Probabilistic seismic source inversion from regional landslide evidence

Landslides - In regions of infrequent but potentially damaging seismicity, modern earthquake inventories may be insufficient to provide inputs to seismic hazard analyses (i.e., fault locations and...     

Connectivity of post-fire runoff and sediment from nested hillslopes and watersheds

Wildfire increases the potential connectivity of runoff and sediment throughout watersheds due to greater bare soil, runoff and erosion as compared to pre-fire conditions. This research examines the connectivity of post-fire runoff and sediment from hillslopes (< 1.5 ha; n = 31) and catchments (< 1000 ha; n = 10) within two watersheds (< 1500 ha) burned by the 2012 High Park Fire in northcentral Colorado, USA. Our objectives were to: (1) identify sources and quantify magnitudes of post-fire runoff and erosion at nested hillslopes and watersheds for two rain storms with varied duration, intensity and antecedent precipitation; and (2) assess the factors affecting the magnitude and connectivity of runoff and sediment across spatial scales for these two rain storms. The two summer storms that are the focus of this research occurred during the third summer after burning. The first storm had low intensity rainfall over 11 hours (return interval <1–2 years), whereas the second event had high intensity rainfall over 1 hour (return interval <1–10 years). The lower intensity storm was preceded by high antecedent rainfall and led to low hillslope sediment yields and channel incision at most locations, whereas the high intensity storm led to infiltration-excess overland flow, high sediment yields, in-stream sediment deposition and channel substrate fining. For both storms, hillslope-to-stream sediment delivery ratios and area-normalised cross-sectional channel change increased with the percent of catchment that burned at high severity. For the high intensity storm, hillslope-to-stream sediment delivery ratios decreased with unconfined channel length (%). The findings quantify post-fire connectivity and sediment delivery from hillslopes and streams, and highlight how different types of storms can cause varying magnitues and spatial patterns of sediment transport and deposition from hillslopes through stream channel networks.     

Harzburgite to lherzolite and back again: metasomatic processes in ultramafic xenoliths from the Wesselton kimberlite, Kimberley, South Africa

Garnets from phlogopite harzburgite xenoliths from the Wesselton kimberlite show zoning from low-Ca harzburgitic cores to rims with lherzolitic Ca-Cr relations. Garnet cores are depleted in Y and HREE, but have sinuous REE patterns enriched in the MREE. Rimwards increase in Ca and decrease in Cr and Mg is accompanied by increases in Zr, Y, Ti and HREE. Secondary replacement rims on some garnets consist of garnet with low Ca and Cr, but high Mg, Ti and HREE. The zoning, and the secondary replacement rims, are attributed to different stages of a metasomatic process that has converted harzburgite to lherzolite, at temperatures near 1000 °C. Modelling of zoning profiles suggests that the process can be divided into three parts: (a) Inwards diffusion of Ca, Zr and Y over periods of 10,000–30,000 years, from a fluid depleted in Ti, Ga and Y; (b) formation of overgrowths high in Ca, Zr, Y and Ti, followed by annealing over periods of several thousand years; (c) formation of secondary reaction rims of low-Ca garnet, on very short timescales prior to eruption. The sinuous REE patterns of the garnet cores are regarded as “primary” features reflecting an ancient metasomatic event superimposed on a depleted protolith. The high Zr/Y, Zr/Ti and Zr/Ca of the fluids corresponding to stage (a) are ascribed to the presence of phlogopite and garnet in the matrix near the fluid source (presumed to be a melt, possibly a kimberlite precursor), leading to the development of concentration fronts in the percolating fluid. The overgrowths of stage (b) appear to coincide with the precipitation of phlogopite in the rock. The low Ca of the fluid responsible for the secondary replacement rims of stage (c) may reflect the late precipitation of clinopyroxene or Ca-carbonate as part of the metasomatic assemblage. These processes have significantly modified the modal, major- and trace-element composition of the mantle volume sampled by the Wesselton kimberlite, within <1 Ma of eruption. Recognition of such effects and their distribution in time and space is essential to understanding of the evolution of the subcontinental lithospheric mantle. Received: 11 February 1998 / Accepted: 24 June 1998     

Unusual large-scale phytoplankton blooms in the equatorial Pacific

Unusual large-scale accumulations of phytoplankton occurred across 10,000 km of the equatorial Pacific during the 1998 transition from El Niño to La Niña. The forcing and dynamics of these phytoplankton blooms were studied using satellite-based observations of sea surface height, temperature and chlorophyll, and mooring-based observations of winds, hydrography and ocean currents. During the bloom period, the thermocline (nutricline) was anomalously shallow across the equatorial Pacific. The relative importance of processes that enhanced nutrient flux into the euphotic zone differed between the western and eastern regions of the blooms. In the western bloom region, the important vertical processes were turbulent vertical mixing and wind-driven upwelling. In contrast, the important processes in the eastern bloom region were wave-forced shoaling of nutrient source waters directly into the euphotic zone, along-isopycnal upwelling, and wind-driven upwelling. Advection by the Equatorial Undercurrent spread the largest bloom 4500 km east of where it began, and advection by meridional currents of tropical instability waves transported the bloom hundreds of kilometers north and south of the equator. Many processes influenced the intricate development of these massive biological events. Diverse observations and novel analysis methods of this work advance the conceptual framework for understanding the complex dynamics and ecology of the equatorial Pacific.     

Analysis of COMPTEL gamma-ray burst locations and spectra

In its first three years of operation, the COMPTEL instrument on theCompton Gamma-Ray Observatory has measured the locations (mean accuracy 1°) and spectra (0.75-30 MeV) of 18 gamma-ray bursts and continues to observe new events at a rate of 1/month. With good angular resolution and sensitivity at MeV energies, the growing COMPTEL burst catalog is an important new piece of evidence in the on-going GRB mystery. The COMPTEL burst locations are consistent with an isotropic distribution of sources, yet the spatial coincidence of two of the bursts indicates the possibility of repetition. The COMPTEL burst spectra are in most cases consistent with a single power law model with spectral index in the range 2–3. However, two bursts show evidence of a spectral break in the MeV range. Measurement of rapid variability at MeV energies in the stronger bursts provides evidence that either the sources are nearby (within the Galaxy) or the gamma-ray emission is relativistically beamed. We present an overview of analysis results obtained from the COMPTEL burst catalog concentrating on the search for burst repetition and the implications of highly variable MeV emission.     

Modeling Variably Saturated Subsurface Solute Transport with MODFLOW‐UZF and MT3DMS

The MT3DMS groundwater solute transport model was modified to simulate solute transport in the unsaturated zone by incorporating the unsaturated‐zone flow (UZF1) package developed for MODFLOW. The modified MT3DMS code uses a volume‐averaged approach in which Lagrangian‐based UZF1 fluid fluxes and storage changes are mapped onto a fixed grid. Referred to as UZF‐MT3DMS, the linked model was tested against published benchmarks solved analytically as well as against other published codes, most frequently the U.S. Geological Survey's Variably‐Saturated Two‐Dimensional Flow and Transport Model. Results from a suite of test cases demonstrate that the modified code accurately simulates solute advection, dispersion, and reaction in the unsaturated zone. Two‐ and three‐dimensional simulations also were investigated to ensure unsaturated‐saturated zone interaction was simulated correctly. Because the UZF1 solution is analytical, large‐scale flow and transport investigations can be performed free from the computational and data burdens required by numerical solutions to Richards' equation. Results demonstrate that significant simulation runtime savings can be achieved with UZF‐MT3DMS, an important development when hundreds or thousands of model runs are required during parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis. Three‐dimensional variably saturated flow and transport simulations revealed UZF‐MT3DMS to have runtimes that are less than one tenth of the time required by models that rely on Richards' equation. Given its accuracy and efficiency, and the wide‐spread use of both MODFLOW and MT3DMS, the added capability of unsaturated‐zone transport in this familiar modeling framework stands to benefit a broad user‐ship.     

Response of low‐angle dunes to variable flow

Current understanding of bedform dynamics is largely based on field and laboratory observations of bedforms in steady flow environments. There are relatively few investigations of bedforms in flows dominated by unsteadiness associated with rapidly changing flows or tides. As a consequence, the ability to predict bedform response to variable flow is rudimentary. Using high‐resolution multibeam bathymetric data, this study explores the dynamics of a dune field developed by tidally modulated, fluvially dominated flow in the Fraser River Estuary, British Columbia, Canada. The dunes were dominantly low lee angle features characteristic of large, deep river channels. Data were collected over a field ca 1·0 km long and 0·5 km wide through a complete diurnal tidal cycle during the rising limb of the hydrograph immediately prior to peak freshet, yielding the most comprehensive characterization of low‐angle dunes ever reported. The data show that bedform height and lee angle slope respond to variable flow by declining as the tide ebbs, then increasing as the tide rises and the flow velocities decrease. Bedform lengths do not appear to respond to the changes in velocity caused by the tides. Changes in the bedform height and lee angle have a counterclockwise hysteresis with mean flow velocity, indicating that changes in the bedform geometry lag changes in the flow. The data reveal that lee angle slope responds directly to suspended sediment concentration, supporting previous speculation that low‐angle dune morphology is maintained by erosion of the dune stoss and crest at high flow, and deposition of that material in the dune trough.     

Assessing the response of watersheds to catastrophic (logging) and possible secular (global temperature change) perturbations using sediment-chemical chronologies

Geochemical profiles of sediment cores from two oligotrophic lakes (Elk and Mullett) in northern Lower Michigan were studied to examine the response and recovery of watersheds to large-scale logging that occurred between 1850 and 1920. Specific questions addressed were: can the impact of extensive clear-cutting of forests be recognized in the sediment-chemical chronologies, can states of system stability be identified prior to the logging, and are there indications that the systems are recovering and possibly returning to a stable state? To answer these questions, elements were put into four groups as proxies for watershed runoff or export (e.g., Al, Mg), pollution (e.g., Pb, Cu), redox (e.g., Fe, As), and productivity (e.g., Ca, P). It was observed that vertical patterns of all proxies were influenced by logging and the early increases in concentration of pollution proxies were due to increased watershed export, not pollution. System stability might be recognized by relatively symmetrical vertical patterns among all of the proxies or secular changes of slowly increasing or decreasing vertical concentration trajectories. Some pre-logging trajectories were punctuated by episodes of slightly elevated concentrations that appear to be related to comparatively warmer periods during the Little Ice Age. Iron and Mn enrichments caused by increased watershed runoff might be misinterpreted as paleo-redox horizons. Results are interpreted to indicate that (1) reference conditions may be better defined as the temporal trends among proxy groups and not individual concentrations, (2) simply assuming pre-1800 conditions as a reference may not be appropriate, (3) inter-proxy group comparisons are needed to help for interpretations of intra-proxy group patterns, (4) the possible regime shift identified here might be expected for other ecosystems because of the intensity of human disturbances and secular changes, and (5) without consideration of a possible regime shift, recovery from logging is estimated to be on the order of 75–130 a, but shorter if regime shifts are considered.     

Understanding coastal wetland hydrology with a new regional‐scale,process‐based hydrological model

Coastal wetlands represent an ecotone between ocean and terrestrial ecosystems, providing important services, including flood mitigation, fresh water supply, erosion control, carbon sequestration, and wildlife habitat. The environmental setting of a wetland and the hydrological connectivity between a wetland and adjacent terrestrial and aquatic systems together determine wetland hydrology. Yet little is known about regional‐scale hydrological interactions among uplands, coastal wetlands, and coastal processes, such as tides, sea level rise, and saltwater intrusion, which together control the dynamics of wetland hydrology. This study presents a new regional‐scale, physically based, distributed wetland hydrological model, PIHM‐Wetland, which integrates the surface and subsurface hydrology with coastal processes and accounts for the influence of wetland inundation on energy budgets and evapotranspiration (ET). The model was validated using in situ hydro‐meteorological measurements and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) ET data for a forested and herbaceous wetland in North Carolina, USA, which confirmed that the model accurately represents the major wetland hydrological behaviours. Modelling results indicate that topographic gradient is a primary control of groundwater flow direction in adjacent uplands. However, seasonal climate patterns become the dominant control of groundwater flow at lower coastal plain and land–ocean interface. We found that coastal processes largely influence groundwater table (GWT) dynamics in the coastal zone, 300 to 800 m from the coastline in our study area. Among all the coastal processes, tides are the dominant control on GWT variation. Because of inundation, forested and herbaceous wetlands absorb an additional 6% and 10%, respectively, of shortwave radiation annually, resulting in a significant increase in ET. Inundation alters ET partitioning through canopy evaporation, transpiration, and soil evaporation, the effect of which is stronger in cool seasons than in warm seasons. The PIHM‐Wetland model provides a new tool that improves the understanding of wetland hydrological processes on a regional scale. Insights from this modelling study provide benchmarks for future research on the effects of sea level rise and climate change on coastal wetland functions and services.