Groundwater depth prediction in a shallow aquifer in north China by a quantile regression model

There is a close relationship between groundwater level in a shallow aquifer and the surface ecological environment; hence, it is important to accurately simulate and predict the groundwater level in eco-environmental construction projects. The multiple linear regression (MLR) model is one of the most useful methods to predict groundwater level (depth); however, the predicted values by this model only reflect the mean distribution of the observations and cannot effectively fit the extreme distribution data (outliers). The study reported here builds a prediction model of groundwater-depth dynamics in a shallow aquifer using the quantile regression (QR) method on the basis of the observed data of groundwater depth and related factors. The proposed approach was applied to five sites in Tianjin city, north China, and the groundwater depth was calculated in different quantiles, from which the optimal quantile was screened out according to the box plot method and compared to the values predicted by the MLR model. The results showed that the related factors in the five sites did not follow the standard normal distribution and that there were outliers in the precipitation and last-month (initial state) groundwater-depth factors because the basic assumptions of the MLR model could not be achieved, thereby causing errors. Nevertheless, these conditions had no effect on the QR model, as it could more effectively describe the distribution of original data and had a higher precision in fitting the outliers.     

桐柏杂岩北界剪切带的构造变形特征研究

桐柏杂岩北界剪切带是桐柏—大别造山带发育的一条大型的左行走滑韧性剪切带,发育糜棱岩、超糜棱岩以及强直片麻岩等强变形岩石。通过对剪切带内岩石的矿物共生组合、剪切带的位移量计算、石英的分维数计算、石英颗粒的差异应力以及应变速率的估算等多种方法分析结果显示:桐柏杂岩北界剪切带的位移量为38.3~41.1km;动态重结晶石英颗粒边界统计数据的相关系数R均大于0.96,动态重结晶颗粒边界具有统计意义上的自相似性;分维数为1.207~1.302之间,从剪切带的核部向边部,颗粒粒径和分维值的变化是逐渐变大的。石英的分维值反映出石英的动态重结晶与剪切带密切相关,变质变形由剪切带核部向边部逐渐减弱。桐柏杂岩北界剪切带的差异应力值为23.583~46.983 MPa之间,应变速率为1.70×10~(-11)~9.74×10~(-11)s~(-1)。通过对比剪切带内动态重结晶石英颗粒的粒径、差异应力和应变速率可以发现,差异应力与应变速率表现出一定的正相关性,都随着从剪切带的核部到边部慢慢变小;而石英的粒径则与差异应力和应变速率表现出负相关性,从剪切带核部到边部,随着石英粒径的变大,差异应力和应变速率变小。差异应力越大,导致石英颗粒的受力强度越大,变形越强,表现出来的就是应变速率越强。从显微构造变形角度来研究认识该剪切带,对揭示桐柏—大别造山带的构造演化以及构造模型的建立有着重要的构造意义。     

智利艾斯康迪达铜矿床地质特征与成矿模式

艾斯康迪达矿床是位于智利北部安第斯铜矿带的世界第三大斑岩型铜矿床,铜储量3156.7×104t,其形成主要与始新世晚期—渐新世的石英二长岩-花岗闪长斑岩岩株有关,构造上受多梅科断层系统的控制。该矿床拥有典型斑岩型铜钼矿床的热液蚀变类型,包括钾长石化、黑云母化、石英-绿泥石-绢云母化、泥化与青磐岩化。与成矿有关的侵入岩年龄在38Ma左右,辉钼矿Re-Os年龄为36.1~33.7Ma。流体包裹体特征表明,该区域矿床成矿热液分为早期高温的岩浆热液和晚期岩浆热液与地下水混合的低温低盐度热液2期。高场强元素的负异常、稀土元素La/Yb值特征与Sr-Nd同位素比值特征表明,成矿斑岩是混入少量壳源物质的幔源岩浆演化来的。形成于南北向多梅科断层与北西向线性构造交会位置的转换拉伸环境,对艾斯康迪达矿床成矿斑岩的侵位具有关键性作用。     

中俄原油管道漠大线运营后面临一些冻害问题及防治措施建议

基于世界上几条多年冻土区修建输油气管道的经验,结合我国境内的中俄原油管道漠河－大庆段（漠大线）现场调查、油温监测和探地雷达等勘察结果,研究漠大线运营后可能面临的主要冻害问题、形成过程、影响因素、成灾机制、管道影响,提出预防和防治措施建议及进一步需要研究的主要问题。研究发现,目前漠大线面临的主要冻害问题包括融沉、冻胀丘、冰椎、冻土斜坡、冰刨蚀和潜在冻胀等,在管道持续运行和环境条件改变下,这些冻融灾害可能对管道造成一定的不利影响甚至破坏。现场油温监测显示,在2011年和2012年最低和最高油温分别为0.42 ℃和16.2 ℃,全年的正油温运行是造成目前管道周围冻土融沉的主要原因。冬季部分地段出现的冻胀丘、冰椎以及浮冰对管道形成一定的潜在威胁。研究成果为中俄原油管道漠大线以及规划建设的中俄原油管道二线、中俄输气管道、格尔木－拉萨输油管道改造工程以及其他多年冻土区输油气管道设计、施工、运营和维护提供参考和依据。     

基于隧洞超前地质探测和地应力场反演的岩爆预测研究

岩爆是高地应力地区影响地下工程施工的主要地质灾害,岩爆预测已成为地下工程的世界性难题之一。地层的岩性条件和地应力的大小是影响岩爆发生的两个最根本因素,对这两个因素的准确判别将直接关系到岩爆预测的成功与否。根据工程的区域地质资料,利用FLAC3D程序建立了该区域的数值计算模型,并结合工程现场实测点的主应力数据,采用径向基函数神经网络,反演了计算区域的初始地应力场。基于现场岩石力学试验和TSP203探测技术,获取了岩爆高风险区域的地层岩性条件。最后结合地应力反演数据和TSP探测结果,对掌子面前面长距离范围内的岩爆强度进行精细预测。工程实际应用表明,该方法可操作性强,岩爆预测结果与实际开挖情况较吻合。     

Zircon U-Pb dating of intermediate-acid intrusive rocks in the middle section of Ningzhen district and their metallogenic implicationsEI北大核心CSCD

The Ningzhen metallogenic district is an important part of the Middle-Lower Yangtze River Valley metallogenic belt. LA-ICP-MS zircon U-Pb dating of the three intermediate-acid intrusions, i.e., Anjishan, Xinqiao, and Shima, in the central part of the Ningzhen district, indicates that those intrusions were emplaced in the Late Early Cretaceous, with ages of 107.0±1.1 Ma-108.0±1.6 Ma, 108.0±1.3 Ma, and 102.5±1.1 Ma, respectively. Combined with the molybdenite Re-Os isotope age (106-108 Ma) of porphyry copper deposit in this regions, the Ningzhen district exists an intensively magmatic-metallogenic-thermal event at 102.5-108.0 Ma. The age of this event is similar with the age of the third period of large scale mineralization in South China, however obviously later than the magmatic activity of other ore field (124-148 Ma) in the Middle-Lower Yangtze River Valley metallogenic belt. It is suggested that the tectonic-magmatic-thermal events in the Ningzhen area is formed under regional lithospheric extension environment, which is also consistent with the tectonic background of the third period of large scale mineralization in South China. The zircon U-Pb ages of the intrusions and the Re-Os ages of molybdenites from the porphyry deposits in the study area demonstrate that the Ningzhen district underwent intensive magmatism and hydrothermal mineralization during the period from 102.5 to 108.0 Ma, which is consistent with the third pulse of large scale mineralization in the South China. ©, 2015, Science Press. All right reserved.     

若干冶炼砷渣(场)周边水环境特征研究

对冶炼砒霜产生砷渣堆放后没有扰动砷渣(场)、扰动并已修复的砷渣场及扰动正在修复砷渣场周边水环境进行分析,发现长期堆放后没有被扰动的砷渣(场)周边地表水体达到《地表水环境质量标准》(GB3838—2002)Ⅲ类标准;扰动正在修复和已修复的砷渣(场)周边地表水环境恢复较快,地下水恢复较慢,恢复周期较长。     

大庆市环境地质问题及防治对策研究

通过统计、对比等方法,在大庆市环境地质问题调查研究的基础上,分析、归纳了大庆市存在环境地质问题的类型、规模、产生原因、危害程度等;并有针对性地提出了相应的防治对策.     

A Basal Titanosauriform from the Early Cretaceous of Guangxi, China

Based on a partial postcranial skeleton collected from the Lower Cretaceous Napai Formation of Guangxi, China, we erect a new sauropod taxon, Fusuisaurus zhaoi gen. et sp. nov. The holotype specimen consists of the left ilium, left pubis, anterior caudals, most of the dorsal ribs and distal end of the left femur. Fusuisaurus zhaoi is diagnosed by a unique combination of character states among the known sauropods. It displays several synapomorphies of Titanosauriformes but lacks many derived features seen in other titanosauriforms, suggesting that the new taxon represents the basalmost known titanosauriform and providing new evidence that Titanosauriformes originated from Asia. A size comparison suggests that Fusuisaurus zhaoi is among the largest Early Cretaceous sauropods, providing an important addition to the Early Cretaceous Chinese sauropod diversity.     

Wilson非协调数值流形方法

三维数值流形方法中,当数学覆盖取六面体体单元时流形单元总体位移函数中所包含的多项式并不是完全的,非完全的高次项非但对改善精度不起作用,而且还可能起相反的作用。为此,基于Wilson非协调元理论,推导了附加非协调位移基本项的流形元通用公式,通过内参静力凝聚处理,导出了消除单元内参后的单元应变矩阵、单元刚度矩阵,建立了非协调数值流形方法。数值试验表明,在规则数学网格覆盖下它们能够保证收敛,有较高的精度,从而证明所建方法的可行性。