Possible sources of forecast errors generated by the global/regional assimilation and prediction system for landfalling tropical cyclones. Part I: Initial uncertainties

This paper investigates the possible sources of errors associated with tropical cyclone (TC) tracks forecasted using the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System (GRAPES). The GRAPES forecasts were made for 16 landfalling TCs in the western North Pacific basin during the 2008 and 2009 seasons, with a forecast length of 72 hours, and using the default initial conditions (“initials”, hereafter), which are from the NCEP-FNL dataset, as well as ECMWF initials. The forecasts are compared with ECMWF forecasts. The results show that in most TCs, the GRAPES forecasts are improved when using the ECMWF initials compared with the default initials. Compared with the ECMWF initials, the default initials produce lower intensity TCs and a lower intensity subtropical high, but a higher intensity South Asia high and monsoon trough, as well as a higher temperature but lower specific humidity at the TC center. Replacement of the geopotential height and wind fields with the ECMWF initials in and around the TC center at the initial time was found to be the most efficient way to improve the forecasts. In addition, TCs that showed the greatest improvement in forecast accuracy usually had the largest initial uncertainties in TC intensity and were usually in the intensifying phase. The results demonstrate the importance of the initial intensity for TC track forecasts made using GRAPES, and indicate the model is better in describing the intensifying phase than the decaying phase of TCs. Finally, the limit of the improvement indicates that the model error associated with GRAPES forecasts may be the main cause of poor forecasts of landfalling TCs. Thus, further examinations of the model errors are required.     

Identification of shear strength and seismic coefficient by back analyzing surficial slides in the 2004 Mid-Niigata prefecture earthquake

Sliding of natural and artificial slopes generally occurs during or following strong earthquakes. Such sliding is greatly affected by a combination of geological conditions and earthquake loading. Earthquake-induced landslides often cause more damage to infrastructure and human lives than the earthquake itself. Pseudo-static analysis is widely implemented as one of several design methods used in engineering practice to assess the seismic stability of natural and artificial slopes. However, the most important issue of pseudo-static analysis is to select the most appropriate method for measuring seismic coefficient. In order to investigate this, back analysis was conducted for surficial slides subjected to strong ground motion during the 2004 Mid-Niigata prefecture earthquake in Japan. This paper surveyed the stochastic properties of earthquake-induced surficial slides and clearly showed that the obtained results were applicable to back analysis of shear strength and seismic coefficient. In back analysis, soil properties such as soil strength and density and sliding depth were assumed as random variables owing to their uncertainties. Seismic coefficient is also assumed to be a random variable and varies with distance from the epicenter fault line. The analysis of 4504 recorded surficial slides clearly shows a unique relationship of landslide occurrence ratio with slope angle and distance from the epicenter fault line. This study’s results enhance the calculation of the shear strength of weathered soil covering slopes and the horizontal seismic coefficient through back analysis procedure. By considering possible stochastic properties of variables, some case studies were implemented in the back analysis.     

Structure, biomass distribution and trophodynamics of the pelagic ecosystem in the Oyashio region, western subarctic Pacific

Biomass distribution and trophodynamics in the oceanic ecosystem in the Oyashio region are presented and analyzed, combining the seasonal data for plankton and micronekton collected at Site H since 1996 with data for nekton and other animals at higher trophic levels from various sources. The total biomass of biological components including bacteria, phytoplankton, microzooplankton, mesozooplankton, micronekton, fishes/squids and marine birds/mammals was 23 g C m⁻², among which the most dominant component was mesozooplankton (34% of the total), followed by phytoplankton (28%), bacteria (15%) and microzooplankton (protozoans) (14%). The remainder (9%) was largely composed of micronekton and fish/squid. Marine mammals/birds are only a small fraction (0.14%) of the total biomass. Large/medium grazing copepods (Neocalaus spp., Eucalanus bungii and Metridia spp.) accounted for 77% of the mesozooplankton biomass. Based on information about diet composition, predators were assigned broadly into mean trophic level 3–4, and carbon flow through the grazing food chain was established based on the estimated annual production/food consumption balance of each trophic level. From the food chain scheme, ecological efficiencies as high as 24% were calculated for the primary/secondary production and 21% for the secondary/tertiary production. Biomass and production of bacteria were estimated as 1/10 of the respective values for phytoplankton at Site H, but the role of the microbial food chain remains unresolved in the present analysis. As keystone species in the oceanic Oyashio region, Neocalanus spp. are suggested as a vital link between primary production and production of pelagic fishes, mammals and birds.     

Discrimination of spurious self-correlation in nondimensionalized analyses of fluid dynamical data

Nondimensionalization of variables enables us to treat experiment data much more simply and efficiently by decreasing the number of variables. In some cases, trivial conclusions (which Kenney, 1982, called spurious self-correlation) result from a formal application of dimensional analyses. In contrast, in some cases fully significant conclusions can be derived. We first discuss how to construct nondimensional variables retaining the physical meanings of variables. We then propose simple and efficient methods, especially the use of “spurious triangle (SpT)”, to discriminate between significant conclusions and spurious self-correlations in the analysis of nondimensionalized variables.     

Petrological,petrofabric, and oxygen isotopic study of five ungrouped meteorites related to brachinites

Northwest Africa (NWA) 6112, Miller Range (MIL) 090206 (plus its pairs: MIL 090340 and MIL 090405), and Divnoe are olivine‐rich ungrouped achondrites. We investigated and compared their petrography, mineralogy, and olivine fabrics. We additionally measured the oxygen isotopic compositions of NWA 6112. They show similar petrography, mineralogy, and oxygen isotopic compositions and we concluded that these five meteorites are brachinite clan meteorites. We found that NWA 6112 and Divnoe had a c axis concentration pattern of olivine fabrics using electron backscattered diffraction (EBSD). NWA 6112 and Divnoe are suggested to have been exposed to magmatic melt flows during their crystallization on their parent body. On the other hand, the three MIL meteorites have b axis concentration patterns of olivine fabrics. This indicates that the three MIL meteorites may be cumulates where compaction of olivine grains was dominant. Alternatively, they formed as residues and were exposed to olivine compaction. The presence of two different olivine fabric patterns implies that the parent body(s) of brachinite clan meteorites experienced diverse igneous processes.     

Fine‐structures of planar deformation features in shocked olivine: A comparison between Martian meteorites and experimentally shocked basalts as an indicator for shock pressure

We performed shock recovery experiments on an olivine‐phyric basalt at shock pressures of 22.2–48.5 GPa to compare with shock features in Martian meteorites (RBT 04261 and NWA 1950). Highly shocked olivine in the recovered basalt at 39.5 and 48.5 GPa shows shock‐induced planar deformation features (PDFs) composed of abundant streaks of defects. Similar PDFs were observed in olivine in RBT 04261 and NWA 1950 while those in NWA 1950 were composed of amorphous lamellae. Based on the present results and previous studies, the width and the abundance of lamellar fine‐structures increased with raising shock pressure. Therefore, these features could be used as shock pressure indicators while the estimated pressures may be lower limits due to no information of temperature dependence. For Martian meteorites that experienced heavy shocks, the minimum peak shock pressures of RBT 04261 and NWA 1950 are estimated to be 39.5–48.5 GPa and 48.5–56 GPa, respectively, which are found consistent with those estimated by postshock temperatures expected by the presence of brown olivine. We also investigated shock‐recovered basalts preheated at 750 and 800 °C in order to check the temperature effects on shock features. The results indicate a reduction in vitrifying pressure of plagioclase and a pressure increase for PDFs formation in olivine. Further temperature‐controlled shock recovery experiments will provide us better constraints to understand and to characterize various features found in natural shock events.     

The effects of possible contamination by sample holders on samples to be returned by Hayabusa2

Chemical compositions of materials used for new sample holders (vertically aligned carbon nanotubes [VACNTs] and polyimide film), which were developed for the analysis of Hayabusa2‐return samples, were determined by instrumental neutron activation analysis and/or instrumental photon activation analysis, to estimate contamination effects from the sample holders. The synthetic quartz plate used for the sample holders was also analyzed. Ten elements (Na, Al, Cr, Mn, Fe, Ni, Eu, W, Au, and Th) and 14 elements (Na, Al, K, Sc, Ti, Cr, Zn, Ga, Br, Sb, La, Eu, Ir, and Au) could be detected in the VACNTs and polyimide film, respectively. The VACNT data show that contamination by this material with respect to the Murchison meteorite is negligible in terms of the elemental ratios (e.g., Fe/Mn, Na/Al, and Mn/Cr) used for the classification of meteorites due to the extremely low density of VACNTs. However, for the Au/Cr ratio, even small degrees (1.7 wt%) of contamination by VACNTs will change the Au/Cr ratio. Elemental ratios used for the classification of meteorites are only influenced by large amounts of contamination (>60 wt%) of polyimide film, which is unlikely to occur. In contrast, detectable effects on Ti isotopic compositions are caused by >0.1 and >0.3 wt% contamination by VACNTs and polyimide film, respectively, and Hf isotopic changes are caused by >0.1 wt% contamination by VACNTs. The new sample holders (VACNTs and polyimide film) are suitable for chemical classification of Hayabusa2‐return samples, because of their ease of use, applicability to multiple analytical instruments, and low contamination levels for most elements.     

The most primitive mesosiderite Northwest Africa 1878, subgroup 0

All mesosiderites previously reported were subjected to thermal metamorphism and/or partial melting on the parent body. Therefore, their primordial features have been mostly lost. Here, we report detailed petrological and mineralogical features on a mesosiderite, Northwest Africa (NWA) 1878. This meteorite comprises silicate lithology and aggregates of small spheroidal Fe‐Ni metal grains. Silicate lithology typically shows igneous texture without recrystallization features, and mainly consists of low‐Ca pyroxene and plagioclase. Pyroxenes often show normal zoning. Exsolution lamella of augite is rarely noticed and very thin in width, compared with other mesosiderites. A few magnesian olivine grains are encountered without typical corona texture around them. They are not equilibrated with pyroxene on a large scale. Plagioclase shows a wide compositional range. These results show that NWA 1878 hardly experienced thermal metamorphism, distinguished from mesosiderites of subgroups 1–4. Therefore, we propose that this is classified as subgroup 0 mesosiderite. Nevertheless, NWA 1878 was locally subjected to secondary reactions, such as weak reduction of pyroxene and Fe‐Mg diffusion between olivine and pyroxene, on the parent body.