climate change, with consequent implications for mitigation strategies.     

A Quantitative Insight into the Dependence Dynamics of the Kilauea and Mauna Loa Volcanoes,Hawaii

Hawaiian volcanoes such as Kilauea and Mauna Loa have drawn the attention of researchers for quite some time and numerous theories abound hinting at a possible inverse relationship between the two. Most of these analyses are intrinsically qualitative and are bereft of data-driven statistical justification. The present work attempts to address this issue adopting a more mathematical approach and endeavours to examine the existence of such a relationship through the novel use of a smoothing statistic termed as the empirical recurrence rates ratio. Additionally, it is shown that useful knowledge about the possible interplay between these two volcanoes is coded into this single statistic and based on it; construction of new dependence measures such as the two introduced, becomes simpler and much more intuitive. The recent decade is witnessing an increased activity of Kilauea and the methods proposed here can be successfully implemented to safeguard human lives and property against the unpredictable advances of all-engulfing molten lava flow.     

Measurements of Rare Earth Element and Other Element Mass Fractions in Environmental Reference Materials (NIST SRM 1646a,NIST SRM 1400, IAEA‐395 and IAEA‐450) by INAA,ICP‐AES and ICP‐MS

INAA, ICP‐AES and ICP‐MS were used to elementally characterise four environmental reference materials – NIST SRM 1646a (Estuarine Sediment), NIST SRM 1400 (Bone Ash), IAEA‐395 (Urban Dust) and IAEA‐450 (Algae). An analytical scheme consisting of the three methods was first applied to NIST SRM 1646a to validate the methodology because it has been extensively analysed and has certified values for many elements. With repeated analyses of NIST SRM 1646a, the accuracy and measurement repeatability of the data obtained were evaluated based on two statistical calculations (zeta‐score and Horwitz ratio) and were observed to be good enough for the analytical scheme to be applied to similar sorts of environmental/geochemical samples. Applying the same approach to NIST SRM 1400, IAEA‐395 and IAEA‐450, enabled mass fractions of 29, 38 and 28 elements to be determined, respectively. Among these results, the data for rare earth elements are of particular interest, not only for IAEA‐450 but also for the other three reference samples. The data for Pr, Gd, Dy, Ho, Er and Tm in NIST SRM 1646a are newly reported in this study. By using small test portions (< 100 mg) for NIST SRM 1646a and IAEA‐395, and recommended minimum amounts for NIST SRM 1400 and IAEA‐450, sample homogeneity was evaluated.     

Three-dimensional finite element analysis for soil slopes stabilisation using piles

This paper presents the analytical methods of slope-stabilising piles using the three-dimensional (3-D) finite element (FE) analysis with the strength reduction method (SRM). This 3-D FE model is employed to overcome the limitations observed in two-dimensional (2-D) FE analysis. The solutions obtained from 3-D FE analyses are verified to be less conservative in this paper. The 3-D analysis is considered to be of particular importance to pile-slope problems. The soil that flows between piles cannot be taken account properly in the 2-D FE analysis. The method adopted in this paper can avoid the assumption of soil movement and the pressure distribution along the piles subjected to soil movement. The numerical analysis employs the Mohr–Coulomb failure criterion with the strength reduction technique for soil and an elastic member for piles. The spacing effect of the pile is considered in the 3-D model, the S/D (S: centre to centre, D: diameter of pile) ratio, equal to 4.0, is found to be equivalent to the single pile stabilisation. The middle portion of the slope is identified as the optimal location to place the piles. The proper length of the pile, which can be used to stabilise the slope, is also examined using 3-D FE analyses. It is concluded that L/H greater or equal 0.70 is recommended (L: pile length, H: slope height). The numerical analyses are conducted based on a coupled analysis, which simultaneously considers both the slope stability and the pile response. The failure mechanisms of the pile-slope system subjected to the pile locations, pile head conditions and pile length are each discussed. The contact pressure, shear force and moment along the piles are presented to illustrate the pile stabilising mechanism herein.     

The effect of toxic sulfide exposure on oxygen consumption and oxidation products in Urechis unicinctus (Echiura: Urechidae)

To investigate sulfide detoxification in Urechis unicinctus,oxygen consumption rate and sulfide detoxification productswere analyzed during sulfide exposure under controlled laboratory conditions.The results showed that oxygen consumption rateswere elevated significantly during 3 h sulfide exposure compared to the control(P0.05).The concentration of sulfite in body walland hindgut of experimental worms increased significantly(P0.05)when exposed to 50μmolL-1sulfide,reached a maximum at24 h and then decreased.Similar result was observed in worms exposed to 150μmolL-1sulfide except that sulfite concentrationreached a maximum at 12 h.Contents of thiosulfate in body wall and hindgut of U.unicinctus exposed to sulfide were also significantly higher than that of the control without sulfide exposure.In conclusion,during short-time sulfide exposure U.unicinctus mayraise oxygen consumption to detoxify toxic sulfide into sulfite and thiosulfate.Sulfide detoxification was restrained when the expo-sure time was prolonged or sulfide concentration was increased,which was indicated by decrease of sulfite,the intermediate productof sulfide detoxification.     

Analysis of runoff in ungauged mountain watersheds in Sichuan, China using kinematic-wave-based GIUH model

Floods are one of the most common natural hazards occurring all around the world. However, the knowledge of the origins of a food and its possible magnitude in a given region remains unclear yet. This lack of understanding is particularly acute in mountainous regions with large degrees in Sichuan Province, China, where runoff is seldom measured. The nature of streamflow in a region is related to the time and spatial distribution of rainfall quantity and watershed geomorphology. The geomorphologic characteristics are the channel network and surrounding landscape which transform the rainfall input into an output hydrograph at the outlet of the watershed. With the given geomorphologic properties of the watershed, theoretically the hydrological response function can be determined hydraulically without using any recorded data of past rainfall or runoff events. In this study, a kinematic-wave-based geomorphologic instantaneous unit hydrograph (KW-GIUH) model was adopted and verified to estimate runoff in ungauged areas. Two mountain watersheds, the Yingjing River watershed and Tianquan River watershed in Sichuan were selected as study sites. The geomorphologic factors of the two watersheds were obtained by using a digital elevation model (DEM) based on the topographic database obtained from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission of US’s NASA. The tests of the model on the two watersheds were performed both at gauged and ungauged sites. Comparison between the simulated and observed hydrographs for a number of rainstorms at the gauged sites indicated the potential of the KW-GIUH model as a useful tool for runoff analysis in these regions. Moreover, to simulate possible concentrated rainstorms that could result in serious flooding in these areas, synthetic rainfall hyetographs were adopted as input to the KW-GIUH model to obtain the flow hydrographs at two ungauged sites for different return period conditions. Hydroeconomic analysis can be performed in the future to select the optimum design return period for determining the flood control work.     

Seismic performance of a 1 : 15‐scale 25‐story RC flat‐plate core‐wall building model

Earthquake simulation tests were conducted on a 1 : 15‐scale 25‐story building model to verify the seismic performance of high‐rise reinforced‐concrete flat‐plate core‐wall building structures designed per the recent seismic code KBC 2009 or IBC 2006. The following conclusions can be drawn from the test results: (1) The vertical distribution of acceleration during the table excitations revealed the effect of the higher modes, whereas free vibration after the termination of the table excitations was governed by the first mode. The maximum values of base shear and roof drift during the free vibration are either similar to or larger than the values of the maximum responses during the table excitation. (2) With a maximum roof drift ratio of 0.7% under the maximum considered earthquake in Korea, the lateral stiffness degraded to approximately 50% of the initial stiffness. (3) The crack modes appear to be a combination of flexure and shear in the slab around the peripheral columns and in the coupling beam. Energy dissipation via inelastic deformation was predominant during free vibration after the termination of table excitation rather than during table excitation. Finally, (4) the walls with special boundary elements in the first story did not exhibit any significant inelastic behavior, with a maximum curvature of only 21% of the ultimate curvature, corresponding to an ultimate concrete compressive strain of 0.00638 m/m intended in the displacement‐based design approach. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Temporal and spatial variations in nutrient stoichiometry and regulation of phytoplankton biomass in Hong Kong waters: influence of the Pearl River outflow and sewage inputs

In 2001, the Hong Kong government implemented the Harbor Area Treatment Scheme (HATS) under which 70% of the sewage that had been formerly discharged into Victoria Harbor is now collected and sent to Stonecutters Island Sewage Works where it receives chemically enhanced primary treatment (CEPT), and is then discharged into waters west of the Harbor. The relocation of the sewage discharge will possibly change the nutrient dynamics and phytoplankton biomass in this area. Therefore, there is a need to examine the factors that regulate phytoplankton growth in Hong Kong waters in order to understand future impacts. Based on a historic nutrient data set (1986-2001), a comparison of ambient nutrient ratios with the Redfield ratio (N:P:Si=16:1:16) showed clear spatial variations in the factors that regulate phytoplankton biomass along a west (estuary) to east (coastal/oceanic) transect through Hong Kong waters. Algal biomass was constrained by a combination of low light conditions, a rapid change in salinity, and strong turbulent mixing in western waters throughout the year. Potential stoichiometric Si limitation (up to 94% of the cases in winter) occurred in Victoria Harbor due to the contribution of sewage effluent with high N and P enrichment all year, except for summer when the frequency of stoichiometric Si limitation (48%) was the same as P, owing to the influence of the high Si in the Pearl River discharge. In the eastern waters, potential N limitation and N and P co-limitation occurred in autumn and winter respectively, because of the dominance of coastal/oceanic water with low nutrients and low N:P ratios. In contrast, potential Si limitation occurred in spring and a switch to potential N, P and Si limitation occurred in eastern waters in summer. In southern waters, there was a shift from P limitation (80%) in summer due to the influence of the N-rich Pearl River discharge, to N limitation (68%) in autumn, and to N and P co-limitation in winter due to the dominance of N-poor oceanic water from the oligotrophic South China Sea. Our results show clear temporal and spatial variations in the nutrient stoichiometry which indicates potential regulation of phytoplankton biomass in HK waters due to the combination of the seasonal exchange of the Pearl River discharge and oceanic water, sewage effluent inputs, and strong hydrodynamic mixing from SW monsoon winds in summer and the NE monsoon winds in winter.     

Technical note on a track-pattern-based model for predicting seasonal tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific

Recently, the National Typhoon Center (NTC) at the Korea Meteorological Administration launched a track-pattern-based model that predicts the horizontal distribution of tropical cyclone (TC) track density from June to October. This model is the first approach to target seasonal TC track clusters covering the entire western North Pacific (WNP) basin, and may represent a milestone for seasonal TC forecasting, using a simple statistical method that can be applied at weather operation centers. In this note, we describe the procedure of the track-pattern-based model with brief technical background to provide practical information on the use and operation of the model. The model comprises three major steps. First, long-term data of WNP TC tracks reveal seven climatological track clusters. Second, the TC counts for each cluster are predicted using a hybrid statistical-dynamical method, using the seasonal prediction of large-scale environments. Third, the final forecast map of track density is constructed by merging the spatial probabilities of the seven clusters and applying necessary bias corrections. Although the model is developed to issue the seasonal forecast in mid-May, it can be applied to alternative dates and target seasons following the procedure described in this note. Work continues on establishing an automatic system for this model at the NTC.