An Upper Limit on Sunspot Activity During the Maunder Minimum

We have estimated the upper and lower limits of sunspot activity, in terms of active day fraction during the Maunder minimum (1645–1710), using raw information on individual daily observations (Hoyt and Schatten, 1998). Establishing the relation between the sunspot activity and active day fraction after 1850, we evaluate the upper limit of annual group sunspot number during the deep Maunder minimum (1645–1700) which does not exceed 4. The earlier finding of a dominant 22-year periodicity during the Maunder minimum is verified and shown to be robust. Also we confirm that the start of the Maunder minimum was very abrupt.     

Search for variable sources using data of “Cold” surveys

We search for variable sources, using the data of the surveys conducted on the RATAN-600 radio telescope in 1980–1994 at 3.94 GHz. To test the radio sources of the RCR (RATAN Cold Refined) catalog for variability, we estimated the long-term variability indices V of the studied objects, their relative variability amplitudes V _χ , and the χ ² probabilities p. Out of about two hundred considered sources, 41 proved to have positive long-term variability indices, suggesting that these sources may be variable. Fifteen objects can be considered to be reliably variable according to the χ ² criterion p > 0.98, three of these sources have χ ² probabilities p ≥ 0.999. The corresponding probabilities for six sources lie in the 0.95 < p < 0.98 interval, and those of the remaining 20 objects in the 0.73 ≤ p < 0.95 interval. Twenty four of 41 objects are variable or possibly variable in the optical range, and five objects are known variable radio sources. We construct the light curves and spectra for the sources with positive long-term variability indices.     

Bayesian improver of a distribution

 An estimate of a distribution obtained from a sample by any method of classical statistics may be erroneous when the sample is not representative of the population. A subjective distribution elicited from an expert may be miscalibrated when information is scanty and experience limited. The Bayesian Improver of a Distribution (BID) exploits a coherence principle and improves, in the ex ante sense, an initial estimate of a continuous distribution by using (i) the known distribution of a related variate and (ii) information about the dependence structure between the two variates. The theory of BID is developed into an applied (ABID) procedure. The ABID estimator is applicable to any continuous, monotone likelihood ratio dependent variates with arbitrary, strictly increasing marginal distributions, parametric or nonparametric; it is analytic in form and easy to implement via statistical or judgmental methods; it converges to the true distribution, provided the initial estimator does, as the sample size n→∞; it outperforms the initial estimator in the expected Kolmogorov–Smirnov distance for all n; and it offers the greatest gains when n is small – precisely when improved estimates are needed most.     

Comparison of cell- and vertex-centered discretization methods for flow in a two-dimensional discrete-fracture–matrix system

Simulations of flow for a discrete-fracture model in fractured porous rocks have gradually become more practical, as a consequence of increased computer power and improved simulation and characterization techniques. Discrete-fracture models can be formulated in a lower-dimensional framework, where the fractures are modeled in a lower dimension than the matrix, or in an equi-dimensional form, where the fractures and the matrix have the same dimension.     

Geochemistry and Crustal Evolution of Volcano-sedimentary Successions and Orthogneisses in the São Gabriel Block, Southernmost Brazil — Relics of Neoproterozoic Magmatic Arcs

Precambrian metaplutonic rocks of the São Gabriel block in southernmost Brazil comprise juvenile Neoproterozoic calc-alkaline gneisses (Cambaí Complex). The connection with associated (ultra-)mafic metavolcanic and metasedimentary rocks (Palma Group) is not well established. The whole complex was deformed during the Brasiliano orogenic cycle. Both metasedimentary and metavolcanic rocks as well as metaplutonic rocks of the Cambaí Complex have been sampled for geochemical analyses in order to get constraints on the tectonic setting of these rocks and to establish a tectonic model for the São Gabriel block and its role during the assembly of West-Gondwana. The major element compositions of the igneous rocks (Palma Group and Cambaí Complex) indicate a subalkaline character; most orthogneisses have a calc-alkaline chemistry; many metavolcanic rocks of the Palma Group show signatures of low-K tholeiitic volcanic arc basalts. Trace element data, especially Ti, Zr, Y, Nb, of most igneous samples from both the lower Palma Group and the Cambaí Complex indicate origin at plate margins, i.e., in a subduction zone environment. This is corroborated by relative enrichment in LREE, low contents of Nb and other high field strength elements and enrichment in LILE like Rb, Ba, and Th. The data indicate the possible existence of two suites, an oceanic island arc and a continental arc or active continental margin. However, some ultramafic samples of the lower Palma Group in the western São Gabriel block indicate the existence of another volcanic suite with intra-plate character which possibly represents relics of oceanic island basalts (OIB). Trace element data indicate contributions from andesitic to mixed felsic and basic arc sources for the metasedimentary rocks. The patterns of chondrite- and N-MORB-normalized spider diagrams resemble the patterns of the igneous rocks, i.e., LILE and LREE enrichment and HFS depletion. The geochemical signatures of most igneous and metasedimentary samples and their low (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr)_t ratios suggest only minor contribution of old continental crust.A geotectonic model for the São Gabriel block comprises east-ward subduction and following accretion of an intra-oceanic island arc to the eastern border of the Rio de la Plata Craton at ca. 880 Ma, and westward subduction beneath the newly formed active continental margin between ca. 750 and 700 Ma. The São Gabriel block represents relics of an early Brasiliano oceanic basin between the Rio de la Plata and Kalahari Cratons. This ocean to the east of the Rio de la Plata Craton might be traced to the north and could possibly be linked with Neoproterozoic juvenile oceanic crust in the western Brasília belt (Goiás magmatic arc).