Backcasting long-term climate data: evaluation of hypothesis

Most often than not, incomplete datasets or short-term recorded data in vast regions impedes reliable climate and water studies. Various methods, such as simple correlation with stations having long-term time series, are practiced to infill or extend the period of observation at stations with missing or short-term data. In the current paper and for the first time, the hypothesis on the feasibility of extending the downscaling concept to backcast local observation records using large-scale atmospheric predictors is examined. Backcasting is coined here to contrast forecasting/projection; the former is implied to reconstruct in the past, while the latter represents projection in the future. To assess our hypotheses, daily and monthly statistical downscaling models were employed to reconstruct past precipitation data and lengthen the data period. Urmia and Tabriz synoptic stations, located in northwestern Iran, constituted two case study stations. SDSM and data-mining downscaling model (DMDM) daily as well as the group method of data handling (GMDH) and model tree (Mp5) monthly downscaling models were trained with National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) data. After training, reconstructed precipitation data of the past was validated against observed data. Then, the data was fully extended to the 1948 to 2009 period corresponding to available NCEP data period. The results showed that DMDM performed superior in generation of monthly average precipitation compared with the SDSM, Mp5, and GMDH models, although none of the models could preserve the monthly variance. This overall confirms practical value of the proposed approach in extension of the past historic data, particularly for long-term climatological and water budget studies.     

Connectivity as an emergent property of geomorphic systems

Connectivity describes the efficiency of material transfer between geomorphic system components such as hillslopes and rivers or longitudinal segments within a river network. Representations of geomorphic systems as networks should recognize that the compartments, links, and nodes exhibit connectivity at differing scales. The historical underpinnings of connectivity in geomorphology involve management of geomorphic systems and observations linking surface processes to landform dynamics. Current work in geomorphic connectivity emphasizes hydrological, sediment, or landscape connectivity. Signatures of connectivity can be detected using diverse indicators that vary from contemporary processes to stratigraphic records or a spatial metric such as sediment yield that encompasses geomorphic processes operating over diverse time and space scales. One approach to measuring connectivity is to determine the fundamental temporal and spatial scales for the phenomenon of interest and to make measurements at a sufficiently large multiple of the fundamental scales to capture reliably a representative sample. Another approach seeks to characterize how connectivity varies with scale, by applying the same metric over a wide range of scales or using statistical measures that characterize the frequency distributions of connectivity across scales. Identifying and measuring connectivity is useful in basic and applied geomorphic research and we explore the implications of connectivity for river management. Common themes and ideas that merit further research include; increased understanding of the importance of capturing landscape heterogeneity and connectivity patterns; the potential to use graph and network theory metrics in analyzing connectivity; the need to understand which metrics best represent the physical system and its connectivity pathways, and to apply these metrics to the validation of numerical models; and the need to recognize the importance of low levels of connectivity in some situations. We emphasize the value in evaluating boundaries between components of geomorphic systems as transition zones and examining the fluxes across them to understand landscape functioning. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatially resolved STIS spectra of the gravitationally lensed broad absorption line quasar APM08279+5255: the nature of component C and evidence for microlensing

PSR J1806−2125 is a pulsar discovered in the Parkes multibeam pulsar survey with a rotational period of 0.4 s and a characteristic age of 65 kyr. Between MJDs 51462 and 51894 this pulsar underwent an increase in rotational frequency of  Δ ν / ν ≈16×10^-6  . The magnitude of this glitch is ∼2.5 times greater than any previously observed in any pulsar and 16 times greater than the mean glitch size. This Letter gives the parameters of the glitch and compares its properties with those of previously observed events. The existence of such large and rare glitches offers new hope for attempts to observe thermal X-ray emission from the internal heat released following a glitch, and suggests that pulsars which previously have not been observed to glitch may do so on long time-scales .     

Hydrogeochemical and isotopic characterization of the groundwater in the Chari-Baguirmi depression, Republic of Chad

The Chari Baguirmi groundwater in the Republic of Chad is undergoing a steady deterioration both qualitative and quantitative due to climatic (severe droughts) and anthropogenic (overexploitation) constraints. However, this major water resource has not been to date the object of any comprehensive scientific investigation. To fill this gap and consider a sustainable exploitation, a hydrodynamic and hydrochemical study was undertaken. This aquifer is located south of Lake Chad and displays a significant natural piezometric depression. Piezometric campaign on an area of 70,000 km², bounded by Lake Chad, the Chari River, the mountains of Guera and the dunes of Harr, was conducted to understand the hydrodynamics of the groundwater. Water samples were collected on 124 points scattered over the study area. Hydrochemical and isotopic analyses (¹⁸O and ²H) were achieved on all samples. The interpretation of hydrochemical data was done using the Piper diagram, the multivariate analysis (hierarchical ascending classification), the index of base exchanges and ratios of Na/Cl, Na/SO₄, Cl/SO₄, Br/Cl, Sr/Ca. The hydrochemical results coupled with groundwater isotopes data allowed to understand the processes that govern the mineralization and the origin of groundwater salinity. These investigations allowed on the one hand to differentiate between two poles of water mixing and second, to demonstrate that the mineralization process and origin of salinity in the center of depression are both related to the lithology of the geological formations crossed by groundwater flow and climatic events causing evaporation of water from the aquifer.