Kriging Prediction Intervals Based on Semiparametric Bootstrap

Kriging is a widely used method for prediction, which, given observations of a (spatial) process, yields the best linear unbiased predictor of the process at a new location. The construction of corresponding prediction intervals typically relies on Gaussian assumptions. Here we show that the distribution of kriging predictors for non-Gaussian processes may be far from Gaussian, even asymptotically. This emphasizes the need for other ways to construct prediction intervals. We propose a semiparametric bootstrap method with focus on the ordinary kriging predictor. No distributional assumptions about the data generating process are needed. A simulation study for Gaussian as well as lognormal processes shows that the semiparametric bootstrap method works well. For the lognormal process we see significant improvement in coverage probability compared to traditional methods relying on Gaussian assumptions.     

Quantitative assessment of short‐term rainfall forecasts from radar nowcasts and MM5 forecasts

Short‐term Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPFs) can be achieved from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models or radar nowcasting, that is the extrapolation of the precipitation at a future time from consecutive radar scans. Hybrid forecasts obtained by merging rainfall forecasts from radar nowcasting and NWP models are potentially more skilful than either radar nowcasts or NWP rainfall forecasts alone. This paper provides an assessment of deterministic and probabilistic high‐resolution QPFs achieved by implementing the Short‐term Ensemble Prediction System developed by the UK Met Office. Both radar nowcasts and hybrid forecasts have been performed. The results show that the performance of both deterministic nowcasts and deterministic hybrid forecasts decreases with increasing rainfall intensity and spatial resolution. The results also show that the blending with the NWP forecasts improves the performance of the forecasting system. Probabilistic hybrid forecasts have been obtained through the modelling of a stochastic noise component to produce a number of equally likely ensemble members, and the comparative assessment of deterministic and probabilistic hybrid forecasts shows that the probabilistic forecasting system is characterised by a higher discrimination accuracy than the deterministic one. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Recruit/algal interaction prevents recovery of overexploited mussel beds: Indirect evidence that post-settlement mortality structures mussel populations

The mechanisms maintaining community structure following an ecosystem shift are poorly understood and we propose that they must inherently be biological. Over-exploitation can provide a “natural experiment” with man as a predator driving a change in community structure, possibly an ecosystem shift. We examined a possible mechanism that maintains algal beds as an alternative state on the east coast of South Africa where the mussel Perna perna has been overexploited. Even on unexploited shores, about 50% of mussel larvae settle onto algae, but it is unclear whether they later recruit into adult beds. On such shores we used two indirect field approaches to understand the fate of recruits, testing whether inhibition of mussel recruitment by macroalgae could constitute a biological mechanism preventing reversion from the algal to the pre-disturbance mussel-dominated state. First, we examined possible ontogenetic migration of recruits from algae to adult mussels, testing the prediction that the ratio large:small recruits in adult beds is greater where algae are liberally interspersed with mussels. Second, we examined whether, like adults, recruits show spatial structure that is related to the distribution of topographic depressions, testing the hypothesis that large and small recruits show different co-variation with depressions, microhabitats where algae commonly occur. We found no evidence that recruits on algae actively move to nearby mussel beds as neither the ratio large:small recruits nor the abundances of small or large recruits showed any relationship with algal cover/variability. Small and large recruits showed different co-variation with topographic depressions on spatially structured transects. Like adults, large recruits commonly exhibited negative relationships with depressions. Thus, large recruits neither occur on algae nor migrate from algae to the primary substratum or onto adult beds. Consequently our results (a) highlight the importance of post-settlement mortality in structuring these mussel populations, and (b) suggest that the interception of larvae by algae forms a biological mechanism that can maintain macroalgal beds that develop following exploitative disturbance by man, thus preventing or at least drastically delaying the natural recovery of mussel beds.     

Backcasting long-term climate data: evaluation of hypothesis

Most often than not, incomplete datasets or short-term recorded data in vast regions impedes reliable climate and water studies. Various methods, such as simple correlation with stations having long-term time series, are practiced to infill or extend the period of observation at stations with missing or short-term data. In the current paper and for the first time, the hypothesis on the feasibility of extending the downscaling concept to backcast local observation records using large-scale atmospheric predictors is examined. Backcasting is coined here to contrast forecasting/projection; the former is implied to reconstruct in the past, while the latter represents projection in the future. To assess our hypotheses, daily and monthly statistical downscaling models were employed to reconstruct past precipitation data and lengthen the data period. Urmia and Tabriz synoptic stations, located in northwestern Iran, constituted two case study stations. SDSM and data-mining downscaling model (DMDM) daily as well as the group method of data handling (GMDH) and model tree (Mp5) monthly downscaling models were trained with National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) data. After training, reconstructed precipitation data of the past was validated against observed data. Then, the data was fully extended to the 1948 to 2009 period corresponding to available NCEP data period. The results showed that DMDM performed superior in generation of monthly average precipitation compared with the SDSM, Mp5, and GMDH models, although none of the models could preserve the monthly variance. This overall confirms practical value of the proposed approach in extension of the past historic data, particularly for long-term climatological and water budget studies.     

Connectivity as an emergent property of geomorphic systems

Connectivity describes the efficiency of material transfer between geomorphic system components such as hillslopes and rivers or longitudinal segments within a river network. Representations of geomorphic systems as networks should recognize that the compartments, links, and nodes exhibit connectivity at differing scales. The historical underpinnings of connectivity in geomorphology involve management of geomorphic systems and observations linking surface processes to landform dynamics. Current work in geomorphic connectivity emphasizes hydrological, sediment, or landscape connectivity. Signatures of connectivity can be detected using diverse indicators that vary from contemporary processes to stratigraphic records or a spatial metric such as sediment yield that encompasses geomorphic processes operating over diverse time and space scales. One approach to measuring connectivity is to determine the fundamental temporal and spatial scales for the phenomenon of interest and to make measurements at a sufficiently large multiple of the fundamental scales to capture reliably a representative sample. Another approach seeks to characterize how connectivity varies with scale, by applying the same metric over a wide range of scales or using statistical measures that characterize the frequency distributions of connectivity across scales. Identifying and measuring connectivity is useful in basic and applied geomorphic research and we explore the implications of connectivity for river management. Common themes and ideas that merit further research include; increased understanding of the importance of capturing landscape heterogeneity and connectivity patterns; the potential to use graph and network theory metrics in analyzing connectivity; the need to understand which metrics best represent the physical system and its connectivity pathways, and to apply these metrics to the validation of numerical models; and the need to recognize the importance of low levels of connectivity in some situations. We emphasize the value in evaluating boundaries between components of geomorphic systems as transition zones and examining the fluxes across them to understand landscape functioning. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Flare positions relative to photospheric magnetic fields

Of 21 flares of importance 1 or greater, observed on 15 days, all were found to lie adjacent to a neutral line in the longitudinal component of photospheric magnetic fields. In most of these cases, the flare consisted of two or more segments separated by the neutral line and located in areas of strong field and high-longitudinal field gradient. In some cases, the flare segments extended into areas of weak-magnetic field and low-field gradient, but maintained an orientation adjacent to a neutral line.Optical and magnetic field records of higher resolution were obtained on 6 July 1965. These observations reveal an excellent correlation between the size, shape, and intensity of the H fine structures and the longitudinal component of the photospheric magnetic fields, except in the vicinity of the neutral line. Sections of the neutral line are marked by long fibrils lying perpendicular to the neutral line or by small filaments lying along the neutral line.The development of a flare of importance 1 in this region appeared to be more precisely related to the neutral line than was found for the flares and magnetic fields observed with lower resolution. The two major segments of this flare lengthened in directions approximately parallel to the neutral line, while simultaneously drifting perpendicularly away from the neutral line. The initial rate of drift systematically varied from 1 to 12 km/sec at a series of positions approximately parallel to the neutral line and corresponding to increasing distance from strong fields. The rate of drift was also observed to decelerate throughout the life of the flare.     

Stage-structured matrix modeling and suggestions for management of atlantic horseshoe crab,Limulus polyphemus, populations on cape cod, massachusetts

The Atlantic horsehoe crab,Limulus polyphemus, is harvested by the biomedical industry for Limulus Amoebocyte Lysate (LAL) a blood compound used to detect endotoxins, for scientific research on vision, and as bait for the eel and conch fisheries. They are also subject to sources of natural mortality such as consumption of eggs by shorebirds and stranding. Recently there has been growing concern over possible declines inLimulus populations along the east coast of the United States. We have used stage-structured matrix modeling to improve our understanding ofLimulus population dynamics in three Cape Cod estuaries (Stage Harbor, Pleasant Bay, and Barnstable Harbor) with differing harvest pressures. The results suggest that a low level of harvest is sustainable, particularly if timing and size-specificity of the harvest are taken into consideration. The model also suggests that efforts should be made to avoid harvesting crabs prior to sexual maturity, as the population growth rate is more sensitive to changes in survival rate of older juveniles than of other stages. The information the model provides could assist local and regional fisheries managers in establishing appropriate regulations for the horseshoe crab fishery.     

Hydrogeochemical and isotopic characterization of the groundwater in the Chari-Baguirmi depression, Republic of Chad

The Chari Baguirmi groundwater in the Republic of Chad is undergoing a steady deterioration both qualitative and quantitative due to climatic (severe droughts) and anthropogenic (overexploitation) constraints. However, this major water resource has not been to date the object of any comprehensive scientific investigation. To fill this gap and consider a sustainable exploitation, a hydrodynamic and hydrochemical study was undertaken. This aquifer is located south of Lake Chad and displays a significant natural piezometric depression. Piezometric campaign on an area of 70,000 km², bounded by Lake Chad, the Chari River, the mountains of Guera and the dunes of Harr, was conducted to understand the hydrodynamics of the groundwater. Water samples were collected on 124 points scattered over the study area. Hydrochemical and isotopic analyses (¹⁸O and ²H) were achieved on all samples. The interpretation of hydrochemical data was done using the Piper diagram, the multivariate analysis (hierarchical ascending classification), the index of base exchanges and ratios of Na/Cl, Na/SO₄, Cl/SO₄, Br/Cl, Sr/Ca. The hydrochemical results coupled with groundwater isotopes data allowed to understand the processes that govern the mineralization and the origin of groundwater salinity. These investigations allowed on the one hand to differentiate between two poles of water mixing and second, to demonstrate that the mineralization process and origin of salinity in the center of depression are both related to the lithology of the geological formations crossed by groundwater flow and climatic events causing evaporation of water from the aquifer.     

Spatially resolved STIS spectra of the gravitationally lensed broad absorption line quasar APM08279+5255: the nature of component C and evidence for microlensing

PSR J1806−2125 is a pulsar discovered in the Parkes multibeam pulsar survey with a rotational period of 0.4 s and a characteristic age of 65 kyr. Between MJDs 51462 and 51894 this pulsar underwent an increase in rotational frequency of  Δ ν / ν ≈16×10^-6  . The magnitude of this glitch is ∼2.5 times greater than any previously observed in any pulsar and 16 times greater than the mean glitch size. This Letter gives the parameters of the glitch and compares its properties with those of previously observed events. The existence of such large and rare glitches offers new hope for attempts to observe thermal X-ray emission from the internal heat released following a glitch, and suggests that pulsars which previously have not been observed to glitch may do so on long time-scales .