Possible climate change/variability and human impacts,vulnerability of drought-prone regions,water resources and capacity building for Africa

ABSTRACT

This review article discusses the climate, water resources and historical droughts of Africa, drought indices, vulnerability, impact of global warming and land use for drought-prone regions in West, southern and the Greater Horn of Africa, which have suffered recurrent severe droughts in the past. Recent studies detected warming and drying trends in Africa since the mid 20th century. Based on the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), both northern and southern Africa are projected to experience drying, such as decreasing precipitation, runoff and soil moisture in the 21st century and could become more vulnerable to the impact of droughts. The daily maximum temperature is projected to increase by up to 8°C (RCP8.5 of CMIP5), precipitation indices such as total wet day precipitation (PRCPTOT) and heavy precipitation days (R10 mm) could decrease, while warm spell duration (WSDI) and consecutive dry days (CDD) could increase. Uncertainties of the above long-term projections, teleconnections to climate anomalies such as ENSO and the Madden-Julian Oscillation, which could also affect the water resources of Africa, and capacity building in terms of physical infrastructure and non-structural solutions are also discussed. Given that traditional climate and hydrological data observed in Africa are generally limited, satellite data should also be exploited to fill the data gap for Africa in the future.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor N. Ilich     

厦门浔江湾小型底栖生物数量分布及生态意义

本文首次报道 1 998年 5月厦门浔江湾水域 5个测站小型底栖生物调查的初步结果。小型底栖动物的平均密度为 5 9.6 5个 /cm2 ,自由生活的海洋线虫是优势类群 ,占总密度的 89.2 8% ;其次 ,底栖桡足类占 2 .76 % ;其它类群所占比例较少。小型底栖生物的丰度分布为湾口区底 ,湾中部高。文中分析了小型底栖生物具有高类群优势度和低类群多样性特征 ,以及线虫与桡足类的丰度比率与环境的关系 ,提出浔江湾水域环境状况应引起重视。     

玉林夏季高温天气气候特征与环流形势分析

利用近50年（1961～2010年）广西玉林站的气温、风、相对湿度、日照等地面观测资料及历史天气图、NCEP／NCAR再分析资料,统计分析了玉林夏季高温天气的气候特征并探讨出现高温天气的大气环流形势。结果表明：（1）玉林高温天气主要出现在6-9月,3d以上的持续高温主要出现在7～8月,且高温日数的年际差异很大。玉林高温...     

Fe3+纳米胶体颗粒的光吸收边蓝移与溶液中Al/Fe比的关系

合成了n（Al）／n（Fe）和碱化度不同的45个聚合氯化铝铁（PAFC）样品,进行了光谱分析,结果显示光吸收边蓝移或红移以及Fe（Ⅲ）羟基氧化物和Al-Fe共聚体纳米胶体颗粒大小分布与溶液的Al／Fe比和碱化度（B=[OH]／[Al＋Fe]）密切相关。电镜观察和电子衍射分析表明：Al（Ⅲ）的加入使Fe（Ⅲ）羟基氧化物和Al-Fe共聚体纳米胶体颗粒变小、有序度降低是造成PAFE光吸收边蓝移和保持胶体颗粒在亚稳定状态下存在的重要原因。当n（Al）／n（Fe）〉8：2后,PAFC溶液中Fe（Ⅲ）羟基氧化物和Al-Fe共聚体胶体主要以〈10m的纳米颗粒形态存在,对应的光谱能级提高到26000cm^-1以上,且各种曰值下Fe^3＋的光谱能级趋于一致。这表明,在大量Al（Ⅲ）存在条件下,PAFE中Fe3^＋的所处的化学环境相似。点能谱分析显示,n（Al）／n（Fe）=4：6的样品中颗粒物的化学计量比最接近AlOOH,FeOOH,溶液的稳定性最差。     

MODIS遥感监测滇池蓝藻水华分布

以中分辨率的MODIS数据作为遥感影像源,运用蓝藻水华在蓝波段、红波段和近红外波段的光谱特征,使用假彩色合成法（RGB：6-2-1）和归一化植被指数法对滇池的蓝藻水华进行遥感监测。通过星地同步试验,证明了该两种方法的正确性。其中假彩色合成法通过色彩差异表现蓝藻水华,具有视觉效果较好的优点,归一化植被指数法则以数值大小的方式区别水华浓度,该方法建立反演模型后可用于定量研究。     

甘肃巴谢剖面黄土-古土壤的光释光测年研究

光释光（OSL）测年是测定第四纪沉积物年龄的一种新技术。它通过单色光束激发使晶体中储存的电离辐射能释放出来。与热释光（TL）测年相比，OSL测年可以不考虑残留的OSL信号，而且测量具有简便、迅速且准确等优点。本文用细颗粒光释光技术对甘肃巴谢剖面的黄土-古土壤进行了测定，其测年结果与14C测年结果相吻合。这表明，光释光是一项极潜力的年代学技术。     

裂隙-管道介质泉流域水文地质模拟试验

为了深入认识岩溶泉流域的流量过程影响因素和作用机制,以西南岩溶泉流域水文地质概念模型为原型,建立了实验室尺度下的裂隙-管道介质物理模型和数值模型。选取补给雨强、泉口直径、落水洞与开采井的位置作为影响因子,模拟了泉流量过程。试验结果表明:单次降水试验可以观测得到泉流量增加、平稳波动和衰减共三个阶段;同一泉口直径条件下,补给强度对泉流量衰减系数的影响极小,直径为3,4,5,7 mm的泉口直径对应的衰减系数分别为0.003 6,0.006 7,0.011 5,0.012 9,泉口直径与衰减系数呈近似对数关系;落水洞汇流水量占泉流量的比例远大于裂隙;2~3 mm是微小裂隙与较大裂隙的过渡区域,两种类型的介质泉流量过程差异明显;开采井分别位于泉口附近、模型中间位置和落水洞时,泉流量衰减系数依次减小。     

济南东部埠村超单元及其就位机制

分布于济南东部六山圈—大有一带的侵入岩,为燕山早期同一岩浆热事件多次侵入形成的杂岩体,依其形成顺序可划分为山张庄、西杜、大有、赵家鹊山四个单元,归并为埠村超单元。该超单元的形成与幔源基性岩浆上侵及同源岩浆分异产生的中偏基性—中性岩浆多次侵入有关,属热气球式膨胀与火山口塌陷复合就位机制。     

Distribution of indicator dinoflagellates in the East China Sea

-The material discussed in this paper is from four cruises which were carried out in May -June, 1986 (spring), July -August, 1987(summer) .October -November, 1988(autumn)and December, 1987(winter)respectively. Identified dinoflagellates were 141 species (including varieties and forms) belonging to 18 genera.According to the distribution and ecological characteristics of dinoflagellates species, we can divide them into three groups: 1) Hyporhaline-neritic group: they are distributed only in type Ⅲ and typeⅣ water and they perform an evident function indicating continental coast water; 2) Eurythermic-euryhaline group represented by Protoperidinium depressum, Gentium fusus, etc. They are fond of perching in mixing water which character is similar to that of coast water even though they are distributed in different water systems; 3) Hyperthermic-hyperhaline group: on the basis of varying degrees to which they tolerate temperature and salinity, we can divide them into two sub-groups: euryhyperthermic-euryh     

通化集安群石榴子石和黑云母微区化学成分特征及其对变质作用p-T-t轨迹的指示意义

集安群片麻岩中石榴子石和黑云母接触带两侧边缘广泛发育Fe－Mg交换反应所形成的扩散环带,但晶体内部各自保持变质峰期的成分,中温带石榴子石可保留生长环带。经微区化学成分详细研究后,正确运用Grt－Bt温度计获得进变质阶段,变质高峰期和修期后Fe－Mg交换反应停止时的温度条件。按石榴子石和斜长石的微区钙含量变化确定了峰期和退变质阶段压力。据此建立起逆时针形式的变质作用p－T－t轨迹,反映该区早元古代陆壳内裂陷带的闭合过程。