Estimation of exploration potential of a metallogenic unit by parametric modeling of the distribution of mineral occurrences when exploration is incomplete. Case study: Walker Lake quadrangle of Nevada and California

Analysis of the distribution of ore-bodies in space can be useful generally in the estimation of mineral resources or the management of exploration. This study is directed to analysis of the undiscovered potential of well known areas of mining district size, referred to as metallogenic units (MUs). The analysis employs an effort-adjusted and truncated probability model for number of occurrences within a subdivision (quadrat) of a MU and Monte Carlo sampling to generate an approximation to the probability distribution for number of occurrences and number of mines within an MU when it is totally explored. Exploration potential for Monitor, Bodie, Aurora, and Camp Douglas MUs (Walker Lake quadrangle of Nevada and California) are estimated to be 9, 4, 7, and 4 mines, respectively.     

Variability of organic δC and C/N in the Mersey Estuary, U.K. and its implications for sea-level reconstruction studies

Microfossil analysis (e.g. diatoms, foraminifera and pollen) represents the cornerstone of Holocene relative sea-level (RSL) reconstruction because their distribution in the contemporary inter-tidal zone is principally controlled by ground elevation within the tidal frame. A combination of poor microfossil preservation and a limited range in the sediment record may severely restrict the accuracy of resulting RSL reconstructions. Organic δ¹³C and C/N analysis of inter-tidal sediments have shown some potential as coastal palaeoenvironmental proxies. Here we assess their viability for reconstructing RSL change by examining patterns of organic δ¹³C and C/N values in a modern estuarine environment. δ¹³C and C/N analysis of bulk organic inter-tidal sediments and vegetation, as well as suspended and bedload organic sediments of the Mersey Estuary, U.K., demonstrate that the two main sources of organic carbon to surface saltmarsh sediments (terrestrial vegetation and tidal-derived particulate organic matter) have distinctive δ¹³C and C/N signatures. The resulting relationship between ground elevation within the tidal frame and surface sediment δ¹³C and C/N is unaffected by decompositional changes. The potential of this technique for RSL reconstruction is demonstrated by the analysis of part of an early Holocene sediment core from the Mersey Estuary. Organic δ¹³C and C/N analysis is less time consuming than microfossil analysis and is likely to provide continuous records of RSL change.     

An early estimate for the size of cycle 23

Two features are found in the modern era sunspot record (cycles 10–22: ca. 1850-present) that may prove useful for gauging the size of cycle 23, the next sunspot cycle, several years ahead of its actual onset. These features include an inferred long-term increase against time of maximum amplitude (RM, the maximum value of smoothed sunspot number for a cycle) and the apparently inherent differing natures of even- and odd-numbered sunspot cycles, especially when grouped consecutively as even-odd cycle pairs. Concerning the first feature, one finds that 6 out of the last 6 sunspot cycles have had RM 110.6 (the median value for the modern era record) and that 4 out of 6 have had RM > 150. Presuming this trend to continue, one anticipates that cycle 23 will likewise have RM 110.6 and, perhaps, RM > 150. Concerning the second feature, one finds that, when one groups sunspot cycles into consecutively paired even-odd cycles, the odd-following cycle has always been the larger cycle, 6 out of 6 times. Because cycle 22 had RM = 158.5, one anticipates that cycle 23 will have RM > 158.5. Additionally, because the average difference between RM(odd) and RM(even) for consecutively paired even-odd cycles is 40.3 units (sd = 14.2), one expects cycle 23 to have RM 162.3 (RM = 198.8 ± 36.5 at the 95% level of confidence). Further, because of the rather strong linear correlation (r = 0,959, se = 13.5) found between RM(odd) and RM(even) for consecutively paired even-odd cycles, one infers that cycle 23 should have RM 176.4 (RM = 213.9 ± 37.5 at the 95% level of confidence). Since large values of RM tend to be associated with fast rising cycles of short ascent duration and high levels of 10.7-cm solar radio flux, cycle 23 is envisioned to be potentially one of the greatest cycles of the modern era, if not the greatest.     

Rainfall induced debris flows in pyroclastic deposits, Campania (southern Italy)

A combination of empirical and physically based hydrological models has been used to analyze historical data on rainfall and debris-flow occurrence in western Campania, to examine the correlation between rainfall and debris-flow events.

Rainfall data from major storms recorded in recent decades in western Campania were compiled, including daily series from several rain gauges located inside landslide areas, supplemented by hourly rainfall data from some of the principal storms.

A two-phase approach is proposed. During phase 1, soil moisture levels have been modelled as the hydrological balance between precipitation and evapotranspiration, on a daily scale, using the method of Thornthwaite [Geograph. Rev. 38 (1948) 55].

Phase 2 is related to the accumulation of surplus moisture from intense rainfall, leading to the development of positive pore pressures. These interactions take place on an hourly time scale by the “leaky barrel” (LB) model described by Wilson and Wiezoreck [Env. Eng. Geoscience, 1 (1995) 11]. In combination with hourly rainfall records, the LB model has been used to compare hydrological effects of different storms. The critical level of retained rain water has been fixed by the timing of debris-flow activity, related to recorded storm events.

New rainfall intensity–duration thresholds for debris-flow initiation in western Campania are proposed. These thresholds are related to individual rain gauge and assume a previously satisfied field capacity condition. The new thresholds are somewhat higher than those plotted by previous authors, but are thought to be more accurate and thus need less conservatism.     

Experimental investigation of the combustive sound source

In this paper, we describe a unique low frequency underwater sound source called the combustive sound source (CSS). In this device, a combustible gas mixture is captured in a combustion chamber and ignited with a spark. The ensuing combustion produces expanding gases which in turn produce high intensity, low frequency acoustic pulses. With high-speed motion pictures of the CSS event, we relate the motion of the bubble to the acoustic waveform. We also compare the measured first bubble period in the CSS pressure signature with the predictions of the Rayleigh-Willis equation, including the dependence of the radiated acoustic waveform on the volume and depth of the bubble. Measurements of the first bubble period agree with Rayleigh-Willis theory in trend, but not in absolute value. In addition, we discuss the variation of the acoustic output with the fuel/oxygen mixture. Finally, several other factors that affect the acoustic output of CSS are discussed. These include the shape of the CSS combustion chamber, the type of oxidizer and fuel, and the ignition source     

Review of Lagrangian stochastic models for trajectories in the turbulent atmosphere

We review the theoretical basis for, and the advantages of, random flight models for the trajectories of tracer particles in turbulence. We then survey their application to calculate dispersion in the principal types of atmospheric turbulence (stratified, vertically-inhomogeneous, Gaussian or non-Gaussian turbulence in the surface layer and above), and show that they are especially suitable for some problems (e.g., quantifying ground emissions).     

Sr and Nd isotopic geochemistry of the early ultramafic–mafic rocks of the Mako bimodal volcanic belt of the Kedougou–Kenieba inlier (Senegal)

The Mako bimodal volcanic belt of the Kédougou–Kéniéba inlier is composed of volcanic basalts and peridotites interbedded by quartzites and limestones intruded by different generations of granitoïds. The early volcanic episode of the belt is constituted of submarine basalts with peridotite similar to those of the oceanic abyssal plains. It is intruded by the Badon Kakadian TTG?granitic batholite dated around 2200 Ma. The second volcanic phase is constituted of basaltic, andesitic, and felsitic flows exhibit structures of aerial volcanic rocks. It is intruded by granites dated between 2160 and 2070 Ma. The general pattern of trace element variation of submarine volcanic rocks is consistent with those of basalts from oceanic plateaus which are the modern equivalent of the Archean greenstones belts. The Nd and Sr isotopic systematics typical of juvenile material indicates that the source of these igneous rocks is derived from a depleted mantle source. These results are consistent with the idea of a major accretion within the West African Craton occurring at about 2.1 Ga and corresponding to an important process of mantle–oceanic lithosphere differentiation.     

Potential impact of ash eruptions on dairy farms from a study of the effects on a farm in eastern Bay of Plenty,New Zealand; implications for hazard mitigation

This paper investigates the impact ash fall would have on dairy farming, based on a study of ‘Tulachard’, a dairy farming operation at Rerewhakaaitu, North Island, New Zealand. It includes analysis of the potential effects on the dairy shed and milking machine, electrical supply and distribution, water supply and distribution, tractors and other farm vehicles, farm buildings (haysheds, pump sheds, implement sheds, etc.), milk-tanker access to the farm and critical needs of dairy cows and farm to keep milking. One of the most vulnerable areas identified in the study was the cooling of milk at the milking shed, pending dairy tanker pick-up. The cooling system’s condenser is exposed to the atmosphere and falling ash would make it highly vulnerable. Laboratory testing with wet and dry ash was conducted to determine its resilience to ash ingestion. It was found to perform satisfactorily during dry testing, but during wet testing significant clogging/blocking of the condenser’s radiator occurred, dramatically reducing airflow through the condenser. Specific mitigation recommendations have been developed that include cleaning with compressed air and adapting farm management techniques to lessen usage of the condenser during an ash-fall event. Specific recommendations for management of dairy farm operation are given to mitigate the effects of an ash-fall event.