Redshift surveys

Recent results and current plans for redshift surveys were the subject of an RAS discussion meeting on 10 October 2003, organized by Ofer Lahav and Jon Loveday. Sarah Bridle and Alan Heavens report.     

Climate change, adaptation and economic growth

This paper explores the links between economic growth and the impacts of climate change. Inclusive, pro-poor growth is central to the development of low-income countries. There is also a broad consensus that growth and development are important to reduce vulnerability to climate change. Growth does not automatically reduce vulnerability, only the right kind of growth does. The paper aims to develop a better understanding of what the ??right kind of growth?? may be. We find that many growth policies, such as investment in skills and access to finance, indeed reduce vulnerability to climate change. However, climate change calls for some adjustments in growth policy. In particular, investment in infrastructure and efforts to stimulate entrepreneurship and competitive markets must take more of a risk management perspective and recognise climate risks.     

Estimating impacts of warming temperatures on California's electricity system

Despite a clear need, little research has been carried out at the regional-level to quantify potential climate-related impacts to electricity production and delivery systems. This paper introduces a bottom-up study of climate change impacts on California's energy infrastructure, including high temperature effects on power plant capacity, transmission lines, substation capacity, and peak electricity demand. End-of-century impacts were projected using the A2 and B1 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios. The study quantifies the effect of high ambient temperatures on electricity generation, the capacity of substations and transmission lines, and the demand for peak power for a set of climate scenarios. Based on these scenarios, atmospheric warming and associated peak demand increases would necessitate up to 38% of additional peak generation capacity and up to 31% additional transmission capacity, assuming current infrastructure. These findings, although based on a limited number of scenarios, suggest that additional funding could be put to good use by supporting R&D into next generation cooling equipment technologies, diversifying the power generation mix without compromising the system's operational flexibility, and designing effective demand side management programs.     

Long-Term Variability of Volume and Heat Transport in the Nordic Seas: A Model Study

This article presents results from a model study of interannual and decadal variability in the Nordic Seas. Fifty years of simulations were conducted in an initial condition ensemble mode forced with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis. We studied two major events in the interannual and interdecadal variability of the Nordic Seas during the past fifty years: the Great Salinity Anomaly in the 1960s and early 1970s and the warming of the Arctic and subarctic oceans in the late 1990s.

Previous studies demonstrated that the Great Salinity Anomaly observed in the subarctic ocean in 1960 was originally generated by intensified sea-ice and freshwater inflow from the Arctic Ocean. Our model results demonstrate that the increase in the transport of fresh and cold waters through Fram Strait in the 1960s was concurrent with a reduction in the meridional water exchange over the Greenland–Scotland Ridge. The resulting imbalance in salinity and heat fluxes through the strait and over the ridge also contributed to the freshening of the water masses of the Nordic Seas and intensified the Great Salinity Anomaly in the Nordic Seas.

The warming of the Atlantic Waters in the Nordic Seas and Arctic Ocean during the past two decades had an important impact on the variability of these two ocean basins. Some previous observational and model studies demonstrated that the warming of the subpolar Atlantic Ocean in the late 1990s and the meridional transport of the Atlantic Water mass (AW) into the Nordic Seas and Arctic Ocean contributed to this process. At the same time, observations show that the warming of the AW in the Nordic Seas started in the 1980s (i.e., earlier than the warming of the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean). Our model results suggest that this process was triggered by an imbalance in the lateral heat fluxes through Fram Strait and over the Greenland–Scotland Ridge. In the late 1980s the AW transport over the Greenland–Scotland Ridge was stronger than normal while the exchange through Fram Strait was close to normal. The related imbalance in the lateral heat fluxes through the strait and over the ridge warmed the Nordic Seas and caused an increase in the temperature of the AW inflow to the Arctic Ocean in the late 1980s (i.e., about a decade earlier than the warming of the source of the AW in the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean). Thus the model results suggest that the imbalance in lateral heat and salinity fluxes through the strait and over the ridge connecting the Nordic Seas to the North Atlantic and Arctic oceans could amplify the interannual variability in the subarctic ocean.

[Traduit par la rédaction] Cet article présente les résultats d'une étude par modèle de la variabilité interannuelle et décennale dans les mers nordiques. Nous avons effectué des simulations sur une période de cinquante ans en mode d'ensemble de conditions initiales forcé avec les réanalyses des NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction). Nous avons étudié deux événements majeurs survenus dans la variabilité interannuelle et décennale des mers nordiques au cours des cinquante dernières années : la grande anomalie de salinité des années 1960 et du début des années 1970 et le réchauffement des océans Arctique et subarctique vers la fin des années 1990.

Des études précédentes ont démontrées que la grande anomalie de salinité observée dans l'océan subarctique en 1960 a été causée par une intensification de l'apport de glace de mer et d'eau douce depuis l'océan Arctique. Les résultats que nous avons obtenus du modèle montrent que l'accroissement du transport d'eau douce et froide à travers le détroit de Fram dans les années 1960 s'est produit en même temps qu'une réduction dans l’échange méridien d'eau au-dessus de la crête Groenland–Écosse. Le déséquilibre résultant dans les flux de salinité et de chaleur à travers le détroit et au-dessus de la crête a aussi contribué à l'adoucissement des masses d'eau des mers nordiques et a intensifié la grande anomalie de salinité dans les mers nordiques.

Le réchauffement des eaux atlantiques dans les mers nordiques et dans l'océan Arctique au cours des deux dernières décennies a eu un impact important sur la variabilité de ces deux bassins océaniques. Des études observationnelles et par modèle précédentes ont établi que le réchauffement de l'océan Atlantique subpolaire dans les années 1990 et le transport méridien de la masse d'eau atlantique dans les mers nordiques et dans l'océan Arctique ont contribué à ce processus. En même temps, les observations montrent que le réchauffement des eaux atlantiques dans les mers nordiques a commencé dans les années 1980 (c.–à–d. plus tôt que le réchauffement de l'océan Nord-Atlantique subpolaire). Les résultats du modèle suggèrent que ce processus a été déclenché par un déséquilibre dans les flux de chaleur latéraux à travers le détroit de Fram et au-dessus de la crête Groenland–Écosse. À la fin des années 1980, le transport des eaux atlantiques au-dessus de la crête Groenland–Écosse était plus fort que la normale alors que l’échange à travers le détroit de Fram était près de la normale. Le déséquilibre résultant dans les flux de chaleur latéraux à travers le détroit et au-dessus de la crête a réchauffé les mers nordiques et causé une augmentation de la température des eaux atlantiques parvenant à l'océan Arctique à la fin des années 1980 (c.-à-d. environ une décennie avant le réchauffement de la source d'eaux atlantiques dans l'océan Nord-Atlantique subpolaire). Donc, les résultats du modèle suggèrent que le déséquilibre dans les flux de chaleur et de salinité latéraux à travers le détroit et au-dessus de la crête reliant les mers nordiques à l'Atlantique Nord et à l'Arctique pourrait amplifier la variabilité interannuelle dans l'océan subarctique.     

Mechanisms of tropical precipitation biases in climate models

Climate Dynamics - We investigate the possible causes for inter-model spread in tropical zonal-mean precipitation pattern, which is divided into hemispherically symmetric and anti-symmetric modes...     

Surveillance for previously unmonitored organic contaminants in the San Francisco Estuary

The San Francisco Estuary Regional Monitoring Program initiated surveillance monitoring to identify previously unmonitored synthetic organic contaminants in the San Francisco Estuary. Organic extracts of water samples were analyzed using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry in full scan mode. The major contaminant classes identified in the samples were fire retardants, pesticides, personal care product ingredients, and plasticizers. Evidence from the literature suggests that some of these contaminants can persist in the environment, induce toxicity, and accumulate in marine biota and in higher food chain consumers. The major sources of these contaminants into the marine environment are the discharge of municipal and industrial wastewater effluents, urban stormwater, and agricultural runoff. As a proactive effort, it is suggested that surveillance studies be used routinely in monitoring programs to identify and prevent potential problem contaminants from harming the marine environment.     

Application of a New Vertical Profiling Tool (ESASS) for Sampling Groundwater Quality During Hollow‐Stem Auger Drilling

A new tool called ESASS (Enhanced Screen Auger Sampling System) was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey. The use of ESASS, because of its unique U.S. patent design (U.S. patent no. 7,631,705 B1), allows for the collection of representative, depth‐specific groundwater samples (vertical profiling) in a quick and efficient manner using a 0.305‐m long screen auger during hollow‐stem auger drilling. With ESASS, the water column in the flights above the screen auger is separated from the water in the screen auger by a specially designed removable plug and collar. The tool fits inside an auger of standard inner diameter (82.55 mm). The novel design of the system constituted by the plug, collar, and A‐rod allows the plug to be retrieved using conventional drilling A‐rods. After retrieval, standard‐diameter (50.8 mm) observation wells can be installed within the hollow‐stem augers. Testing of ESASS was conducted at one waste‐disposal site with tetrachloroethylene (PCE) contamination and at two reference sites with no known waste‐disposal history. All three sites have similar geology and are underlain by glacial, stratified‐drift deposits. For the applications tested, ESASS proved to be a useful tool in vertical profiling of groundwater quality. At the waste site, PCE concentrations measured with ESASS profiling at several depths were comparable (relative percent difference <25%) to PCE concentrations sampled from wells. Vertical profiling with ESASS at the reference sites illustrated the vertical resolution achievable in the profile system; shallow groundwater quality varied by a factor of five in concentration of some constituents (nitrate and nitrite) over short (0.61 m) distances.     

Isotopic mapping of groundwater perchlorate plumes

Analyses of stable isotope ratios of chlorine and oxygen in perchlorate can, in some cases, be used for mapping and source identification of groundwater perchlorate plumes. This is demonstrated here for large, intersecting perchlorate plumes in groundwater from a region having extensive groundwater perchlorate contamination and a large population dependent on groundwater resources. The region contains both synthetic perchlorate derived from rocket fuel manufacturing and testing activities and agricultural perchlorate derived predominantly from imported Chilean (Atacama) nitrate fertilizer, along with a likely component of indigenous natural background perchlorate from local wet and dry atmospheric deposition. Most samples within each plume reflect either a predominantly synthetic or a predominantly agricultural perchlorate source and there is apparently a minor contribution from the indigenous natural background perchlorate. The existence of isotopically distinct perchlorate plumes in this area is consistent with other lines of evidence, including groundwater levels and flow paths as well as the historical land use and areal distribution of potential perchlorate sources.