Evaluation of the Historical Sampling Error for Global Models

Various ensemble-based schemes are employed in data assimilation because they can use the ensemble to estimate the flow-dependent background error covariance. The most common way to generate the real-time ensemble is to use an ensemble forecast; however, this is very time-consuming. The historical sampling approach is an alternative way to generate the ensemble,by picking some snapshots from historical forecast series.With this approach, many ensemble-based assimilation schemes can be used in a deterministic forecast environment. Furthermore, considering the time that it saves, the method has the potential for operational application.However, the historical sampling approach carries with it a special kind of sampling error because, in a historical forecast, the way to integrate the ensemble members is different from the way to integrate the initial conditions at the analysis time(i.e., forcing and lateral boundary condition differences, and ‘warm start' or ‘cold start' differences). This study analyzes the results of an experiment with the Global Regional Assimilation Prediction System-Global Forecast System(GRAPES-GFS), to evaluate how the different integration configurations influence the historical sampling error for global models. The results show that the sampling error is dominated by diurnal cycle patterns as a result of the radiance forcing difference.Although the RMSEs of the sampling error are small, in view of the correlation coefficients of the perturbed ensemble, the sampling error for some variables on some levels(e.g., low-level temperature and humidity, stratospheric temperature and geopotential height and humidity), is non-negligible. The results suggest some caution must be applied, and advice taken, when using the historical sampling approach.     

浙江夏季弱天气尺度强迫背景下午后局地热对流特征分析

利用常规高空观测资料、浙江多普勒雷达产品、ERA5逐小时再分析资料(0.25°×0.25°),统计分析了2015—2021年浙江夏季(6—8月)弱天气尺度强迫背景下午后局地热对流(根据移动速度分为移动型和少动型两类)的时空分布特征、生命周期特征、环境参数特征等。(1)两类热对流触发频次相当,年际变化均较大,但年、月、日变化趋势基本一致,午后出现少动型局地热对流的可能性更大,而傍晚出现移动型局地热对流的可能性更大。(2)局地热对流的触发与地形密切相关,对流高频区位于浙东沿海、浙西北、浙西南山区,浙中北平原和盆地均为低频区,热对流触发频次均随高度增加而减少,多触发于山脉及其附近的中低海拔处,中高海拔地区更容易触发少动型局地热对流。(3)两类对流均在弱垂直风切变环境下即可触发,移动型单体更容易得到发展。     

我国火山岩型铀矿床中铀-多金属组合特征及其意义

火山岩型铀矿床是我国四大工业类型铀矿床之一,在部分铀矿床中存在铀矿与多金属矿共生或伴生组合关系。文章在前人研究基础上,以我国几个典型火山岩型铀矿床为例,综合分析铀-多金属组合的时空关系、成矿规律、矿化分带等特征,结果显示:(1)铀与多金属在区域成矿带上共存,在单个矿床中存在垂向矿化分带现象。(2)在矿床范围内,多金属矿化晕比铀矿化晕范围更大。铀多金属组合特征研究对铀-多金属矿联合勘查具有重要的指导意义。     

Coevolution between Terrestrial Ecosystem and Earth Environment

Coevolution between terrestrial ecosystem and Earth environment is a hot research topic in both biology and geology. Last progresses in these field are reported from following research subjects: evolution of jawed vertebrates(gnathostomata) from Silurian; occurrence of earliest forests from Devonian of Xinjiang; biodiversity of insects in amber from Cretaceous of Myanmar; Evolution of primates and geochemistry studies from Eocene/Oligocene; studies of Longdan fauna from Lingxia basin, Gansu Province of earlier Pleistocene and endemic cloven-breast fishes from Pliocene Tibet; the correlations thick-boned fish,Hsianwenia wui, and the aridification of the Qaidam Basin; monsoon climate and its impact on biodiversity; study on the flora from Mankang, Tibet of Miocene and its palaeoclimate; depositional environment and its impact on the preservation of fossils; contraction of high resolution Stratigraphic series by using data of paleomagnetism and mammal fossils.     

金沙江白格两次滑坡几何形态分析与体积计算

2018年10月10日和11月3日,西藏昌都市江达县波罗乡白格村先后两次发生大规模滑坡并堵塞金沙江,引起社会广泛关注。滑坡的几何形态和体积是滑坡机理研究和滑坡防灾减灾的关键问题和重要基础。为此,本文基于无人机拍摄获取的数字正摄影像（DOM）和DEM、滑坡前的地球电子地形数据（ASTER GDEM）30 m分辨率DEM、分辨率为3 m的Planet卫星影像,以滑坡后的等高线为基准,参考滑坡前的微地貌特征,重绘滑坡前的地形;然后以滑坡前后地形为基础,在ArcGIS软件上进行体积计算,结合AutoCAD绘制滑坡剖面,分析滑坡深部厚度特征。研究表明采用这种方法可以获取滑坡的体积和几何形态特征,可为类似滑坡灾害研究提供参考。     

铜仁地区陡山沱期盖帽碳酸盐岩地质地球化学特征及其成因

通过对贵州铜仁地区陡山沱期盖帽碳酸盐岩进行野外地质观察与室内岩石薄片显微镜下观察和研究,发现盖帽碳酸盐岩普遍发育有晶洞构造、帐篷构造、层状裂隙及包卷状构造等特殊沉积构造,重晶石、黄铁矿广泛发育,δ(13C)(2个研究剖面平均值分别为-4.73×10-3,-4.52×10-3)普遍显著负偏。研究区盖帽碳酸盐岩的地质地球化学特征依据"甲烷渗漏"成因假说能够较合理地解释。     

任意刚性基础竖向动阻抗的简化计算

对于均质弹性半空间上的任意形状的刚性明置和埋置基础,其动刚度和阻尼系数的确定,已有很多这方面的研究。通常基础的任意形状用其外包的规则几何形状代替原有的不规则基础形状,以达到确定动刚度和阻尼系数的目的,而且这两个参数的确定仅仅是对单独刚性基础的,无法考虑相邻基础对其产生的影响。针对上述两方面不完善之处作了进一步探讨,引入相邻基础动力相互作用因子的概念,并利用地基为平面应变假定以求之。推荐的方法经验证,非常准确。     

综合测绘技术在古建筑现状勘察中的应用研究 ——以养心殿东配殿综合测绘项目为例

养心殿东配殿综合测绘,是养心殿研究性保护工作基础测绘的专题研究内容,通过三维激光扫描、近景摄影测量、传统手工测量等技术方法,全面采集了东配殿的空间、纹理、现状形制特征、历史遗迹等文物本体信息.同时,研究了各类测绘技术的适用性、支撑性、效率、成果利用价值、经济性等特性,通过比较分析,得出相应结论:三种测绘技术在全面数据采集过程中,各有优势,都无法相互取代,在技术选择及应用中,需要结合文物建筑的价值特征进行判断、组合,做到空间信息、图案纹理信息、构造细部信息的综合采集.     

三峡库区消落带农户生态休耕经济补偿意愿及影响因素研究

针对农户开发利用消落带耕地对三峡库区的环境影响,从意愿角度对重庆市涪陵区、丰都区247户农户进行实地调研,采用多项Logistic回归模型分析法,定量分析农户对生态休耕经济补偿需求的影响因素,为构建三峡库区环境保护经济补偿机制提供建议。研究结果表明：① 农户的经济补偿需求意愿存在较大差异;② 生态休耕比较效益、家庭人口数、家庭年人均纯收入、生态休耕意愿指数、经济补偿期望值对农户生态休耕经济补偿需求影响显著。研究结论：三峡库区消落带的受访农户对生态休耕经济补偿的需求意愿较强,构建适当的经济补偿机制满足该地区农户的补偿诉求势在必行。