Debris-flow simulations on Cheekye River, British Columbia

Cheekye River fan is the best-studied fan complex in Canada. The desire to develop portions of the fan with urban housing triggered a series of studies to estimate debris-flow risk to future residents. A recent study (Jakob and Friele 2010) provided debris-flow frequency-volume and frequency-discharge data, spanning 20-year to 10,000-year return periods that form the basis for modeling of debris flows on Cheekye River. The numerical computer model FLO-2D was chosen as a modelling tool to predict likely flow paths and to estimate debris-flow intensities for a spectrum of debris-flow return periods. The model is calibrated with the so-called Garbage Dump debris flow that occurred some 900  years ago. Field evidence suggests that the Garbage Dump debris flow has a viscous flow phase that deposited a steep-sided debris plug high in organics in centre fan, which then deflected a low-viscosity afterflow that travelled to Squamish River with slowly diminishing flow depths. The realization of a two-phase flow led to a modelling approach in which the debris-flow hydrograph was split into a high viscosity and low viscosity phase that were modelled in chronologic sequence as two separate and independent modelling runs. A perfect simulation of the Garbage Dump debris flow with modelling is not possible because the exact topography at the time of the event is, to some degree, speculative. However, runout distance, debris deposition and deposit thickness are well known and serve as a good basis for calibration. Predictive analyses using the calibrated model parameters suggest that, under existing conditions, debris flows exceeding a 50-year return period are likely to avulse onto the southern fan sector, thereby damaging existing development and infrastructure. Debris flows of several thousand years return period would inundate large portions of the fan, sever Highway 99, CN Rail, and the Squamish Valley road and would impact existing housing development on the fan. These observations suggest a need for debris-flow mitigation for existing and future development alike.     

The environment of Upper Palaeolithic (Magdalenian and Azilian) hunters at Hauterive‐Champréveyres,Neuchâtel,Switzerland, interpreted from coleopteran remains

An excavation primarily intended to investigate the Bronze Age deposits at Hautrive‐Champréveyres, Neuchâtel, Switzerland, encountered beneath the Bronze Age levels a sequence of Late‐glacial sediments that were deposited between about 13000 yr BP and 11800 yr BP. Within these deposits Upper Palaeolithic hearths, bones and flint implements were found in a context that left no doubt that they accumulated on the actual living floors. Two separate cultures were involved; an earlier Magdalenian one overlain by a rather later Azilian assemblage. Coleoptera from the associated organic silts and sands provide detailed ecological and climatic information about the time when these people lived in the area. Radiocarbon dates indicate that the Magdalenians lived in the area at about 13000 yr BP. The Coleoptera show that the mean July temperature at this time was about 9°C and mean temperature of the coldest month was about −25°C. The landscape was bare of trees with an open patchy vegetation. Shortly after the area was abandoned by the Magdalenian hunters, the climate became suddenly warmer and mean July temperatures rose abruptly to at least 16°C and winter temperatures rose to levels not much different from those of the present day. There is evidence that at this time, intense slope instability and mud flows may have rendered the locality unsuitable for human occupation. About seven centuries after the episode of sudden climatic warming, namely at about 12300 yr BP, palaeolithic Azilian hunters occupied the area at a time when the climate was thoroughly temperate and the landscape was clothed in birch and willow woodland. This was gradually replaced by pine forest at the top of the sequence and Late‐glacial deposition ceased by about 11800 yr BP. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The impact of changing climate on phenology,productivity, and benthic–pelagic coupling in Narragansett Bay

The timing and magnitude of phytoplankton blooms have changed markedly in Narragansett Bay, RI (USA) over the last half century. The traditional winter–spring bloom has decreased or, in many years, disappeared. Relatively short, often intense, diatom blooms have become common in spring, summer, and fall replacing the summer flagellate blooms of the past. The annual and summer mean abundance (cell counts) and biomass (chl a) of phytoplankton appear to have decreased based on almost 50 years of biweekly monitoring by others at a mid bay station. These changes have been related to warming of the water, especially during winter, and to increased cloudiness. A significant decline in the winter wind speed may also have played a role. The changes in the phenology of the phytoplankton and the oligotrophication of the bay appear to have decreased greatly the quantity and (perhaps) quality of the organic matter being deposited on the bottom of the bay. This decline has resulted in a very much reduced benthic metabolism as reflected in oxygen uptake, nutrient regeneration, and the magnitude and direction of the net flux of N₂ gas. Based on many decades of standard weekly trawls carried out by the Graduate School of Oceanography, the winter biomass of bottom feeding epibenthic animals has also declined sharply at the mid bay station. After decades of relatively constant anthropogenic nitrogen loading (and declining phosphorus loading), the fertilization of the bay will soon be reduced during May–October due to implementation of advanced wastewater treatment. This is intended to produce an oligotrophication of the urban Providence River estuary and the Upper Bay. The anticipated decline in the productivity of the upper bay region will probably decrease summer hypoxia in that area. However, it may have unanticipated consequences for secondary production in the mid and lower bay where climate-induced oligotrophication has already much weakened the historically strong benthic–pelagic coupling.     

Hydroclimatic and channel snowpack controls over suspended sediment and grain size transport in a High Arctic catchment

Temporal variability in suspended sediment delivery processes was studied during three seasons in a 7·9 km² catchment at Cape Bounty, Melville Island, Nunavut in the Canadian High Arctic. Discharge was controlled primarily by the magnitude of snowmelt, with limited inputs from ground ice melt and precipitation. Years with greater snowpack non‐linearly increased sediment yield and resulted in seasonal counter‐clockwise hysteresis, while a year with low snowpack resulted in reduced sediment yield and clockwise hysteresis, and indicates that sediment was increasingly available after the onset of streamflow. In addition to the event‐scale hysteresis observed during the nival discharge peak, diurnal clockwise hysteresis was observed during all three seasons and suggests daily exhaustion of sediment supplies. These results indicate that the channel snowpack plays a primary role over sediment accessibility during the nival discharge peak. Similarly, grain size analysis of suspended material in the river showed that the coarsest mean grain size was transported during the early phase of peak nival discharge and indicates that isolated sources of coarse material were being accessed by high velocity flow. Snowpack is present through the peak nival period and conditions sediment availability by isolating channel sediments from high‐energy flow. These results indicate sediment delivery characteristics in small High Arctic catchments reflect complex interactions with channel snowpack and disproportionate responses to flow conditions that differ from glacial and temperate settings. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

TOMS measurement of the sulfur dioxide emitted during the 1985 Nevado del Ruiz eruptions

The eruptions of Nevado del Ruiz in 1985 were unusually rich in sulfur dioxide. These eruptions were observed with the Nimbus 7 Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) which can quantitatively map volcanic sulfur dioxide plumes on a global scale. A small eruption, originally believed to be of phreatic origin, took place on September 11, 1985. However, substantial amounts of sulfur dioxide from this eruption were detected with TOMS on the following day. The total mass of SO₂, approximately 9 ± 3 × 10⁴ metric tons, was deposited in two clouds, one in the upper troposphere, the other possibly at 15 km near the stratosphere.The devastating November 13 eruptions were first observed with TOMS at 1150 EST on November 14. Large amounts of sulfur dioxide were found in an arc extending 1100 km from south of Ruiz northeastward to the Gulf of Venezuela and as an isolated cloud centered at 7°N on the Colombia-Venezuela border. On November 15 the plume extended over 2700 km from the Pacific Ocean off the Colombia coast to Barbados, while the isolated mass was located over the Brazil-Guyana border, approximately 1600 km due east of the volcano. Based on wind data from Panama, most of the sulfur dioxide was located at 10–16 km in the troposphere and a small amount was quite likely deposited in the stratosphere at an altitude above 24 km.The total mass of sulfur dioxide in the eruption clouds was approximately 6.6 ± 1.9 × 10⁵ metric tons on November 14. When combined with quiescent sulfur dioxide emissions during this period, the ratio of sulfur dioxide to erupted magma from Ruiz was an order of magnitude greater than in the 1982 eruption of El Chichon or the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens.     

Quantifying River‐Groundwater Interactions of New Zealand's Gravel‐Bed Rivers: The Wairau Plain

New Zealand's gravel‐bed rivers have deposited coarse, highly conductive gravel aquifers that are predominantly fed by river water. Managing their groundwater resources is challenging because the recharge mechanisms in these rivers are poorly understood and recharge rates are difficult to predict, particularly under a more variable future climate. To understand the river‐groundwater exchange processes in gravel‐bed rivers, we investigate the Wairau Plain Aquifer using a three‐dimensional groundwater flow model which was calibrated using targeted field observations, “soft” information from experts of the local water authority, parameter regularization techniques, and the model‐independent parameter estimation software PEST. The uncertainty of simulated river‐aquifer exchange flows, groundwater heads, spring flows, and mean transit times were evaluated using Null‐space Monte‐Carlo methods. Our analysis suggests that the river is hydraulically perched (losing) above the regional water table in its upper reaches and is gaining downstream where marine sediments overlay unconfined gravels. River recharge rates are on average 7.3 m³/s, but are highly dynamic in time and variable in space. Although the river discharge regularly hits 1000 m³/s, the net exchange flow rarely exceeds 12 m³/s and seems to be limited by the physical constraints of unit‐gradient flux under disconnected rivers. An important finding for the management of the aquifer is that changes in aquifer storage are mainly affected by the frequency and duration of low‐flow periods in the river. We hypothesize that the new insights into the river‐groundwater exchange mechanisms of the presented case study are transferable to other rivers with similar characteristics.     

Late Quaternary distal tephra-fall deposits in lacustrine sediments, Kenai Peninsula, Alaska

Tephra-fall deposits from Cook Inlet volcanoes were detected in sediment cores from Tustumena and Paradox Lakes, Kenai Peninsula, Alaska, using magnetic susceptibility and petrography. The ages of tephra layers were estimated using 21 ¹⁴C ages on macrofossils. Tephras layers are typically fine, gray ash, 1-5 mm thick, and composed of varying proportions of glass shards, pumice, and glass-coated phenocrysts. Of the two lakes, Paradox Lake contained a higher frequency of tephra (0.8 tephra/100 yr; 109 over the 13,200-yr record). The unusually large number of tephra in this lake relative to others previously studied in the area is attributed to the lake's physiography, sedimentology, and limnology. The frequency of ash fall was not constant through the Holocene. In Paradox Lake, tephra layers are absent between ca. 800-2200, 3800-4800, and 9000-10,300 cal yr BP, despite continuously layered lacustrine sediment. In contrast, between 5000 and 9000 cal yr BP, an average of 1.7 tephra layers are present per 100 yr. The peak period of tephra fall (7000-9000 cal yr BP; 2.6 tephra/100 yr) in Paradox Lake is consistent with the increase in volcanism between 7000 and 9000 yr ago recorded in the Greenland ice cores.     

Combining regression and spatial proximity for catchment model regionalization: a comparative study

Abstract

Spatial error regression is employed to regionalize the parameters of a rainfall–runoff model. The approach combines regression on physiographic watershed characteristics with a spatial proximity technique that describes the spatial dependence of model parameters. The methodology is tested for the monthly abcd model at a network of gauges in southeast United States and compared against simpler regression and spatial proximity approaches. Unlike other comparative regionalization studies that only evaluate the skill of regionalized streamflow predictions in ungauged catchments, this study also examines the fit between regionalized parameters and their optimal (i.e. calibrated) values. Interestingly, the spatial error model produces parameter estimates that better resemble the optimal parameters than either of the simpler methods, but the spatial proximity method still yields better hydrologic simulations. The analysis suggests that the superior streamflow predictions of spatial proximity result from its ability to better preserve correlations between compensatory hydrological parameters.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor Y. Gyasi-Agyei     

The SCUBA HAlf Degree Extragalactic Survey – VI. 350-μm mapping of submillimetre galaxies

A follow-up survey using the Submillimetre High-Angular Resolution Camera (SHARC-II) at 350 μm has been carried out to map the regions around several 850-μm-selected sources from the Submillimetre HAlf Degree Extragalactic Survey (SHADES). These observations probe the infrared (IR) luminosities and hence star formation rates in the largest existing, most robust sample of submillimetre galaxies (SMGs). We measure 350-μm flux densities for 24 850-μm sources, seven of which are detected at ≥2.5σ within a 10 arcsec search radius of the 850-μm positions. When results from the literature are included the total number of 350-μm flux density constraints of SHADES SMGs is 31, with 15 detections. We fit a modified blackbody to the far-IR (FIR) photometry of each SMG, and confirm that typical SMGs are dust-rich  ( M _dust≃ 9 × 10⁸ M_⊙)  , luminous  ( L _FIR≃ 2 × 10¹² L_⊙)  star-forming galaxies with intrinsic dust temperatures of ≃35 K and star formation rates of  ≃400 M_⊙ yr⁻¹  . We have measured the temperature distribution of SMGs and find that the underlying distribution is slightly broader than implied by the error bars, and that most SMGs are at 28 K with a few hotter. We also place new constraints on the 350-μm source counts, N ₃₅₀(>25 mJy) ∼ 200–500 deg⁻².