Human control of climate change

The use of analogies and repeated feedback might help people learn about the dynamics of climate change. In this paper, we study the influence of repeated feedback on the control of a carbon-dioxide (CO₂) concentration to a goal level in a Dynamic Climate Change Simulator (DCCS) using the “bathtub” analogy. DCCS is a simplification of the complex climate system into its essential elements: CO₂ concentration (stock); man-made CO₂ emissions (inflow); and natural CO₂ removal or absorption in the atmosphere (outflow). In a laboratory experiment involving DCCS, we manipulated feedback delays in two ways: the frequency of emission decisions and the rate of CO₂ absorption from the atmosphere (climate dynamics). Our results revealed that participants’ ability to control the CO₂ concentration generally remained poor even in conditions where they were allowed to revise their emission decisions frequently (i.e., every 2?years) and where the climate dynamics were rapid (i.e., 1.6% of CO₂ concentration was removed every year). Participants’ control of the concentration only improved with repeated feedback in conditions of lesser feedback delay. Moreover, the delay due to climate dynamics had a greater effect on participants’ control than the delay due to emission decisions frequency. We provide future research directions and highlight the potential of using simulations like DCCS to help people learn about dynamics of Earth’s climate.     

Quartz‐in‐garnet and Ti‐in‐quartz thermobarometry: Methodology and first application to a quartzofeldspathic gneiss from eastern Papua New Guinea

Mineral inclusions are ubiquitous in metamorphic rocks and elastic models for host‐inclusion pairs have become frequently used tools for investigating pressure–temperature (P–T) conditions of mineral entrapment. Inclusions can retain remnant pressures () that are relatable to their entrapment P–T conditions using an isotropic elastic model and P–T–V equations of state for host and inclusion minerals. Elastic models are used to constrain P–T curves, known as isomekes, which represent the possible inclusion entrapment conditions. However, isomekes require a temperature estimate for use as a thermobarometer. Previous studies obtained temperature estimates from thermometric methods external of the host‐inclusion system. In this study, we present the first P–T estimates of quartz inclusion entrapment by integrating the quartz‐in‐garnet elastic model with titanium concentration measurements of inclusions and a Ti‐in‐quartz solubility model (QuiG‐TiQ). QuiG‐TiQ was used to determine entrapment P–T conditions of quartz inclusions in garnet from a quartzofeldspathic gneiss from Goodenough Island, part of the (ultra)high‐pressure terrane of Papua New Guinea. Raman spectroscopic measurements of the 128, 206, and 464 cm^?1 bands of quartz were used to calculate inclusion pressures using hydrostatic pressure calibrations (), a volume strain calculation (), and elastic tensor calculation (), that account for deviatoric stress. values calculated from the 128, 206, and 464 cm^?1 bands’ hydrostatic calibrations are significantly different from one another with values of 1.8 ± 0.1, 2.0 ± 0.1, and 2.5 ± 0.1 kbar, respectively. We quantified elastic anisotropy using the 128, 206 and 464 cm^?1 Raman band frequencies of quartz inclusions and stRAinMAN software (Angel, Murri, Mihailova, & Alvaro, 2019,  234 :129–140). The amount of elastic anisotropy in quartz inclusions varied by ~230%. A subset of inclusions with nearly isotropic strains gives an average and of 2.5 ± 0.2 and 2.6 ± 0.2 kbar, respectively. Depending on the sign and magnitude, inclusions with large anisotropic strains respectively overestimate or underestimate inclusion pressures and are significantly different (<3.8 kbar) from the inclusions that have nearly isotropic strains. Titanium concentrations were measured in quartz inclusions exposed at the surface of the garnet. The average Ti‐in‐quartz isopleth (19 ± 1 ppm [2σ]) intersects the average QuiG isomeke at 10.2 ± 0.3 kbar and 601 ± 6°C, which are interpreted as the P–T conditions of quartzofeldspathic gneiss garnet growth and entrapment of quartz inclusions. The P–T intersection point of QuiG and Ti‐in‐quartz univariant curves represents mechanical and chemical equilibrium during crystallization of garnet, quartz, and rutile. These three minerals are common in many bulk rock compositions that crystallize over a wide range of P–T conditions thus permitting application of QuiG‐TiQ to many metamorphic rocks.     

An urban geomonumental route focusing on the petrological and decay features of traditional building stones used in Madrid, Spain

The stone traditionally used to build cities contributes to their personality and attests to the geological substrate on which they stand. While stone decay in the built heritage can be attributed to a number of causes, anthropic activity has a particularly significant impact. The geomonumental routes project is one of the initiatives proposed in recent years for urban routes that convey geological fundamentals by observing the rocks present in heritage structures. Its innovative approach addresses traditional stone properties, original quarrying sites and mechanisms of decay. Madrid’s Royal Palace is a fine example of the use of traditional building stone in the centre of the Iberian Peninsula. In the geomonumental route proposed, the building doubles as an in situ laboratory that affords an overview of the main petrological properties of the two traditional stones most commonly used in the city’s built heritage, the forms of decay they are subject and the factors underlying such alterations. This route constitutes a tool for showing the main petrological features and decay forms in traditional building stones found in urban heritage façades, with a special focus on anthropic impact, primarily air pollution and the use of conservation treatments that time has proven to be unsuitable.     

Improving ShakeMap performance by integrating real with synthetic data: tests on the 2009 M w?=?6.3 L’Aquila earthquake (Italy)

The ShakeMap software automatically generates maps of the peak ground motion parameters (shakemaps) and of instrumental intensity soon after an earthquake. Recorded data are fundamental to obtaining accurate results. In case observations are not available, ShakeMap relies on ground motion predictive equations, but due to unmodelled site conditions or finite fault effects, large uncertainties may appear, mainly in the near-source area where damage is relevant. In this paper, we aim to account for source effects in ShakeMap by computing synthetics to be used for integrating observations and ground motion predictive equations when near-source data are not available. To be effective, the computation of synthetics, as well as of the finite fault, should be done in near real time. Therefore, we computed rapid synthetic seismograms, by a stochastic approach, including the main fault features that were obtained through inversion of regional and teleseismic data. The rapidity of calculation is linked to a number of assumptions, and simplifications that need testing before the procedure can run in automatic mode. To assess the performance of our procedure, we performed a retrospective validation analysis considered as case study of the M _w = 6.3 earthquake, which occurred in central Italy on April 6, 2009. In that case, the first shakemaps, generated a few minutes after the earthquake, suffered large uncertainties on ground motion estimates in an area closer to the epicenter due to the lack of near-field data. To verify our approach, we recomputed shakemaps for the L’Aquila earthquake, integrating data available soon after the earthquake at different elapse times with synthetics, and we compared our shaking map with the final shakemap, obtained when all the data were available. Our analysis evidences that (1) when near-source data are missing, the integration of real data with synthetics reduces discrepancies between computed and actual ground shaking maps, mainly in the near-field zone where the damage is relevant and (2) the approach that we adopted is promising in trying to reduce such discrepancies and could be easily implemented in ShakeMap, but some a priori calibration is necessary before running in an automatic mode.     

The role of structural inheritance in continental break-up and exhumation of Alpine Tethyan mantle(Canavese Zone,Western Alps)

The Canavese Zone(CZ)in the Western Alps represents the remnant of the distal passive margin of the Adria microplate,which was stretched and thinned during the Jurassic opening of the Alpine Tethys.Through detailed geological mapping,stratigraphic and structural analyses,we document that the continental break-up of Pangea and tectonic dismemberment of the Adria distal margin,up to mantle rocks exhumation and oceanization,did not simply result from the syn-rift Jurassic extension but was strongly favored by older structu ral inheritances(the Proto-Canavese Shear Zone),which controlled earlier lithospheric weakness.Our findings allowed to redefine in detail(i)the tectono-stratigraphic setting of the Variscan metamorphic basement and the Late Carbonife rous to Early Cretaceous CZ succession,(ii)the role played by inherited Late Carboniferous to Early Triassic structures and(iii)the significance of the CZ in the geodynamic evolution of the Alpine Tethys.The large amount of extensional displacement and crustal thinning occurred during different pulses of Late Carbonife rous-Early Triassic strike-slip tectonics is wellconsistent with the role played by long-lived regional-scale wrench faults(e.g.,the East-Variscan Shear Zone),suggesting a re-discussion of models of mantle exhumation driven by low-angle detachment faults as unique efficient mechanism in stretching and thinning continental crust.     

Meridional motions of magnetic features in the solar photosphere

We cross-correlate pairs of Mt. Wilson magnetograms spaced at intervals of 24–38 days to investigate the meridional motions of small magnetic features in the photosphere. Our study spans the 26-yr period July 1967–August 1993, and the correlations determine longitude averages of these motions, as functions of latitude and time. The time-average of our results over the entire 26-yr period is, as expected, antisymmetric about the equator. It is poleward between 10° and 60°, with a maximum rate of 13 m s^–1, but for latitudes below ±10° it is markedly equatorward, and it is weakly equatorward for latitudes above 60°. A running 1-yr average shows that this complex latitude dependence of the long-term time average comes from a pattern of motions that changes dramatically during the course of the activity cycle. At low latitudes the motion is equatorward during the active phase of the cycle. It tends to increase as the zones of activity move toward the equator, but it reverses briefly to become poleward at solar minimum. On the poleward sides of the activity zones the motion is most strongly poleward when the activity is greatest. At high latitudes, where the results are more uncertain, the motion seems to be equatorward except around the times of polar field reversal. The difference-from-average meridional motions pattern is remarkably similar to the pattern of the magnetic rotation torsional oscillations. The correspondence is such that the zones in which the difference-from-average motion is poleward are the zones where the magnetic rotation is slower than average, and the zones in which it is equatorward are the zones where the rotation is faster.Our results suggest the following characterization: there is a constant and generally prevailing motion which is perhaps everywhere poleward and varies smoothly with latitude. On this is superimposed a cycle-dependent pattern of similar amplitude in which the meridional motions of the small magnetic features are directed away from regions of magnetic flux concentration. This is suggestive of simple diffusion, and of the models of Leighton (1964) and Sheeley, Nash, and Wang (1987). The correspondence between the meridional motions pattern and the torsional oscillations pattern in the magnetic rotation suggests that the latter may be an artifact of the combination of meridional motion and differential rotation.     

Establishing robustness of a spatial dataset in a tolerance‐based vector model

Spatial data are usually described through a vector model in which geometries are represented by a set of coordinates embedded into an Euclidean space. The use of a finite representation, instead of the real numbers theoretically required, causes many robustness problems which are well known in the literature. Such problems are made even worse in a distributed context, where data is exchanged between different systems and several perturbations can be introduced in the data representation. In order to discuss the robustness of a spatial dataset, two implementation models have to be distinguished: the identity and the tolerance model. The robustness of a dataset in the identity model has been widely discussed in the literature and some algorithms of the Snap Rounding (SR) family can be successfully applied in such contexts. Conversely, this problem has been less explored in the tolerance model. The aim of this article is to propose an algorithm inspired by those of the SR family for establishing or restoring the robustness of a vector dataset in the tolerance model. The main ideas are to introduce an additional operation which spreads instead of snapping geometries, in order to preserve the original relation between them, and to use a tolerance region for such an operation instead of a single snapping location. Finally, some experiments on real‐world datasets are presented, confirming how the proposed algorithm can establish the robustness of a dataset.     

Facing climatic and anthropogenic changes in the Mediterranean basin: What will be the medium-term impact on water stress?

The Mediterranean basin has been identified as one of the world's most vulnerable regions to climatic and anthropogenic changes. A methodology accounting for the basin specific conditions is developed to assess the current and future water stress state of this region. The medium-term evolution of water stress is investigated using climatic scenarios and a water-use scenario based on efficiency improvements following the recommendations of the Mediterranean Strategy for Sustainable Development. Currently, the southern and eastern rims are experiencing high to severe water stress. By the 2050 horizon, a 30–50% decline in freshwater resources is simulated over most of the Mediterranean basin. While total water withdrawals would stabilize, or even decrease (10–40%), in several northern catchments, they would double in southern and eastern catchments. These changes should significantly increase water stress over the Mediterranean basin and exacerbate the disparities between rims.     

Decoupling of nutrient and grazer impacts on a benthic estuarine diatom assemblage

Strong interactions between top-down (consumptive) and bottom-up (resource supply) trophic factors occur in many aquatic communities, but these forces can act independently in some microphytobenthic communities. Within benthic estuarine diatom assemblages, the dynamics of these interactions and how they vary with abiotic environmental conditions are not well understood. We conducted a field experiment at two sites with varying habitat characteristics to investigate the interactive effects of grazers and nutrients on benthic estuarine diatoms. We crossed snail (Cerithidea californica) and nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus) addition treatments in enclosures on a restored tidal sandflat and a reference tidal mudflat in Mugu Lagoon, southern California. We repeated the study in summer 2000 and spring 2001 to assess temporal variation in the interactions. Snails caused a large decrease in diatom relative abundance and biomass (estimated as surface area); nutrients increased diatom abundance but did not alter diatom biomass. Snails and nutrients both reduced average diatom length, although the nutrient effect was weaker and temporally variable, occurring in the reference mudflat in the spring. There were few interactions between snail and nutrient addition treatments, suggesting that links between top-down and bottom-up forces on the diatom community were weak. There were no consistent differences in diatom assemblage characteristics between the two study sites, despite marked differences in sediment grain size and other abiotic characteristics between the sites. The strong diatom response to herbivores and weaker responses to enrichment differed from the previous studies where cyanobacteria increased in response to nutrient enrichment, further dissolving the “black box” perception of microphytobenthic communities.